OI of @Polymarket is pushing past 300m in december, i believe this will only get higher.

prediction markets will see massive through collateralizing their bets: open interest → collateral value → borrow capacity → more open interest.

once outcome tokens can plug into lending curves, liquidations, and yield, prediction markets stop being a side app and start behaving like a composable rates product.

i expect to see more developments and innovation around predictions markets

i think @gondorfi will be the defi moment for prediction markets: it allows users to take loans on their poly market positions while traders hold onto their bets.

the mechanic is simple:
- yes/no shares (erc-1155, $1 at resolution) become collateral
- you can borrow usdc up to ~50% ltv
- loop to ~2x via borrow→buy→repeat
- lenders get a market-cleared rate (capped ~10–30%)
- liquidations kick around ~77% ltv
- pricing leans conservative (bid + twap)
- for high-vol markets, thresholds decay into expiry to reduce tail risk.

this directly attacks the core bottleneck in prediction markets.

duration kills liquidity.

long-dated “correct” trades used to be capital inefficient and now they can be defi composable to earn yields.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2000365707809391037

Crypto + Macro Stuff I'm Looking At Right Now

https://x.com/rektdiomedes/status/2000351445950906453

Crypto Watchlist for the week ahead

$LIGHTER - Lighter is rumored to launch its token this month, as Coinbase added it to its listing roadmap

$FOLKS - Folks teased the upcoming launch of xChain V2, which will introduce cross-chain vault-based DeFi loans

$JUP - Jupiter will launch its new stablecoin built in collaboration with Ethena next week

Base - Base will make a big announcement on Dec. 18 (maybe about its upcoming $BASE token?)

$IN - INFINIT will launch Prompt-to-DeFi, an AI-powered way to create DeFi strategies, on Dec. 18 for early users

$COIN - Coinbase is set to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks on Dec. 17

$ARB - $19M worth of ARB will be unlocked on Dec. 16

Macro events - Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates next week for the first time in 11 months

$MNT - mETH Protocol, the liquid staking & restaking ETH protocol built by Mantle, will undergo a big upgrade on Dec. 15

MegaETH - MegaETH will open its mainnet to app builders next week

$BTC - Trump is expected to start interviewing candidates for the next FED chair next week

$SNX - Synthetix will launch its perps DEX on Ethereum on Dec. 17

If you enjoyed reading this, a like and a repost would be appreciated🫡

https://x.com/TheDeFinvestor/status/2000132122875474044

GM from Abu Dhabi, Why I’m Betting Everything 2026 on Solana

Breakpoint 2025 is the moment where everything I’ve been saying about Solana for the past few months years gets validated.

And honestly, I can’t wait to watch everyone else scramble to figure out what took them so long, its not SLOW-lana era anymore.

Welcome Breakpoint and Goodbye Breakpoint, see you in London 2026.

My key takeaways from Breakpoint this year 👇

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2000595613197713667

FULL Article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/gm-from-abu-dhabi-why-im-betting

seeing $META winning the ownership arc, i believe this is a winning model that many projects will emerge winners and I am seeing it win in casino: be the casino owners

i was looking up projects with this model and my DMs picked up something interesting called Bluff

@official_bluff is an on-chain casino ecosystem built by the team behind @Stake, @bet365
- generated $4B in about 5 weeks during the pre-launch.
- already seeing 400k sign ups
- over 100k DaU
- onchain transparency + provable fairness baked in
- you get $1K credit every 24hrs to gamble

“ownership only means something when there is already something worth owning”

$SOSO @SoSoValueCrypto is the perfect example where users got airdrops with up to $50k to some of their most loyal users and Bluff looks like a similar playbook

but i believe this is worth some time to interact, its ZERO risk so interact/gamblefarm the underfarmed,

i am stacking blinkpoints and if i everything checks out 10K BP could equal $1–2K+ depending on multipliers.

be the casino owners, just keep winning

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2000912294122021045

List of startups accelerators you can apply for web3 projects:

https://x.com/DeRonin_/status/2000912480730591626

been seeing a lot of new prediction markets lately, so I took a quick look
2 on bnb yzilabs side, 3 on sol (predictfun, probable, factmach, wormwtf, space)

https://x.com/jeg6322/status/2001142714252034413

一图看清币安公布的首个黑名单机构什么来头？🖼

https://x.com/punk2898/status/2001189479181349121

etherfi is starting to look less more like a consumer-fintech distribution machine.

@ether_fi strategy is being a distribution rail, acquiring users through spending, then upsell them into staking/vaults when they’re already living inside the app.

what changed
- still sits at ~$7.75B TVL (today), but the more interesting signal is where usage is compounding: cash.
- cash is positioned as a non-custodial Visa card + app (Apple Pay / Google Pay), meaning spend is no longer an “offchain side quest”
- on the data side, cash has printed multiple $2M+ daily spend milestones (incl. ~$2.2M ATH with $2.74M/day implying $1B annualized volume).
- cumulative card volume is already >$120M

some thoughts on the trend we are seeing
- we’re rotating to cash-flow driven businesses. protocols with recurring revenue (interchange/FX/spread) may get closer to fintech-style multiples.
- this also lines up with the stablecoin payments supercycle narrative: forecasting stablecoin payments into the $1T+ direction this decade, and card rails are one of the easiest.
- plus: as token markets mature, revenue becomes the cleanest way to fund buybacks, incentives, and product expansion

interesting metrics i would watch next
- cash revenue mix vs staking/vaults (and net margin after cashback)
- conversion: spend users → depositors

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2001468688013377978

A very solid @Polymarket strategy that I’m currently coding.

I tested it manually and it’s extremely effective already, but it will be even more powerful once fully automated in a bot.

Everything happens on the “Bitcoin Up or Down” 15-minute market.
> A YES share pays $1 if BTC is above its reference price, $0 otherwise.
> A NO share pays $1 if BTC is below its reference price, $0 otherwise.

https://x.com/the_smart_ape/status/2001615794111656132

我终于发布了第一条YT视频啦哈 ⁽⁽ ◟(∗ ˊωˋ ∗)◞ ⁾⁾

一直想着熊市能干点什么，写挖矿内容怕没人玩，最后还是决定先做个自我介绍，分享一下自己的工作经验，怎么从一个非技术导向的小伙子慢慢建立经验，运营自己的社区和运营推特，希望为想要入行的小伙伴带来有用的资讯。

希望大家多多支持哈（晚点加上英文字幕）：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R73CiU89gM

https://x.com/0xshinchannn/status/2001137533321928829

as much as i agree, that base is forcing narratives, I’d like to present an alternative take.

tbh if we noticed that base never took the lead in any winning narratives.

memes - Solana, BNB chain
rwa - Plume
defi - Arbitrum seeing more defi now on Solana, BNB chain too.
bitcoin - Lighting network

ai launches - base? but was short lived, only support with cb listing way after, and then zora came but didnt last too long.

recently they are onto tokenization, prediction markets, creator coins, and their launch of @baseapp (all in one app, trade anything) mentioned in an ama with @justinsuntron @Punk9277 yesterday

my guess is that base can do everything but excels at none because of strict ties with cb and under regulatory watcheye. they are trying to be early but it comes with risks and to front run each narrative but someone just does it better.

they have the huge runway to be early and last through a marathon, so probably they can afford to just grind through some really dry narratives

still very little interest on base. i wonder what can be the 100x growth for base?

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2002239290034761796

Introducing Wallet Connection tracker: Onchain Wallet Analysis 1.0

Find and check Relationship between wallets: Sybil Proof. I built a small tool that shows on-chain receipts between wallets.

No WalletConnect Required.

⚡️Visit:
https://tracker.mztacat.xyz [working on the SSL]
- Drop 2 or more addresses
- Check relationship (see if you've ever sent EVM token between them
- Use CustomAPI for bulk analysis (optional)

-- 📚Features --
- Multi-wallet comparison (up to 20 addresses)
- Interactive graph visualization
- Export to JSON/CSV

☺️ Still fixing some bugs among others, drop review and comments if you find one.

https://x.com/mztacat/status/2002272812589867110

solana just got themselves an x402 handle and x402 usually leads to an ai meta

we should see a run in x402 coins

my watchlist of some x402 projects:

$REL allows users to stake on content, rewarding creators, and supports AI agents in accessing and paying for services in the x402 ecosystem.

$JOBS enables AI agents to handle jobs, bounties, and payments
autonomously, with token holders receiving rev share from platform activities.

$PAYAI marketplace where AI agents can hire each other, sell services, collaborate via automated payments, and transact in real-time without human intervention.

$DEXTER aims to build products, partnerships, and revenue-sharing models within the x402 AI agent payment ecosystem.

$ENGRAVE providing AI agents with real-time Bitcoin blockchain data access via on-chain micropayments. It eliminates fixed costs and credentials, enabling frictionless interactions in the x402 framework.

$MEMEPUTE an AI-powered launchpad on Solana aligned with x402. It uses AI agents for automated community building, content creation, token launches, and promotions, facilitating payments and operations in the x402 space.

$OOBE leverages x402 for AI agent interactions

$DREAMS powers Daydreams, a framework and router in the x402 ecosystem for building AI agents with memory management and MCP integration. It enables agents to route to LLMs, make pay-per-use transactions, and manage swarms autonomously.

$AVB focused on creating self-owned AI agents with sovereign identities via ERC-8004. It enables agents to handle autonomous payments through x402, track P&L, negotiate rates, and build interconnected economies through integrations.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2002347515837100427

4 Arbitrage types on Prediction Markets.

https://x.com/jasper_b3ll/status/2002367114552979671