My Current Bias, in One Line

I’m fatalistically bullish on risk assets in the near term, because AI CapEx, affluent-driven consumption, and still-elevated nominal growth are structurally good for profits.

Also, very simply when money gets cheaper to borrow, “risk assets” usually perform positively.

At the same time, I’m deeply skeptical of the story we’re telling ourselves about what this implies for the next decade:

X: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1997985136005251370
FULL Article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/my-current-bias-in-one-line

today its 3am (not 4am) @sodnjm 👀

pondering over this and my best answer is always: consistency and being real to yourself (and others), not just particularly as a creator, which i didnt started out to be one. just so happen i became one

i know there are some things that people wont appreciate you (or me) for. i.e. my weekly macro pulses, boring, no immediate alfa, but if you actually keep track every week, it gives you a strong sentiment of where the markets are heading. or so i have gathered this from comments.

pls keep following and reading, i have put lots of effort in there to curate the macro insights, but if you dont read thats fine, i learn along while i am writing too

a plus for myself

so nothing beats what you love yourself for and what others love to hear more about your thoughts.

i dont care, i'll still do me and continuing be myself

haters say hi, lovers get a hug 🤗

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1998095080318779704

liquidity setups adn parallel moves

we are underestimating the power of users/distribution as a moat.

@Weixin_WeChat is the best example of a superapp in web2

then web3 wallets will be the financial superapps for web2 users in web3

note that actual web3 users probably doesnt care about super apps but would appreciate it because we long degeneracy

i think @phantom here is leading by example, laggard wallets like @Rabby_io @MetaMask is catching on.

for those with distribution strength such as new upcoming wallets and neobanks can easily pivot into this category soon @ether_fi @rainbowdotme @useTria @aave @LidoFinance

productizing your users becauase everyone is building a wallet and/or neobank as they soon start to realize that distribution is the most powerful moat.

and in fact many other hardware/software wallets can easily take that lead as well such as @iSafePal @OneKeyHQ @Trezor @Ledger

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1998241025488216459

stablecoins is the beautiful (lie)

they are crypto's only real product and proof we've failed and then succeeded at everything we promised.

we keep building better pipes

we believed, we create new money, free from state control. however, the truth is we've built better plumbing for moving their money.

anything useful at scale gets regulated. stablecoins are becoming too systematically important to stay in the dark. we'll get licensed, compliant, boring and so the cypherpunk dream dies but the infrastructure wins.

i've made peace with it.

we set out to replace central banks. we ended up replacing correspondent banking.

its a smaller revolution, but it's real.

be honest and stop pretending otherwise.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1998337121976017133

rekt got me thinking deeper about how we moralize work itself.

we've inherited this calvinist impulse to justify our labor through transcendent purpose, but most human work throughout history has been neither noble nor ignoble, just necessary.

real estate and medicine contain their corruptions, but the real insight is that all economic coordination involves trade-offs between efficiency and exploitation, innovation and extraction. crypto's transparency about these dynamics is perhaps its most honest feature, not its worst.

we're comparing crypto not to actual alternatives (corporate monotony, rent-seeking industries, bureaucratic stagnation) but to idealized versions of "meaningful work" that exist more in our imagination than reality. even the noble examples, hospice care, political resistance, are available to vanishingly few and often psychologically unsustainable.

but here's the core. value in work stems from three sources: immediate human impact, contribution to improvement, and personal development. crypto skeptics fixate on the first while dismissing the latter two. building infrastructure for financial sovereignty, experimenting with coordination mechanisms, developing technical expertise, these aren't nothing.

the current existential despair is real but misattributed. it's not that crypto is uniquely hollow, it's that we're collectively grappling with the gap between technological possibility and human flourishing. crypto happens to crystallize this tension rather than resolve it.

the strongest defense isn't that crypto is maximally noble, but that it's legitimately useful in a world of imperfect options. sometimes the right question isn't "Is this the highest calling?" but "Does this move things forward?"

progress compounds even when purpose remains elusive.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1998697760196014588?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

IRS in crypto will be first and best use case to onboarding institutions and their billions

It’s Boros

https://x.com/neoo_nav/status/1998328625972891909?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

i've been analyzing the yield infrastructure space and Solid's positioning is interesting.

while 60% of crypto holders earn 0% on stables, $1B+ has already flowed to yield-bearing stablecoin holders.

banks at 0.5%, top defi at 8-14%.

@SolidYield thesis: aggregate @Morpho / @pendle_fi yields + visa rails + non-custodial UX.

no gas, no bridging, passkey auth.

essentially @Revolut UX with DeFi backend.

points program live with 5× early multiplier.

standard airdrop farming playbook but the product actually ships.

worth monitoring if you're yield-positioned.

here is a table of comparison across @Revolut @yield @KASTxyz @ether_fi 👇

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1998763936485880014

this isnt alpha, but in the spirit of thanksgiving and christmas, i strongly urge everyone to take a pause and lend me 3 secs of your time.

not only in crypto, the incentive structure has always designed to extract, not give.

so i thought to give a shoutout to and support my friend @YashasEdu for his fundraising effort to build schools and fund kids education.

its NOT your 20B fdv project alright, actual schools, actual kids getting their education paid for.

@ashen_one is also, another friend of mine who is also building @telagacharity for a few years now and built a school in indonesia entirely from his own money.

i strong urge charitable souls to speak to @ChainforGood, a initiative by @Bybit_Official to fund impact driven projects, to explore further collaboration initiatives.

if you guys need a connect with them, drop me a DM and i would be glad to make things happen.

if you are wondering, this is clearly NOT a paid ad

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1999417214970265769

$AVICI continues to uphold the standards of neobanking for the people

ranked number 3 in terms of number of transactions after @ether_fi and after a very interesting contender @gnosispay

not sure to be embarrassed or proud at this point to see @AviciMoney doing more transactions than @MetaMask

and refer to my thesis earlier about my "fat apps", only few will survive, no doubt $AVICI here could be one of them

convince me otherwise

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1999997030773694968

i picked up $EDEL here as i believe this will go higher, rotate to base

most people are distracted because the market feels bad. that’s usually when these setups form.

$EDEL is probably the only play that make sense in this market on base with huge catalysts: coinbase, testnet, tokenization, team background.

coinbase has been vocal about tokenized equities and base is their distribution layer. that value will overflow to tokenized projects on base.

@edeldotfinance is effectively the only pure-play on onchain lending + borrowing for tokenized stocks, and it’s already built on @base.

@game_for_one shared two near-term catalysts making this a clean setup:

• ~6h: testnet goes live
• ~3 days: coinbase tokenization event, with the spotlight on tokenized assets

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2000192889675214910

Stablecoin 101 Resources

https://x.com/chuk_xyz/status/1912500261404237875

7 GUD READS 📚 (Edition No. 68)

1️⃣ Make Revenue , Not Crime | My 2026 Crypto Plan by
@poopmandefi


2️⃣ 11 Themes of 2025: The Year It Changed for Everyone by
@stacy_muur


3️⃣ Here’s the dark-side of altcoins that no altcoin founder wants you to know about by @cryptodan19

4️⃣ AI, ZK, and the New +$1T Market for Truth by
@jmrphy


5️⃣ A World of 1000 Stablecoin Neobanks by
@proofofnathan


6️⃣ I do not regret spending 8 years of my life in crypto by
@nic_carter


7️⃣ How to set KPIs that work for both bear and bull markets by
@thenouxnoux


Dig into the alpha here 👇

https://x.com/thelearningpill/status/1999841768272203909

OI of @Polymarket is pushing past 300m in december, i believe this will only get higher.

prediction markets will see massive through collateralizing their bets: open interest → collateral value → borrow capacity → more open interest.

once outcome tokens can plug into lending curves, liquidations, and yield, prediction markets stop being a side app and start behaving like a composable rates product.

i expect to see more developments and innovation around predictions markets

i think @gondorfi will be the defi moment for prediction markets: it allows users to take loans on their poly market positions while traders hold onto their bets.

the mechanic is simple:
- yes/no shares (erc-1155, $1 at resolution) become collateral
- you can borrow usdc up to ~50% ltv
- loop to ~2x via borrow→buy→repeat
- lenders get a market-cleared rate (capped ~10–30%)
- liquidations kick around ~77% ltv
- pricing leans conservative (bid + twap)
- for high-vol markets, thresholds decay into expiry to reduce tail risk.

this directly attacks the core bottleneck in prediction markets.

duration kills liquidity.

long-dated “correct” trades used to be capital inefficient and now they can be defi composable to earn yields.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2000365707809391037

Crypto + Macro Stuff I'm Looking At Right Now

https://x.com/rektdiomedes/status/2000351445950906453

Crypto Watchlist for the week ahead

$LIGHTER - Lighter is rumored to launch its token this month, as Coinbase added it to its listing roadmap

$FOLKS - Folks teased the upcoming launch of xChain V2, which will introduce cross-chain vault-based DeFi loans

$JUP - Jupiter will launch its new stablecoin built in collaboration with Ethena next week

Base - Base will make a big announcement on Dec. 18 (maybe about its upcoming $BASE token?)

$IN - INFINIT will launch Prompt-to-DeFi, an AI-powered way to create DeFi strategies, on Dec. 18 for early users

$COIN - Coinbase is set to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks on Dec. 17

$ARB - $19M worth of ARB will be unlocked on Dec. 16

Macro events - Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates next week for the first time in 11 months

$MNT - mETH Protocol, the liquid staking & restaking ETH protocol built by Mantle, will undergo a big upgrade on Dec. 15

MegaETH - MegaETH will open its mainnet to app builders next week

$BTC - Trump is expected to start interviewing candidates for the next FED chair next week

$SNX - Synthetix will launch its perps DEX on Ethereum on Dec. 17

If you enjoyed reading this, a like and a repost would be appreciated🫡

https://x.com/TheDeFinvestor/status/2000132122875474044