Threading on the Edge – Telegram
👻 Threading Daily — 11.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- China will restrict access to Nvidia’s chips
- Biotech sector has biggest rally in a decade
- EU races to bypass Orban on Russian assets
- Ukraine, EU ready to present peace plan to US
- SpaceX plans IPO at $1.5T valuation
- Elon argues for data centers in space
- Paramount makes $108b hostile bid for Warner Bros.

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto surges on eve of FOMC decision
- ETH continues to lead majors, breaks out vs BTC
- Atkins plans quick action on crypto priorities
- Silk Road wallets move BTC after decade
- Circle tests privacy preserving wrapped USDC
- Zcash goes live on Arkham amid criticism
- KindlyMD gets $210m USDT loan from Kraken
- Systemic leverage has been flushed out: Coinbase
- Upbit to increase user assets in cold wallets to 99%
- Stripe’s Tempo testnet goes live
- Stripe acquires Valora wallet team
- Doodles launches 25k mint on SOL
- Rainbow wallet to ICO on Coinlist
- Octra ICO set for $200m FDV
- Fogo announces presale of 2% of supply
- Polymarket accused of double counting volume

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Big Ideas 2026 - Part 1 — a16z
- 2026 Investment Outlook — Archetype
- The Anatomy of a Crypto Neobank — Messari

🔖Raises
- Goblin (Strategic) $1M, Liquidity strategy layer on Aptos < OKX, Gate
- Real Finance $29M, Layer1 blockchain < Nimbus, Magnus
- Surf $15M, Crypto AI command hub < Pantera, Coinbase
- TenX $22M, Multi-blockchain staking platform < Borderless, Chorus

🔖Early Projects
- @CrownBRLV, Bio: Redefining digital money in emerging markets. Issuer of BRLV, a BRL-backed stablecoin built for safety, liquidity, and compliance.
- @ArchDAOfi, Bio: The Market of Ideas: turning governance into a market. Don’t vote, bet on the best ideas. Built on @Base.
- @intelligenceco, Bio: The General Intelligence Company Of New York - Our mission is to enable the one person one billion dollar company cofounder.co

Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo
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👻 Threading Daily — 12.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Fed cuts rate by 25bps, but 3 dissents
- Fed launches $40b bond purchase program
- Silver continues hitting new ATHs
- Oracle disappoints on cloud sales, falls 11%
- AI stocks down after Oracle earnings
- Mexico hits Asian nations with 50% tariffs
- US seizes oil tanker of Venezuelan coast
- Elon confirms SpaceX IPO plans

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto whipsaws then falls on cautious Fed
- IBIT sees largest single day net inflow
- American Bitcoin buys $38m BTC
- BitMine buys $113m more ETH
- Japan moves crypto from payments to securities law
- Bhutan debuts TER, a gold backed token on SOL
- Cascade plans 24/7 perps for all asset classes
- Vitalik ‘impressed’ with Fileverse’s development
- SEI to pre-install crypto app on Xiaomi devices
- Gemini wins CFTC approval for prediction markets
- Meteora buys back $10.6m MET
- Fogo token sale to start at $1bn FDV

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- 17 Things We’re Excited About for Crypto in 2026 — a16z
- No Cap, Just Cap - Introducing Verifiable Finance — Four Pillars
- Stablecoin 101 Resources — chuk_xyz

🔖Raises
- LI.FI $29M, Cross-chain bridge aggregation protocol < Multicoin, CoinFund

🔖Early Projects
- @the_goblin_fi, Bio: Building a native yield layer for @Aptos 🌐 Defi. Check here 👉: linktr.ee/goblin_official
- @railnet_org, Bio: Open yield layer for programmable asset management railnet.org
- @deepsense_live, Bio: The first live-powered prediction markets for trading everything: sports, entertainment, crypto, tech, and more.
- @netbackyard, Bio: Financial Backbone for Compute internetbackyard.com

Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo
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this isnt alpha, but in the spirit of thanksgiving and christmas, i strongly urge everyone to take a pause and lend me 3 secs of your time.

not only in crypto, the incentive structure has always designed to extract, not give.

so i thought to give a shoutout to and support my friend @YashasEdu for his fundraising effort to build schools and fund kids education.

its NOT your 20B fdv project alright, actual schools, actual kids getting their education paid for.

@ashen_one is also, another friend of mine who is also building @telagacharity for a few years now and built a school in indonesia entirely from his own money.

i strong urge charitable souls to speak to @ChainforGood, a initiative by @Bybit_Official to fund impact driven projects, to explore further collaboration initiatives.

if you guys need a connect with them, drop me a DM and i would be glad to make things happen.

if you are wondering, this is clearly NOT a paid ad

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1999417214970265769
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$AVICI continues to uphold the standards of neobanking for the people

ranked number 3 in terms of number of transactions after @ether_fi and after a very interesting contender @gnosispay

not sure to be embarrassed or proud at this point to see @AviciMoney doing more transactions than @MetaMask

and refer to my thesis earlier about my "fat apps", only few will survive, no doubt $AVICI here could be one of them

convince me otherwise

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1999997030773694968
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i picked up $EDEL here as i believe this will go higher, rotate to base

most people are distracted because the market feels bad. that’s usually when these setups form.

$EDEL is probably the only play that make sense in this market on base with huge catalysts: coinbase, testnet, tokenization, team background.

coinbase has been vocal about tokenized equities and base is their distribution layer. that value will overflow to tokenized projects on base.

@edeldotfinance is effectively the only pure-play on onchain lending + borrowing for tokenized stocks, and it’s already built on @base.

@game_for_one shared two near-term catalysts making this a clean setup:

• ~6h: testnet goes live
• ~3 days: coinbase tokenization event, with the spotlight on tokenized assets

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2000192889675214910
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7 GUD READS 📚 (Edition No. 68)

1️⃣ Make Revenue , Not Crime | My 2026 Crypto Plan by
@poopmandefi


2️⃣ 11 Themes of 2025: The Year It Changed for Everyone by
@stacy_muur


3️⃣ Here’s the dark-side of altcoins that no altcoin founder wants you to know about by @cryptodan19

4️⃣ AI, ZK, and the New +$1T Market for Truth by
@jmrphy


5️⃣ A World of 1000 Stablecoin Neobanks by
@proofofnathan


6️⃣ I do not regret spending 8 years of my life in crypto by
@nic_carter


7️⃣ How to set KPIs that work for both bear and bull markets by
@thenouxnoux


Dig into the alpha here 👇

https://x.com/thelearningpill/status/1999841768272203909
OI of @Polymarket is pushing past 300m in december, i believe this will only get higher.

prediction markets will see massive through collateralizing their bets: open interest → collateral value → borrow capacity → more open interest.

once outcome tokens can plug into lending curves, liquidations, and yield, prediction markets stop being a side app and start behaving like a composable rates product.

i expect to see more developments and innovation around predictions markets

i think @gondorfi will be the defi moment for prediction markets: it allows users to take loans on their poly market positions while traders hold onto their bets.

the mechanic is simple:
- yes/no shares (erc-1155, $1 at resolution) become collateral
- you can borrow usdc up to ~50% ltv
- loop to ~2x via borrow→buy→repeat
- lenders get a market-cleared rate (capped ~10–30%)
- liquidations kick around ~77% ltv
- pricing leans conservative (bid + twap)
- for high-vol markets, thresholds decay into expiry to reduce tail risk.

this directly attacks the core bottleneck in prediction markets.

duration kills liquidity.

long-dated “correct” trades used to be capital inefficient and now they can be defi composable to earn yields.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2000365707809391037
👻 Threading Daily — 15.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Silver new ATH, most overbought in 45 years
- Trump considers ending taxes on gambling winnings
- China signals modest 2026 stimulus
- Chinese property giant loses state support
- OpenAI reveals more advanced model

🔖Crypto News
- 10/10 profitable whale puts on $500b crypto longs
- Belarus bans citizens from foreign crypto exchanges
- UK’s FCA prioritizing stablecoins in 2026
- Congress asks SEC to allow crypto in 401ks
- SEC allows DTCC to offer tokenisation service
- CFTC rolls back 2020 guidance on crypto
- JP Morgan creates SOL token for Galaxy debt
- Coinbase-incubated x402 V2 launched
- Coinbase to launch prediction market & stock trading
- Binance API update hints at stock perp contracts
- Binance launches private IOI features
- Klarna taps Privy to add crypto wallet
- YouTube integrates PayPal stablecoin
- Do Kwon sentenced to 15 years prison

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Aave V4: The End of Fragmented Liquidity — Stablewatch
- Top 14 Staking Pools on Solana — Blocmates

🔖Raises
- Testmachine $6.5M, AI-powered Blockchain Security < Blockchange, New Form, Generative, Contango, Delphi
- YO (Series A) $10M, Multi-chain yield optimizer < Foundation, Coinbase...
- HolmesAI (Strategic) $5M, AI agent service platform < CatcherVC, Generative...

🔖Early Projects
- @SectorOneDEX, Bio: Native DLMM DEX launching on @MegaETH The most efficient liquidity layer for traders & LPs.
- @LoraFinance, Bio: Access upside without holding the full asset — on-chain, continuous, flexible.
- @SupernovaDex, Bio: N/A
- @zerohashx, Bio: Where transactions move at the speed of ideas. zerohash.com

Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo
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Crypto Watchlist for the week ahead

$LIGHTER - Lighter is rumored to launch its token this month, as Coinbase added it to its listing roadmap

$FOLKS - Folks teased the upcoming launch of xChain V2, which will introduce cross-chain vault-based DeFi loans

$JUP - Jupiter will launch its new stablecoin built in collaboration with Ethena next week

Base - Base will make a big announcement on Dec. 18 (maybe about its upcoming $BASE token?)

$IN - INFINIT will launch Prompt-to-DeFi, an AI-powered way to create DeFi strategies, on Dec. 18 for early users

$COIN - Coinbase is set to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks on Dec. 17

$ARB - $19M worth of ARB will be unlocked on Dec. 16

Macro events - Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates next week for the first time in 11 months

$MNT - mETH Protocol, the liquid staking & restaking ETH protocol built by Mantle, will undergo a big upgrade on Dec. 15

MegaETH - MegaETH will open its mainnet to app builders next week

$BTC - Trump is expected to start interviewing candidates for the next FED chair next week

$SNX - Synthetix will launch its perps DEX on Ethereum on Dec. 17

If you enjoyed reading this, a like and a repost would be appreciated🫡

https://x.com/TheDeFinvestor/status/2000132122875474044
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GM from Abu Dhabi, Why I’m Betting Everything 2026 on Solana

Breakpoint 2025 is the moment where everything I’ve been saying about Solana for the past few months years gets validated.

And honestly, I can’t wait to watch everyone else scramble to figure out what took them so long, its not SLOW-lana era anymore.

Welcome Breakpoint and Goodbye Breakpoint, see you in London 2026.

My key takeaways from Breakpoint this year 👇

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2000595613197713667

FULL Article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/gm-from-abu-dhabi-why-im-betting
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👻 Threading Daily — 16.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- This week: Inflation, Jobs, Retail sales data
- Stocks slip as Broadcom drives tech stocks lower
- Trump signs EO for a national AI standard
- BoE set to cut rates this week
- US has earned $18T in tariffs: Trump
- China to pump $70b into semiconductor industry
- Land strikes in Venezuela are starting: Trump
- Ukraine offers to drop NATO membership demand
- EU leaders split on US strategy on Ukraine
- 15 killed in Sydney terrorist attack

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto weak, Bitcoin bounces at $85k
- UAE’s largest retailer accepts stablecoins
- S Korea’s FSC delays stablecoin bill
- Spain busts crypto kidnapping ring
- UK treasury drafting new crypto rules
- Tether considers tokenising stock at $500b value
- Coinbase adds LIGHTER to roadmap
- Coinbase prediction market to be powered by Kalshi
- Moodys intros stablecoin ratings
- Kamino unveils new RWA platform
- Jupiter unveils product, infra upgrades
- Talus token debuts at $230m FDV
- Pyth commits 33% of treasury for token buyback

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- 2026 Digital Asset Outlook - Dawn of the Institutional Era — Grayscale
- Who Owns 'Aave': Aave Labs vs Aave DAO — DefiIgnas
- Solana is #1 in Usage KPIs in 2025 — Artemis

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @yolo_markets, Bio: First Ever Oracleless Opinion Markets | No token, do not fall for scams
- @arcnovaai, Bio: Building the first AI terminal on Lighter. NOVA: an intelligence growing in the dark. Early signals detected.
- @anvylai, Bio: building the foundation of physical intelligence for industry

Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo
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2
seeing $META winning the ownership arc, i believe this is a winning model that many projects will emerge winners and I am seeing it win in casino: be the casino owners

i was looking up projects with this model and my DMs picked up something interesting called Bluff

@official_bluff is an on-chain casino ecosystem built by the team behind @Stake, @bet365
- generated $4B in about 5 weeks during the pre-launch.
- already seeing 400k sign ups
- over 100k DaU
- onchain transparency + provable fairness baked in
- you get $1K credit every 24hrs to gamble

“ownership only means something when there is already something worth owning”

$SOSO @SoSoValueCrypto is the perfect example where users got airdrops with up to $50k to some of their most loyal users and Bluff looks like a similar playbook

but i believe this is worth some time to interact, its ZERO risk so interact/gamblefarm the underfarmed,

i am stacking blinkpoints and if i everything checks out 10K BP could equal $1–2K+ depending on multipliers.

be the casino owners, just keep winning

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2000912294122021045
👻 Threading Daily — 17.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Platinum hits 14 year high
- Fed injected $5.2b into US banking
- Asset managers extremely bullish on US stocks
- BoJ likely to start selling ETF holdings from Jan
- Trump admin launches ‘Tech Force’ for AI
- Trump sues BBC for $10b
- Ford to write down $19.5b EV investments
- Tesla hits ATH, Elon’s net worth hits $600b

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto falls amid renewed macro jitters
- Strategy buys $980m BTC, BitMine buys $321m ETH
- Japan’s SBI Holdings to launch stablecoin
- Russia’s Sberbank testing DeFi products
- CME launches spot-quoted XRP, SOL futures
- PayPal intros PYUSD savings vault on Spark
- Ripple taps Wormhole to expand RLUSD to L2s
- Aster launches Shield Mode for private trades
- MetaMask rolls out BTC support
- SOL has faced sustained DDoS attacks this week
- Ondo announces tokenised stocks on SOL
- Sportdotfun ICO goes live today, $60m FDV
- Kalshi launches parlays

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Aave Will Win: 2026 Master Plan — Stani Kulechov
- Crypto is Dead — DougieDeLuca
- Crypto Outlook 2026 — Bitcoin Suisse

🔖Raises
- Space (Strategic) $3M, Leveraged prediction markets < Morningstar, Arctic
- Speed $8M, Bitcoin and Stablecoin payment processor < Tether, Ego Death
- RedotPay (Series B) $107M, Crypto wallet and payment solutions < Goodwater, Pantera...
- Strata (Seed) $3M, Perpetual yield tranching protocol < Maven 11, Faction

🔖Early Projects
- @limoraprotocol, Bio: Decentralized trading (~50x) and lending, via concentrated liquidity (~7x traditional APY), on @base @districtxyz @dydx linktr.ee/limora_protocol
- @MirrorAI_, Bio: Autonomous capital layer. Always-on. Powered by MAI. Multi-strategy vaults across chains. Earn relentlessly.
- @SunbeamMoney, Bio: The Bitcoin Savings Account. Real Yield in BTC by @asymmetryfin x @yearnfi Coming very soon.

Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo
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2
etherfi is starting to look less more like a consumer-fintech distribution machine.

@ether_fi strategy is being a distribution rail, acquiring users through spending, then upsell them into staking/vaults when they’re already living inside the app.

what changed
- still sits at ~$7.75B TVL (today), but the more interesting signal is where usage is compounding: cash.
- cash is positioned as a non-custodial Visa card + app (Apple Pay / Google Pay), meaning spend is no longer an “offchain side quest”
- on the data side, cash has printed multiple $2M+ daily spend milestones (incl. ~$2.2M ATH with $2.74M/day implying $1B annualized volume).
- cumulative card volume is already >$120M

some thoughts on the trend we are seeing
- we’re rotating to cash-flow driven businesses. protocols with recurring revenue (interchange/FX/spread) may get closer to fintech-style multiples.
- this also lines up with the stablecoin payments supercycle narrative: forecasting stablecoin payments into the $1T+ direction this decade, and card rails are one of the easiest.
- plus: as token markets mature, revenue becomes the cleanest way to fund buybacks, incentives, and product expansion

interesting metrics i would watch next
- cash revenue mix vs staking/vaults (and net margin after cashback)
- conversion: spend users → depositors

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2001468688013377978
👻 Threading Daily — 18.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Silver continues hitting ATHs
- Trump: Tariffs have cut US trade deficit by 50%+
- Trump orders ‘complete blockade’ of Venezuela
- US carries out attacks on 3 boats in Pacific
- Germany to approve EUR 50b in military purchases
- EU to abandon combustion engine ban
- Amazon in talks to invest $10b+ in OpenAI
- Tesla hits another ATH

🔖Crypto News
- Memecoin volume down 90% in a year
- HYPE price target $200: Cantor
- Spot XRP ETF surpass $1b inflows
- BitMine buys $141m more ETH
- Crypto ownership falls to 8% in UK: FCA
- Securitize to launch ‘real’ stocks onchain
- OKX rolls out spot margin trading in Europe
- SEC concludes Aave probe
- Visa intros stablecoin settlement via USDC on SOL
- Exodus, MoonPay to launch USD stablecoin
- Kraken launches SportFun token sale
- Worldcoin ID now on Tinder
- Prediction market Probable to launch on BNB chain

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The State of DeFi in 2025 — DL Research
- Crypto Predictions for 2026 — VeradiVerdict
- The Prediction Market Duopoly - An Analysis of Kalshi and Polymarket — Foresight Ventures

🔖Raises
- ETHGAS (Seed) $12M, Infrastructure layer for programmable gas < Polychain, Amber, Stake, BlueYard
- worm.wtf (Pre-Seed) $4.5M, Prediction market built on Solana < 6MV, Alliance, Solana, Borderless...

🔖Early Projects
- @ETHGasOfficial, Bio: Pioneering Ethereum blockspace markets, unlocking profound capital efficiency and precision for builders to power an instant and gasless Ethereum for everyone.
- @Pears_p2p, Bio: Empowering developers to build the future of 🍐 P2P apps with zero infrastructure cost. Revolutionize how we connect, share, and create with Pear Runtime.

Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo
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👍1
A very solid @Polymarket strategy that I’m currently coding.

I tested it manually and it’s extremely effective already, but it will be even more powerful once fully automated in a bot.

Everything happens on the “Bitcoin Up or Down” 15-minute market.
> A YES share pays $1 if BTC is above its reference price, $0 otherwise.
> A NO share pays $1 if BTC is below its reference price, $0 otherwise.

https://x.com/the_smart_ape/status/2001615794111656132
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