🇱🇾 Is Libya on the brink of a new civil war?

With two rival governments at either end of the country, ongoing political ruptures and now, fresh military mobilization, there are fears Libya could be heading toward more violence and fighting.

In a statement, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya said it was monitoring "with concern the recent mobilization of forces in various parts of Libya."

The organization, known as UNSMIL, urged "all parties to exercise maximum restraint and avoid any provocative military actions that could be perceived as offensive."

On Thursday, the Delegation of the European Union to Libya expressed similar concerns. 

"The use of force would harm stability in Libya and lead to human suffering. It should be avoided at all cost," it said in a statement. 

Longtime Libya watchers were more direct, suggesting that, after around four years of relative calm in the country, civil war might be about to break out once again.

The warnings came in response to last week's large mobilization of militias affiliated with one of Libya's two rival administrations.

Since 2014, Libya has been split in two, with opposing governments located in the east and west of the country. A UN-backed administration known as the Government of National Unity, or GNU, is based in Tripoli in the west, and its rival, known as the House of Representatives, is based in the east, in Tobruk.

At various times over the last decade, each government has tried — and failed — to wrest control from the other.

The government in eastern Libya is supported by former warlord-turned-politician Khalifa Haftar, who controls various armed groups in his area. It was Haftar's forces that appeared to be moving toward Tripoli late last week. In 2019, Haftar attacked the city but was eventually forced to sign a cease-fire in 2020.

🔗 https://www.dw.com/en/is-libya-on-the-brink-of-a-new-civil-war/a-69963648

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. naval assets in the Middle East — new map

• ~30% of U.S. Navy fleet en route or in theater
• Guided-missile sub USS Georgia left Crete
• ABE CSG days away

Iranian attack against Israel delayed to allow time for a ceasefire deal & will take place at a later date (NYT)

U.S. force posture today in the Middle East is similar to the surge following the October 2023 attack:

Tehran appears to be allowing mediators time to pursue cease-fire talks: NYT

• By Friday, Israeli intelligence had assessed that Hezbollah and Iran had lowered the level of alertness in their rocket and missile units, according to five Israeli officials.

• Israel now believes the Iranian-led response — already apparently delayed several times — will take place at a later date.

• The officials have cautioned that their assessments are rapidly changing given the fluidity of events. Intelligence has been sparse and changes frequently, and Iran and Hezbollah are known to be constantly assessing the situation.

Supercarrier USS Abraham Lincoln steaming toward the Middle East from the Indo-Pacific, transited the Strait of Malacca & entered the Indian Ocean today, 16 August.

The Wasp ARG is still ripping donuts in the eastern Med, most recently operating northwest of Cyprus.

USS Georgia (SSGN 729) departed Crete, Greece, on/around 15 August.

Ceasefire updates from a senior U.S. official in Doha today on background:

- Put down a final bridging proposal on every issue
- Most constructive 48 hours in many months
- Package is basically there & now in the end game
- Aim to close out this process next week once & for all

U.S. warns of “cataclysmic consequences” should Iran attack Israel.

🧵 Ian Ellis

🇱🇧⚡️📉❗️ — Electricité du Liban: Power cut to basic facilities, including the airport and port

https://fxtwitter.com/AlArabiya_Brk/status/1824815739917783130

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 - Palestinian car was airstriked in west bank Jenin

🌐🎁🚗🇷🇺 - Apparently Elon Musk gifted the president of Chechnya, Ramadan kadeeyrov a Tesla Cybertruck including a shooting system..

#BREAKING
🇱🇧🇱🇧❌🇮🇱 - Hebrew Media:

➡️An Israeli military ship spotted a Hezbollah drone off the city of Caesarea

➡️Hezbollah drone aimed to photograph Netanyahu's personal home

➡️Land military radar systems did not detect Hezbollah's drone, only naval radars detected it

🇮🇱🇺🇸 - Blinken lands in Israel