🇱🇧l🇮🇱 South Lebanon | By Younis Tirawi

With the background of an Arabic children’s song “Come on Sleep”..

Israeli soldiers persist in blowing up homes of displaced Lebanese families in southern Lebanon, despite the ceasefire & cessation of hostilities agreement between Lebanon & Israel.

As you can see, and judge by this house's belongings and clothes, it was owned by a family. Hundreds of houses have been demolished during the ceasefire. @LebUpdate

❗️ Israel officially threaten that they are working to assassinate the leaders of Ansarallah

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz takes responsibility for the murder of the Haniyeh in Iran and says:

"We will severely cripple the Houthis, damage their strategic infrastructure and behead their leaders - just like we did to the Haniyeh, Sinwar and Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza and Lebanon - we will do in Hodeidah and Sana'a." @LebUpdate

🇱🇧l🇮🇱 Al-Manar reporter:

The Lebanese Army Commander will be present at the meeting with the five-member supervisory committee at the Grand Serail tomorrow.

It is very important, for him to ask the committee to pressure the Israeli enemy to remove its flags from our villages and hills, including the flag on the Lebanese Army base in "Tall al-Awida" east of the town of Taybeh. @LebUpdate

📸 Raghib Alameh is a corrupt singer and a man with no honor, that's clear.

But attacking his school in Dahyeh, which students from the community attend, is not the right thing to do or the correct approach.

The school isn't that of "great honor" anyways, and the atmosphere isn't very "good". But regardless, damaging property in this sense is wrong.

🇱🇧 In a meeting with the French, American, and UN officers who are part of the ceasefire committee, Lebanese MP Mikati:

We demand an end to Israeli violations and an immediate withdrawal from the border areas into which they penetrated.

Lebanon is committed to the terms of the understanding, while Israel continues its violations, and this is unacceptable.

We call on the committee to pressure Israel to implement the terms of the understanding, most notably the withdrawal from the occupied areas and the cessation of violations. @LebUpdate

🇱🇧l🇮🇱 Lebanon filed a complaint to the UN Security Council against the repeated violations committed by Israel of the ceasefire, which amounted to more than 816 between November 27 and December 22, 2024. @LebUpdate

📸 Some locals attempted to burn the Christmas tree in Tripoli city, before being stopped by other locals.

There are many places that I can start in explaining these points, but I wanted to start it somewhere else. A few months ago I posted how there is a reason why God chose to take the life of Sayed Hassan on that day, and not in previous years or wars for a lesson we are yet to learn or a wisdom, we are yet to understand. Personally, I do not think this reason was for the sake of Sayyed for him to rest after all those years, nor for the fact that the time has changed and God wants him to leave this earthly world on the climax in face of the mishaps that came after, but because he wants to test us and test the community as a whole.

This has always been God's way of testing, whole communities and not only single individuals. Else, each community once had a prophet or a good man, but this didn't lead to the salvation of that nation.

And the Quran was always clear how God when he damned a nation, he punished it and then had another replace it. This is a serious act, and being replaced is a serious tragedy.

So how the Shia community acts with these events, how true they stay to the Islamic rulings and how true they stay to the righteous path and continue to be willing to sacrifice for the sake of justice and the good causes, stay away from corruption and build a good community, will be the difference between salvation and damnation.

These didn't matter when the situation was better, when stronger, safer, etc.

These things matter when the situation is the opposite of all that. When there is lack of safety, lack of wealth, lack of health, and weakness.

So I won't talk about how the community stayed steadfast, and patient and so on. The good is there and you know it. Let me tackle the bad, because this is what I care about to showcase so we can get over and resolve, etc.

Unfortunately only 17% or so are Lebanese who follow this page, but I'm satisfied enough with even helping 1 person see things better and him/her play a role in educating another and so on.

First of all, I already explained this war and the results, so please read this for details. Some are threads with very important explanations, all truthful and all biased to the truth.

1- Thread about the ceasefire and the reasoning of it

2- What were the Israeli goals in this war

3- Did Hezbullah lose deterrence because this war happened?

4- How can Hezbullah ensure this battle was not lost in favor of Israel

5- What were the conditions under which Hezbullah had to fight with

6- Is ending the war abandoning Gaza and losing deterrence - is Hezbullah making a mistake?

7- What makes this ceasefire agreement worrisome for Lebanese sovereignty

8- What is this war? Why did it happen and why are we here

9- The war in Syria

The below will be a format of questions and answers, to help make this easier

✍ Why does Hezbullah's SG Sheikh Naim insist the war was won, even though Hezbullah was weakened and the current situation is not in Hezbullah's advantage nor does it have leverage like before

After reading the grand goals that Israel has set for this war against Hezbullah and the actions it has taken to implement them, there was only one possible reasonable outcome and that is the complete collapse of Hezbullah as a fighting force.

Let's be clear. This is what was expected if any force in this world had faced what Hezbullah did between August and September, and any force in the world would have collapsed and surrendered.

I have already explained the conditions under which Hezbullah fought but let me repeat.

They fought the strongest military in the Middle East, one of the most advanced in the world, after all their leadership has been killed and all their military commanders killed, under very harsh conditions between mass sabotage and very accurate intelligence-based airstrikes. This is all before the newly advanced Israeli war machine started to fight inside Lebanon and utilitize the lessons learned in 2006 and close-air-support.

Simply, it is beyond remarkable that Hezbullah in 2 months, was able to sustain Israel within 5 km.

(Continued Below) #admin

So when Hezbullah say they won this war, they won their survival, they won seeing a day after the war, they won by foiling the Israeli objective #1, #2, etc...

Sheikh Naim was very transparent and in all his speeches after the ceasefire he said "We won because the Israeli objectives failed". He didn't lie and claim we won by crushing the IDF, we won by destroying X and Y. He was very honest.

Wars are won by objectives, and this war which Hezbullah did everything to avoid (explained this before), is one forced eventually on Hezbullah. For that, Hezbullah didn't have an objective to be judged on, rather only Israel.

It was very costly, it was very painful, and thousands of Hezbullah members sacrificed their lives in it.

They aren't numbers, and everyone of these men had a love story, had a dream, had a house and family, had friends, had something in this life.

They sacrificed dearly to ensure the disadvantage in which this war started in... didn't cause a bad/worse outcome

And so the war ended, the bloodshed stopped, the mass destruction stopped and Hezbullah has retained a lot of its pre-war assets and has been able to take care of the community through some compensations and so on. It retained both support and arms

However as much as they have retained, they have lost and the war ended, although with an Israeli need for a ceasefire, but with an advantage to Israel because they retained the ability to fight with the same intensity like before while Hezbullah was gravelly affected in terms of firepower and manpower and the only way to retain the same composure is with a lot of sacrifices which they are willing to do but are unnecessary if the war can end and a ceasefire can last until better conditions exist

So it's in Hezbullah's advantage to look weaker now to delude the Jews and give them their high and ecstacy, and avoid a new conflict under these uncomfortable conditions. There is a lot of learning to do, a lot of obstacles to navigate and alot of gaps to fill

To conclude this, two points:
1- Not all victories are the same. Some are clear and some are murky. Some are bright as the sun and some are dim as a firefly in the night sky. Some are cheap and some are costly.

So yes, this victory isn't like that of 2006 or 2000. It is a bitter conclusion of a conflict with the best possible outcomes under the worst conditions.

2- Hezbullah was very understanding of these, and didn't act arrogant and carry a victory festival. This is a good indicator that they aren't trying to sell delusions.

For what our opponents and enemies in Lebanon claim, we do not care

They were never accepting of our bright victories, they will not understand our very dim and unclear ones.

Unclear why? Because the whole middle east is shifting into a new one, and surviving this tide is something important

For those who aren't part of the assets or players shaping it, and are only capitalizing the results, they might always be intact but they will always be weak within their core

Before I talk about the new middle east, let me briefly talk about the Axis of Resistance and the weakness it now faces

✍The Resistance axis, between a paper tiger and a real force to be reckoned with. What's the reality?

To understand this you shouldn't view the resistance from the perspective of the West nor the perspective of the Media, but rather the reality of who they are

Why do I say this? Because a lot of what Hezbullah was claimed to be, is what Israel and the US claimed it was, and not what it expressed about itself

For example, in one of the speeches of Sayed Hassan Nasrallah he talked about the Israeli claim that Hezbullah has 150-300k rocket, and he laughed by saying: set 8ena Wala set fo2or

A Lebanese phrase meaning "better to be called rich, than being called poor". It ended here. What I'm implying, is that they exaggerated the enemy, to exaggerate the claimed fall that they want to persuade you with. (Continued) #admin

Talking in very brief, the Axis of the resistance was a group of countries and non-state actors that agreed to set any possible differences aside and joint efforts to strengthen each other for the sake of preserving themselves under the flag of being those who are today willing to fight the Israeli occupation and build a force that can detter threats and make a difference.

There was no treaty, or a union. There were was no overall commander or one path for all. There was mutual understanding of a will to cooperate and produce results.

This is about Iran, Yemen, and Syria as states, Hezbullah, Hamas, PIJ, and the Iraqi resistance as non-state actors.

Anything other was a small player and has minimalist to no impact. People used to show of 2 dozen different symbols of groups, but those were nothing but names with less then 2 dozen people.

Each had their own domestic issues, their own plans, their own oversight. Neither Iran had a say in what Syria does, nor had Hezbullah a say in what Hamas does. Hamas was the most rogue, Hezbullah was the most senior, Ansrallah was the most shining example, and Syria was the most independent of all. Syria had its own identity, so did Iran, so did Hamas, etc.

Despite all that, there was sincere cooperation between all, based on the common path that what affects one affects all and there is a moral obligation to help another. Everyone of them wanted the best for the other.

Setting Syria as a state aside, those who form the Axis weren't born out of strength or might.

Hezbullah was born small and weak and gradually become what it was on 6-Oct, Hamas was born small and weak, etc etc.

They took decades facing superpowers to reach the glorious days of liberation, and force the enemy to submit to their demand. Yemen's Ansrallah were always persecuted and only after 2015 did they rise to power and the war was against a large coalition which only ended a few years ago. Iran, has been under immense and devasting sanctions. And so on..

So the Axis was born, as the saying says from under the ash to burn the occupation and those who led the coalition of oppression. And only bit by bit did they expand and grow, to the power that they were and what the enemy described it.

But as they grew, vulnerabilities grew and the type of enemies changed and the conflicts between 2011-2018 set a toll on all. Their growth was correlated with the threat, and wasn't independent of it. This should be clear, and the timeline indicates so.

And all of them, fought an enemy that was much greater in terms of manpower and military advantages. Iran was fighting in some terms the most powerful empire in the history of the world, US. Hezbullah was fighting Israel, with its mighty army and so on. Ansarllah fought the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its local subjects and a coalition of 20+ countries.

They all won battles and war through patience, faith in good, and sacrifice and forced the enemy into defeated by making it lose the will to fight and making it concede to their demands. The will to fight and the futility to continue the war, is through what they always won.

It is a resistance, where the weaker rise against the bigger 'evil' foe.

When Hezbullah liberated south Lebanon in 2000 or won in 2006, they won by forcing the Israeli enemy to give in and making it lose its will to fight. Will is what makes a difference, no matter how weak or strong you are. Those wars ended and Israel still existed and its army were not severely damaged.

Yemen won the war through the same conditions, forcing Saudi Arabia to lose the will to fight and raising the risk of strategic losses (Aramco, etc). The war ended and Saudi Arabia is now intact, and its power is growing.

Understand what I mean here? I'm not making those victories cheap, on the contrary. They are grand glorious victories because the "weaker" triumphed over the "greater".

I'm not relying on this reasoning because we today are facing mishaps, but because this is how it was and is. The fight against the West or East is hard. (Continued) #admin

For this to be clear, you have to understand things in pure military terms. But this doesn't mean I'm tackling this from a materialistic terms, because it was the faith, patience and pure hearted and honest work that brought the past and inshallah the future victories. It was what made the eye defeat the needle.

So don't listen to defeats, don't accept them and make them outcasts. Don't listen to those telling you that we are a minority and we should let the sunni majority either live up to their role or let them stay idle. We work based on what's right, and God has on various occasions talked about how a small group defeated another by being true to God and his rules.

What I'm tackling here is the naked truth, and through which strength shouldn't be created to nullifying the materialistic gap and advance the resistance to produce more victories aided by the faith and honesty.

In terms of military might, modern warfare has grew to become very lethal and although there were no breakthroughs in the past 2 decades, technology has filled many gaps that used to give the resistance a rare advantage under a set of conditions.

These technological advances weren't FPVs or drones alone, I'll be back to that. They were a collection of things in various sectors, and I'll tackle them for the case of Hezbullah's recent war.

I didn't have the chance to talk to anyone from them nor do I have an insight on their experiences in this war, let's say so...but some of the new obstacles were. This will not include intelligence collection or spies:

1- Better Israeli radars that gave fairly accurate location of launch sites, which allowed the Israeli airforce to engage Hezbullah faster and more accurately.

I watched a video from 2006, of a Hezbullah rocket launcher firing from the woods. First a jet attacked it, it missed. A second time. It missed. On the third time, a drone attacked it and it was finally successful.

I also heard about a launcher that survived the whole war, firing almost daily from the same place. And another, that was attacked and killed the crew. I remember the Martyr's hand.

But today, in this war, this accuracy has been costly, and the Israeli army was able to engage launcher relatively fast and much more accurately. This neutralized re-usability and has threatened the crews. Although I note that drones weren't as successful in foiling the launching beforehand and in the majority of cases attacked the launchers after they are done. This s due to the lack of drone coverage and great concealment by Hezbullah.

2- The Iron dome, it was an effective tool that could only be defeated in suppression barrages that Hezbullah was unable to produce in this war and was only able to fire as much daily as in 2006 when there was none. Won't explain why now, probably did at some point.

3- Better Israeli close air support that was very poor in 2006, that was able to effectively and within 7-15 minutes attack what the ground forces needed.

This played a very instrumental role and made a difference in this war. And this was not only enabled by better training, but by the adoption of small commerical drones that allowed the soldiers to track Hezbullah fighters in gunfire and clashes and direct airstrikes from safety.

So not only was the Israeli plans much better than in 2006, in terms of avoiding mistakes and threats (helicopters, behind enemy line landings, exposing tanks to threats, rushing and not clearing areas), they closed the gaps and ensured safety over anything.

Some would call it being cowards, but that's BS. It really doesn't matter, the goal is to win and ensure lives are not lost. So not only in this war would they attack an area with jets and drones, every house would targeted by a rocket and a team will send small drones to inspect the house beforehand. On many occasions, suicide drones.

And other drones would track fighters, trail them, and call air support to murder them and end the fight then and there safely. (Continued) #admin

These are barely a few factors, won't mention the rest and won't mention the gaps in Hezbullah's performance.

These factors affected the intended results of Hezbullah's rockets and placed a heavy toll on Hezbullah's ground forces. Not only where this battle affected by these factors, but by the factors that we mentioned in one of the hyperlinked posts. From softening the border villages in a 1 year long support front that was never expected to last this long, to others.

These conditions in light of Israeli dominance, produced this shy victory where Hezbullah was unable to secure a position of strength and was forced into compromise in terms of ending the war to reduce the losses without establishing deterrence which will be risky in case the Israeli army doesn't abide by the conditions of the ceasefire and not only retreat but abstain from attacking Lebanon.

This weakened Hezbullah, who as further compromise by the fall of the state in Syria after Bachar al-Assad was sidelined.

I talked about Syria in a long thread, hyperlinked but I would note. Bachar was a good man, but failed to build a state was much weaker than portrayed and criminally negligent to uplift the country by fighting the rampant corrupt that decayed the foundation of the state and exposed it to all sins.

See, I don't think he just gave up and ran and I'm confident he was coup-ed. His generals stayed in Syria and are reconciling, his Prime Minister sat with al-Jolani the next day and some of the leaders already got Amnesty from both the 4th Division and NDF. Imagine and conclude. Else, nothing explains the collapse and his lack of media presence. It's not shame, it's beyond that.

Assad was holding a bag of sand, and someone took this bag away from him. The sand is something he cannot hold anymore. Regardless, the collapse of Syria has brought a new state whose current leader is warlord criminal but one who has good management skills and will be able to do some progress, however he is unlikely to play the role that Egypt's Morsi did and will likely siege Hezbullah in Lebanon from Iran. We'll know eventually. So now, after this war, at the worst possible time, Hezbullah lost access through the ground, noting that the airport never served as a path for weapons.

Hezbullah can produce a lot, but understand that production is complicated and needs raw material and machinery. They can get access to that, but some components need major military factories that cannot be created in years in Lebanon. This will be a great challenge.

Myself, I see it a blessing because Syria was compromised and this will help build self sufficiency. I do believe smuggling will continue, more discrete thus much safer. Idc let this "siege"' comfort Israel now so it ends the war in Lebanon and gives us some years of much needed peace

So now, this Axis lost Syria, the spine that kept the Axis attached. The axis lost Gaza, because the war has literally wiped the strip and has weakened Hamas into what I'd describe as a "manageable threat" for months now. The axis lost Hezbullah's leading initiative because it needs time to recover and rebuild

Now only Yemen and Iran are relatively in shape. Thus, one by one, the enemy weakened the axis. I'll explain on a later day why the axis wasn't and couldn't fight with one sword, aka fight simultaneously

The Israeli threats for Yemen are clear, and we should expect more Israeli attacks and assassinations. May they be safe and may the Jews be dammed and their efforts foiled

As for Iran, I'm glad they didn't do True Promise 3 because they were wise not to. It was a trap and they didn't fall into

Israel wanted them to retaliate, so they can get the pretext and so-called legitimacy from the corrupt west to launch another on Iran, one that this time was going to be much more wide scale and devasting. The attack was meant to seriously cause damage to Iran and set costs that aren't easily compensated for. Patience, for a better time because Iran understands its important to stay well, because they are the frame of the tent. (Continued) #admin

This is why I said Iran is next, because if Iran is well, everyone can regenerate but if Iran falls in the western hands like pre-1979 everyone will fall and those remaining non-state actors will lose their ability to impact.

Let's be clear, all non-state across and insurgencies nowadays are at a disadvantage against states, and unless they have the backing of one, the (enemy) state will always triumph or at least continue to successfully suppress. It was the Lebanese faith and courage that led to the liberation, but it was Iran's training and weapons that gave these men the tools to turn this faith into action. Etc. you get it.

Israel is now high over the victory it sees in Gaza and Lebanon, ecstatic over the collapse in Syria and hopes to have a conflict with Iran that can end all wars. It's like how everyone thought WW2 is the war to end all wars. With Trump, Netanyahu has the enabling and backing, and they will both pressure Iran economically, socially, and military wise.

It's a big challenge. I find it remarkable too that despite these challenges, God chose to take the life of the supposed successor of both Imam Khamenie and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. As if he chose to make this challenge on the highest difficultly.

Finally, this is the New Middle East in the forming. Failed in 2006, attempted in 2011, and made a breakthrough in 2024.

Sheikh Naim Qassem acknowledged this new reality when he said: Hezbullah foiled the news middle east from emerging from the gates of Lebanon. As in, the New Middle east wasn't/ won't be shaped starting by the fall of Lebanon but it has emerged and we are now in the storm. A middle east were the Axis of those anti-Israel are at weakness and the West and their allies are at their height again.

It's a storm where you have to survive until better conditions emerge, and during that all comprise without affecting your ideals and goals and during which build yourself by closing the gaps both socially and military wise. There is a lot of innovation needed, a lot of lessons to dirive, and a lot of precautions.

I pray to God to lead our leadership and guide them to the correct decisions and shield them from threats and lighten their minds to what's needed. The leadership from top to bottom.

Being far, or outside or not part, let's you see things differently. I don't know if what you think should be done is something they know and do and you don't know about, or they don't see because the experience and overview is different. Regardless, full faith in Hezbullah, yesterday..in the present, and in the future. (end) #admin

Sorry for the long post...

BUT DO READ IT ALL. I DIDN'T SIT THIS LONG FOR NOTHING

🇱🇧l🇮🇱 Part of the report by 60 Minutes about the Mossad's terrorist sabotage attack through the pagers in Lebanon.

(I didn't watch it, it will contain both facts and propaganda) @LebUpdate

🥀 The pager attack was designed in a way to severely injure both the eyes and hand, but not necessarily kill.

The attacks injured and killed countless civilians, including children and women. The attack was indiscriminate in nature and a terrorist act, as killing combatants during peace time and not during conflict is a war crime.

Photo of 3 young kids who lost their eyes and hands as a result of the pager attack, while at home. @LebUpdate

🥀 One of the injured children in the sabotage attack

🥀 A lot of wives and sisters too. May God provide them with patience in this life, and the most generous heavens in the eternal existence.

استشهد سيد محسن، الله في الساحة
استشهد عبدالقادر، الله في الساحة
استشهد أبو الفضل، الله في الساحة
استشهد السيد صفي الدين، الله في الساحة
استشهد السيد نصرالله، الله في الساحة

وطالما أنّ الله في الساحة سيظلّ يمدّنا بالرجال الرجال. وسنبقى منتصرين، بمبايعة الرجال!
لكَ البيعة يا نعيمنا القاسم🤍

🎄To all those who celebrate, Wishing you and your family health, happiness, peace and prosperity this Christmas.

May we celebrate in Jerusalem!