via @EmailGateBot
RR The Wire 2345Z - March 30, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 234530Z MAR 23
ICOD: 230030Z MAR 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: Trump indicted by grand jury. Infrastructure incidents continue to increase in frequency and severity.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-National Events-
NY: Donald Trump has been indicted by a grand jury. Governor Ron DeSantis has formally stated that Florida will not assist with any extradition operation.

Washington D.C. - Jacob Chansley (the QAnon shaman) was released from prison today. He was imprisoned for 27 months, and is now in a halfway house. AC: Several weeks ago, Fox News aired footage during a Tucker Carlson segment that confirmed Capitol police officers personally guided Chansley into the US Capitol on J6, completely exonerating Chansley. This makes the timing of Chansley's release very suspicious.

TX: Chemical spill near Robstown. An unidentified amount of Mercaptan (the chemical that gives natural gas it's rotten egg smell) was spilled, but has been contained.

MN: Large catastrophic train derailment IVO Raymond. At least one car was carrying Ethanol, and caught fire. Residents were evacuated due to the large fire.

-Analyst Comments-
The timing of Trump's indictment is highly questionable. A few days ago, court officials announced the grand jury would be taking a 30 day break, and will have a decision following the adjournment. We now know this was a deception operation. The indictment of Trump is suspiciously timed with the release of Jacob Chansley. To be clear, the evidence of Chansley's innocence is not why he was released, officials state he was released for "good behavior"...not the revelation of exculpatory evidence.
Today, there have been many milestones, and many opportunities for tension to reach a breaking point. Historic, once-in-a-lifetime infrastructure events have now become a daily occurrence...every day we discover a major train derailment, factory fire/explosion, or chemical spill. Consequently, tensions remain high throughout the US as average Americans watch events unfold.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire - 0030Z April 02, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 003002Z APR 23
ICOD: 000002Z APR 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: Critical infrastructure vulnerabilities remain a constant concern. Belarus prepares to receive Russian Nukes. Ukraine persecutes Christians.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-National Events-
OH: CDC officials confirm that 7x employees in total have been injured since the beginning of the East Palestine HAZMAT crisis. These officials reported suffering burning eyes and throats, headaches and nausea. It is unknown as to how many others have been injured due to the toxic environment, as other agencies have not released any information on employee injuries. Officials still maintain that the area is safe for residents.

-International Events-
Belarus: Lukashenko continues to prepare for the arrival of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Lukashenko has expressed the desire to also host Russian strategic weapons, and has begun revitalizing Belarus' Cold-War era silos and launch pads.

Ukraine: Persecution of Orthodox Christians remains an constant goal of Ukraine's regime. Security forces again raided the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra (aka the Monastery of the Caves), a thousand-year-old Orthodox monastery in Kiev. The raid was conducted to remove Orthodox leadership by forcibly evicting Metropolitan Pavel, who remains under house arrest.

-Analyst Comments-
In East Palestine, it is important to note that the 7x investigators that have been injured were NOT part of cleanup crews. Rather, these employees were part of survey crews, going door-to-door to interview residents. It is becoming impossible to conceal the severe impacts this HAZMAT crisis has had on the local environment, when the teams going to residential homes are falling ill. This alone is undeniable proof that residential areas are heavily contaminated.
In Ukraine, Orthodox Christians have been persecuted heavily since the renewal of Russia's invasion, with Zelensky's Secret Police (the SBU) raiding and arresting Metropolitan Pavel on charges of "justifying Russian aggression", a criminal offense in Ukraine. Freedom of speech is NOT allowed in Ukraine, and all information has been strictly controlled by the government since Zelensky enacted emergency powers at the beginning of the invasion. Though completely ignored by western media for obvious reasons, arresting unarmed religious clerics at gunpoint by secret police organizations is not often looked upon in a positive light, no matter the circumstances. Since 2022, 61 other clerics have been prosecuted for allegedly pro-Russia stances, despite formally cutting ties with the Moscow Patriarchy. Most Orthodox churches in Ukraine have gone underground in response to Zelensky's sanctions, raids, and targeting actions.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire - 2245Z - April 02, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 224502Z APR 23
ICOD: 210002Z APR 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: Daily derailments and chemical spills continue. OPEC cuts production.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-National Events-
MT: Catastrophic train derailment near Paradise, Montana. 25x cars derailed, coming to rest in the adjacent Clark Fork River. The cargo on board is unknown, but local authorities assess that the contents of the derailed cars was mostly consumer goods. Authorities urge there are no HAZMAT concerns at this time, but locals have indicated on social media that an unidentified substance is leaking from the pileup of derailed cars directly into the river. These reports are unconfirmed. The catastrophic nature of the derailment likely means that recovery may take some time. The cause of the derailment is unknown.

NY: Multiple explosions reported at Nouryon Chemicals yesterday on Friday. Plant officials state that an uncontrolled chemical reaction caused multiple canisters of organic Peroxide to explode. Very few details are public surrounding this incident, but the explosions have been controlled. Currently, it is not publicly known how much Peroxide has leaked from the facility following the explosions, but local reporting indicates that a substantial amount of Peroxide spilled directly into the nearby Eighteen Mile Creek. Officials have stated that there is no risk to the public, but during the incident a half-mile exclusion zone was emplaced around the plant due to the danger posed by the explosions.

-International Events-
OPEC: Production of crude oil cut by one million barrels per day. This comes as the White House recommends against cutting production. This will likely raise domestic US POL prices somewhat over the summer.

-Analyst Comments-
Critical infrastructure incidents continue to impact the United States.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire - 0100Z April 07, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 010007Z APR 23
ICOD: 003007Z APR 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: Finland joins NATO. Trump arrested, released pending trial.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-National Events-
NY: Trump surrendered to police on Tuesday, and has entered a plea of Not Guilty on all charges. Currently, no trial date has been set.

-International Events-
Finland: Finland joins NATO. Finland has reportedly not requested NATO troops to be stationed within her borders at this time. AC: NATO is almost certainly interested in the deployment of troops along Russia's northern flank. Even though publicly Finland remains a largely independent power militarily, NATO has likely been quietly exploring options for covert, small-scale "advisory" deployments throughout the country, which will probably begin soon (if not already).

BRICS: Member states exploring potential for common currency system, which is likely intended to serve as an opposition currency to the US Dollar.

France: Widespread riots/protests continue nationwide in opposition to Macron's government. AC: Though originally the demonstrations were in response to Macron's pension reform, at this point the sentiments appear to generally be anti-government in nature, and not specifically related to one policy, but many different issues. It is unclear as to how much the demonstrations are affecting daily life, but in some areas society has completely shut down. In other areas, daily life is largely unaffected.

-Analyst Comments-
Finland joining NATO is an expected, but nonetheless significant, development as nations continue to align along diplomatic battle lines. Now that Russia's physical border with NATO is effectively doubled, diplomatic retaliation on the part of Russia is a certainty, such as greatly expanding her aspirations towards trade partnerships with Asia. This event alone being a prelude to a total European war is unlikely at this stage, but as tensions remain at levels reminiscent of the height of the Cold War, any escalatory actions by either side are not a good sign.

-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z April 08, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233008Z APR 23
ICOD: 230008Z APR 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: China mobilizes forces for large-scale exercises surrounding Taiwan. FBI/SOCOM botches Boston training event.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-National Events-
MA: FBI and US SOCOM forces raided the wrong hotel room as part of an undisclosed training operation at the Revere Hotel in Boston on Tuesday. Agents handcuffed an unsuspecting citizen, interrogating him in the bathroom of his hotel room. After some time, the agents/soldiers realized that their detainee was actually a regular citizen, not an exercise participant (who allegedly is a pilot for Delta Airlines and was simply a regular guest at the hotel). After being freed, the Delta pilot called local police to report the event, leading to the public being notified. An officer with US SOCOM has been selected to lead the investigation of SOCOM's involvement in the botched raid. AC: All agencies involved have been very tight lipped regarding this raid, and the interrogation tactics used on this innocent citizen are unclear. Though these types of exercises are undertaken throughout civilian populaces extremely regularly, it is not clear as to why this exercise took place in an actively used hotel in such close proximity to civilians. Usually, when civilian hotels are used for similar training events, an entire floor is made available for the event, so that unsuspecting guests do not stumble into the training area.

-International Events-
China: ROC forces are on alert as PLAN ships and aircraft conduct surprise "drills" in the Taiwan Strait, and beyond. So far, China has declared the surprise exercises will take place in areas that strategically surround the island of Taiwan. Currently 9x PLAN ships and 70+ aircraft have been detected on radar. AC: This is an increase in the forces normally seen for standard PLAN exercises.

-Analyst Comments-
In the Pacific Theater, the grand question remains: Are these drills by Chinese forces really just exercises, or are they a deception operation, and in turn, a prelude to war? No one can know for certain, but the evidence points to this snap-exercise being largely a reflection of posturing, rather than an immediate indicator of an invasion. These activities are likely in response to the Taiwanese PM meeting with American politicians in California. This demonstration is also likely due to Pentagon officials beginning to step up arms production to support Taiwan...much like the US did with Ukraine. Additionally, April is a common time frame for China to conduct large-scale military drills. The detection of 9x surface vessels, while very significant and historical, is not indicative of the dozens of ships that would be necessary for amphibious landings to occur. At most, this exercise is the latest substantial increase in China's deception operations...one day the "drill" will not be a drill, but rather a legitimate military operation. However, until that day, PLA officials will seek to muddy the waters, testing ROC defensive responses, and causing confusion for the real strike, when it comes.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire - 1400Z April 24, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 140024Z APR 23
ICOD: 133024Z APR 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: US evacuates embassy in Sudan due to unrest, 16,000 Americans left behind. Chinese military demonstrations in South China Sea increasing.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-National Events-
US: G4 Geomagnetic storm causes Northern Lights to be visible throughout lower latitudes throughout the US. Citizens as far south as Kentucky reported seeing substantial Aurora in the skies last night. AC: This geomagnetic storm has the potential to interfere with electronics, radio signals, GPS, and can even cause problems with local electrical grids.

-International Events-
Sudan: US conducts emergency evacuation of embassy in Khartoum due to widespread violence. Despite the evacuation of the embassy itself, many thousands of American citizens have been left behind in Sudan. Numbers are highly inaccurate, but right now as many as 9,000-16,000 Americans are still in Sudan, with the US government advising them that they will not be rescued at this time.

China: PLAN exercises continue, with Taiwanese officials monitoring the CV SHANDONG as she conducts maneuvers in the waters south of Taiwan.

-Analyst Comments-
War has been a constant in Sudan for years. The US embassy was only reopened last August, after decades of closure. Recently, conflict between rival warlords/generals has exacerbated an already tense situation, with hundreds of deaths being reported (including one American) due to the fighting. The White House has urged US citizens left behind in Sudan to not count on a rescue operation, specifically stating that "it is not our standard procedure to evacuate American citizens living abroad". Based on these direct statements, and the immediate military evacuation of the US embassy, it is extremely likely that all American citizens who desire to evacuate the country will have to do so on their own without any help from the US government.-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire - 1400Z 24 May, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 140024Z MAY 23
ICOD: 133024Z MAY 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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RN: FR88465-23 BLUF: Following a rash of highly suspect incidents, Information Operations continue to be a threat to the American people.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-National Events-
Washington D.C. - This week has been host to several substantial information operation efforts. 50 US Senators have been issued satellite phones for emergency communication as part of new security procedures. These satphones are to be used in the event of a communications disruption. This comes on the exact same day that the FDA begins large ad campaign to "combat misinformation on the internet". This ad campaign used the example of "the internet going out" as an example of "misinformation". This in turn comes on the heels of FBI whistleblowers testifying before Congress about the "weaponization of the FBI against the American people". AC: It is unknown if these actions are related to any specific threat, or if this is more of a narrative of fear being pushed. There are many issues with the logic of all of these events, complicating analytical efforts (and therefore being a strong indicator of 5GW taking place). However, the overall theme is that information control is a high priority for the Biden regime, and will continue to be a concern for the average citizen for the foreseeable future.
Washington D.C Cont'd - Man rams Uhaul truck into White House barrier IVO Lafayette Square. The cargo space of the vehicle was empty. The suspect has been identified as Sai Varshith Kandula. AC: Behavior of first responders was quite strange as normal evidence handling procedures were not adhered to. A N@zi flag (censored for widest dissemination on anti-1A platforms) was recovered from the cab of the vehicle, and officers neatly spread the flag out on the ground (about 15 feet from the vehicle) in full view of (and deliberately facing) the cameras that were recording the entire incident. Once the media took their photos, the flag was removed and processed as evidence. Note: LE obviously take photos for evidence, however the way this was done is highly suspect. Minimal damage was caused, no one was harmed, the target was obviously very strongly fortified, the attack was conducted at very low speeds, and almost nothing was in the suspects possession apart from the flag which was paraded in front of journalists, who just so happened to be at a nondenoscript location IVO the White House at the exact right time (around 10pm) to capture the entire attack.
Border Crisis: Situation at the southern border continues to by extremely dynamic. AC: Atmospherics on the ground indicate growing resentment towards military and border patrol forces, who many locals accuse of not doing enough to prevent border crossings. Of course, the situation is more complex than this (and it is unclear as to how true this is) but tense attitudes remain nonetheless.
-Analyst Comments-
Information operations and the control of information continue to challenge average citizens' daily communication efforts. The ignorance of these threats by a majority of the population is exacerbated by political ideology as many people refuse to allow any opinion that differs from pre-approved narratives. Despite the real threats directly and openly posed by powerful actors; even these reports are met with extreme hostility many times. This presents challenges for those who have not taken measures to create resilient communications methods in the event of traditional comms networks are intentionally severed.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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PP The Wire - June 24, 2023

PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 140024Z JUN 23
ICOD: 133024Z JUN 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: Possible Coup Attempt in Russia

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: Yesterday Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the infamous Russian PMC group Wagner, announced that he would be seeking accountability from the Kremlin regarding the losses Wagner troops have suffered in Ukraine. Shortly after this statement, Wagner units stationed in the rear areas of Ukraine's eastern regions (now under Russian control) began movement North toward Moscow. So far, the city of Rostov has been confirmed (with high confidence) to be under Wagner's control. Moscow has begun limited small-scale fortification efforts IVO government buildings. Though impossible to confirm, Prigozhin reportedly has 25,000 soldiers of various unit type, along with various mechanized and armored elements in support. There are also claims that regular Russian Army units have switched sides to join Wagner, but these reports are unconfirmed.

Analyst Comment: Always keeping in mind the information warfare running rampant in today's 5GW world, this surreal "mini-coup" appears to be more genuine than propaganda, at least right now. The Kremlin's response so far has been quite limited, possibly due to Russian leadership wishing to handle this incident as peacefully as possible. The Kremlin's limited responses so far could also be due to, like everyone else, Russian leadership not assessing this coup attempt to be genuine. Historically, Russian leaders have often been caught unaware by the winds of change, and this may have been the reason for the lack of any serious attempt (at the early stages) to stop this coup.

The grand question on the international front has been "is this real?". The answer to which is not so clear. The information sources reporting on this event are completely unreliable, and local Russian citizens seem to be going about their daily lives relatively unaffected. Meanwhile, the propaganda machines outside Russia are conducting some of the largest Information Operation campaigns in recent memory. Though we may be able to confirm or deny the presence of Wagner forces in various places around Russia, there is a nagging feeling that this whole affair is not organic or natural. Prighozin, eager (allegedly) to stop the bloodshed of his people, can always stop fighting...Wagner is a paid mercenary group, not regular soldiers. It also makes little sense to want to stop Russian deaths...by launching a coup...which will trigger a Ukrainian offensive...causing even more Russian deaths.

However, this is Russia, and stranger things have happened. Coups that make absolutely no sense are a critical part of Russian history. Will Prigozhin make good on his promise to install a new President? Will he even make it to Moscow? Or is this event just a complete fabrication? Time will tell.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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via @EmailGateBot
PP The Wire 0000Z June 25, 2023

PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 000025Z JUN 23
ICOD: 233024Z JUN 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: Russian Coup Attempt Resolved Somewhat Peacefully.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: Prigozhin's coup has ended as abruptly as it started, following successful negotiations between Wagner and the Kremlin. Details of the peace agreement are sketchy, but statements from the Kremlin indicate that an agreement was reached at the behest of mediation by Belorussian President Lukashenko (who is an old friend of Prigozhin). This comes following the downing of several Russian helicopters by Wagner forces. Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov details the results of the agreement as follows (in no particular order):
1. All Wagner troops taking part in the coup will stand down and return to their barracks/encampments.
2. All Wagner troops taking part in todays actions will not be prosecuted, and those that initially refused to take part in this operation will be offered contracts folding them into the MoD.
3. The criminal case against Prigozhin will be dropped, and Prigozhin will be relocating to Belarus.
4. Russia's operation in UKR will continue unaffected.
5. Putin will not be addressing the nation anytime soon.

Analyst Comment: Though a peaceful solution appears to have been reached (after the death of 12+ pilots), caution must be reserved that this incident may not over yet. Rumors have been rampant all day, with no clear proof or indication of what deal was reached. Whatever the details of the agreement are, today's actions indicate that this affair was more likely a genuine power struggle, and not (as some have theorized) a master ploy by Putin to consolidate power. Putin will of course use this opportunity as a way to consolidate power now that the incident is largely over, but it's unlikely that this entire event was premeditated for that purpose.Of course, Russians are masters of Maskirovka, Military Deception, so we never can really be sure of what is real. However, today's events left Putin with a black eye, and allowed for UKR/USA propaganda efforts an easy win. Though the long term implications of today's events is uncertain, Russia's political structure and senior leadership are going to be feeling the sting of this for a while.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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PP The Wire 1800Z October 07, 2023

PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 180007Z OCT 23
ICOD: 173007Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: WAR BREAKS OUT IN ISRAEL/GAZA AS HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH LAUNCH ATTACKS.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Conflict erupts as HAMAS launches complex, multi-domain attack on Israel by air, land, and sea. Over 5,000 rockets fired, many of which have landed in the industrial sector of Tel Aviv. Several Israeli tanks have been knocked out as attacks occur along all border outposts. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is on high alert, and has carried out harassing attacks via motos along the Israel/Lebanon border. UN troops in Lebanon have returned to their bases. Israeli PM Netanyahu declares state of War.
-Analyst Comments-
This is no harassing fires, this is the real McCoy. HAMAS has clearly been planning this attack for a very long time, and certainly has only been able to amass this sheer volume of munitions via direct support from Iran. This is the most substantial conflict throughout the region in decades. The most perplexing facet of the war so far is that Israel does not seem to have detected the build up of forces prior to the attack. In this regard, this attack is reminiscent of the Vietnam War’s Tet Offensive. Online chatter suggests that this attack may have been directly funded by the US’s payment of $6 billion to Iran mere weeks ago, but as of yet there’s no direct evidence to support this (though it makes sense). The US has pledged “support”, but what that support might be is certainly in question, as recent reporting in Congress has indicated the US is in a poor state to even arm its own territorial defenses, much less render any substantial military aid to Israel. Funding will almost certainly be allocated from somewhere to send to Israel, but in terms of real military hardware support the US can’t offer much.
What remains in question is whether or not this war will expand to include other regional players. So far, Lebanon seems to be in play, so the possibility of this war expanding is very real. All eyes should be on other regional players who may not take kindly to a total war/aggressive retaliation throughout Gaza. As with most military operations, the most critical part is the first 24 hours, which will be extremely indicative as to how the conflict will develop.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN

RR The Wire 1730Z October 07, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 173008Z OCT 23
ICOD: 170008Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL DECLARES WAR ON PALESTINE IN RESPONSE TO ATTACKS. TOTAL MOBILIZATION UNDERWAY. LSCO IMMINENT IN GAZA.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Following complex, multi-domain attacks by Hamas into Israel, Israel prepares for Large Scale Combat Operation (LSCO) in Gaza. 300,000+ IDF reservists called up, including elderly/retired citizens. Israeli casualties so far 700+. IDF 36th AD mobilizing to staging areas in the North. IDF 162nd AD deploying to Gaza border. All Israeli settlements within 10km of Lebanon border ordered evac’d.
CSG-12 maneuvering into eastern Med to prepare for possible USPER evac. USA in talks to send $8 Billion+ aid package to Israel.
-Analyst Comments-
Israeli LSCO within Gaza to begin immediately. In terms of personnel and equipment involved, this war is reminiscent of the Yom Kippur War of 1973. It is unclear as to if an Arab coalition will form in response to IDF actions in Gaza, but that potential is great. Currently, regional actors are treading carefully, with many Arab states issuing declarations of Palestinian support, but not issuing mobilization orders in any meaningful way…yet. The world is waiting to see what the Israel will do within Gaza, and what preparations the Palestinians have undertaken to counter this obvious counterattack.
Attacks on Israelis (and Americans) around the world are expected as lone-wolf actors and sleeper cells alike activate to target Palestinian adversaries around the world. Israeli tourists in Egypt have already been attacked. Heightened situational awareness and vigilance is strongly recommended at this time due to the increased potential for malign actors to take advantage of the chaos by launching local attacks.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN

RR The Wire 1800Z October 09, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 180009Z OCT 23
ICOD: 173009Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ARAB ISRAELI WAR CONTINUES, LSCO IMMINENT IN GAZA. HOMEFRONT ATTACKS POSSIBLE IF SITUATION ESCALATES.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Arab-Israeli War continues as Palestinian attacks enter third day. Israeli forces continuing to mobilize along Gaza border, Lebanese border, and West Bank. Turkey issues warning to US to not get involved. Many Arab states calling for de-escalation, though this seems unlikely as IDF forces mobilize for a LSCO within Gaza and/or West Bank. Israel has already shut off electricity, water, food, gas, and all other utilities to Gaza, which is now in a state of siege. Egypt publicly aiding Palestine with medical supplies through their shared border crossing, how much other support is given is unknown.
Far East Front: In the Pacific, Chinese incursion flights within the Taiwan Straight continue following the largest PLAN naval drill in history last month. PLA forces may seek to capitalize on conflicts erupting around the world to increase presence patrols throughout the South China Sea as well as in the waters surrounding Taiwan. No indications are present so far pointing to significant Chinese military actions IVO Taiwan, but harassment activities will likely continue as in the past.
-The Home Front-
USA: Tensions continue along the Southern US border as the immigration crisis reaches new heights. CBP reports 3.1 million immigrants crossed the border for the 2023 fiscal year (though this number does not include the 630,000 “gotaways” who evaded capture).
-Analyst Comments-
On all fronts, information warfare is substantial, with many citizens rushing to support one side or the other, with almost zero appreciation for the historical complexity of the Middle East. The current conflict within Israel/Palestine is the manifestation of issues that run deeper than any of us can imagine. Regardless, conflict in the Middle East has the potential to affect life at home via gasoline prices and availability, tax dollars being spent, inflation, and vulnerabilities to the homeland increasing as military hardware is sent overseas.
Palestinian forces are well known for implanting sleeper cells around the world, and encouraging lone-wolf attacks beyond their borders. Consequently, though this conflict is taking place overseas, citizens must remain vigilant and observant of the potential for demonstrations within the US to become violent. Several clashes have already been reported in several US cities between pro-Israel and pro-Palestine supporters, but any substantial attacks are dependent on Israel’s actions within Gaza, and how the conflict escalates over the next few days.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN

Audio only version for those that prefer that format: https://youtu.be/EWzxxoAqfbE
Also available on all major podcasting apps and on Twitter

RR The Wire 1700Z October 10, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 170010Z OCT 23
ICOD: 160010Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES PREPARATION FOR GAZA INVASION.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Arab-Israeli War continues as Palestinian attacks enter fourth day. Battle lines form as various regional actors begin aligning with mutual interest throughout the region. Israel has warned Egypt that any convoys sent to Gaza will be destroyed, Egypt plans to send convoys despite the targeting. Israel has confirmed the US will directly enter the war if Hezbollah invades from the North. Russia has suggested that if the US enters the war, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq will also join the fray. Saudi and Emirati leaders have begun setting the stage for peace talks but at this late hour, with Israel poised to strike, there is virtually nothing that will prevent an Israeli invasion of Gaza.
Far East Front: ROK officials claim DPRK planning surprise attack utilizing the same tactics as HAMAS. NFI ATT.
-The Home Front-
USA: Domestic tensions remain high resulting from internal political strife. Defense stocks surge in anticipation of wartime weapons production. Domestic protests/demonstrations continue, leading to clashes between pro-Israel and pro-Palestine groups. Increase scrutiny of border crossings indicate that Palestinian sleeper cells are almost certainly already within the US, though the extent of this threat is not yet known.
-Analyst Comments-
Dehumanization rhetoric continues as calls for escalation run rampant on social media.
The authority by which Israel has claimed US involvement will begin is unclear, though likely an accurate representation of American policy maker’s desires. American politicians have openly begun calling for the US to declare war on Iran. Depending on Iran’s future involvement after Israel’s invasion of Gaza, this remains a sobering possibility. A much higher possibility (70% chance) is for Israel herself to conduct surgical strikes within Iran.
Any substantial military activity on the part of North Korea remains unlikely as DPRK’s battle plans for South Korea have remained relatively unchanged for 50+ years. It is unlikely that DPRK will change their fate on a whim, much less on an event taking place halfway around the world. DPRK officials likely seek to divide America’s attention, along with ROK forces who seek to continue defense funding at a time when the US is spread thin. In any case, North Korea will not act without the support of China and Russia, both of which are highly motivated to destabilize the American foothold in Asia.
The impacts this War brings to the average American are variable. If this war continues to escalate, gas prices will almost certainly rise and remain high until the end of the year. OPEC has already pledged daily production cuts until the end of the year, and American support to Israel is likely to result in further tightening of POL production. US Strategic Petroleum Reserves are critically low, as is domestic US oil production. Following major incidents of explosions/fires at major US refineries over the past two years, American POL production remains a major strategic vulnerability.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN

Audio version: https://youtu.be/olK6jE1CXNU
Twitter version: https://x.com/s2_underground/status/1711788815356985504?s=20

RR The Wire 1630Z October 11, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163011Z OCT 23
ICOD: 153011Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES TARGETS IN SYRIA AND LEBANON. FINLAND DETECTS UNDERSEA PIPELINE ATTACK.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: IDF makes final preparations for Gaza invasion. Israel strikes targets in Lebanon as Hezbollah militants conduct limited skirmishes along the border. Israel strikes targets in Syria in response to alleged mortar fire originating IVO Quneitra. IDF begins Naval bombardment and airstrikes of Egypt/Gaza Rafah border crossing after ordering noncombatants in Gaza to flee to Egypt via same crossing. Evidence begins to mount indicating the use of White Phosphorous rounds by IDF on Gaza. Various Palestinian-aligned splinter groups make preparations for operations around the world, increasing threatening rhetoric, particularly in the US and Europe.
US CSG-12 arrives O/S, Eastern Med. 101st ABN reportedly preparing to deploy to Jordan. Various US SOF units already deployed to Israel. HMS Prince of Wales CSG departs Norfolk, Virginia, possibly also to deploy to the Med at a later date.
European Front: Clashes erupt at protests as conflict escalates in the Middle East. The US sends additional $200 million to Ukraine.
Baltic Front: Finland alleges deliberate pipeline sabotage after detecting pressure drop in the Baltic-Connector pipeline on Sunday. This pipeline transports LNG between Finland and Estonia.
Balkan Front: Bosnian nationalists rally in Sarajevo to support Palestine on the eve of high tensions in the region. Before the Israeli war, tensions between Bosnia/Kosovo flared, resulting in border clashes that injured demonstrators.
-The Home Front-
USA: California creates and implements Ebony Alert, a dedicated Amber Alert for missing Black children. This is the first emergency service to prioritize response based on race. US House report indicates 99% of illegal immigrants encountered since 2021 have not been deported, and contact has been lost with the overwhelming majority.
-Analyst Comments-
Information warfare abounds following various atrocities of war, many of which cannot independently be verified. Caution must be exercised in the information space as all sides in the current conflict have long histories of narrative shaping. Outside the immediate warzone, tensions will continue to grow as both sides demonize any attempt at neutrality. Many US politicians and pundits have shared uncorroborated stories, old videos, and completely false information on social media, with no concern for verifying most of the information they are repeating. Due to the Illusory Truth Effect, it will become increasingly difficult to discern the truth as time goes on.
Extremely serious and concerning rhetoric runs rampant on social media; everything from chemical to nuclear weapons has been openly discussed by high ranking political officials on all sides of the conflict. The question remains as to how much of this rhetoric will be backed up with action. The use of White Phosphorus munitions by IDF is highly likely, as video evidence all but confirms this munition’s use. However, genuine video evidence has been mixed with old videos from the Syrian War, further weaponizing the use of information in this conlict.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1600Z October 12, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 160012Z OCT 23
ICOD: 150012Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES DAMASCUS AND ALEPPO. PALESTINE DECLARES OCTOBER 13 GLOBAL DAY OF JIHAD.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel expands conflict by conducting pre-emptive strikes in the heart of Syria, with IDF officials confirming futures strikes to take place over the next few days. The Damascus and Aleppo airports were taken out of action in the strikes. Israel continues bombing campaign of Gaza with the goal of total annihilation as described by IDF officials. IDF officials have vowed to turn Gaza into a “tent city”, with no structure left standing. Israeli strikes in Lebanon continue as harassing fires originate from border skirmishes. Various Lebanese Hezbollah subgroups have declared a general mobilization. Thousands of Egyptian Bedouin fighters stage on the Egyptian border with Gaza with the intent to join the war. Iranian IRGC ground forces reportedly making movement toward Iraq border.
Palestine declares Global Day of Jihad scheduled for Friday, Oct 13th. Many claims of demonstrations and more violent actions are planned to reach a zenith tomorrow, as users on social media announce planned demonstrations in most US cities as well as throughout Europe.
US CSG-12 remains O/S, Eastern Med. 101st ABN preparing for mobilization, allegedly to a remote FOB in Israel. NFI ATT. HMS Queen Elizabeth CSG making preparations for possible deployment to the Middle East.
US State Department reaffirms standard policy of charging fees for rescue flights. DoS will offer emergency evacuation plan for Americans stranded in Israel, but will only rescue citizens if they sign a promissory note obligating citizens to repay rescue costs. Despite common thought to the contrary, this is a standard DoS policy.
-HomeFront-
USA: Online rhetoric and threats of violence peak in anticipation of the Global Day of Jihad tomorrow. Demonstrations in support of Palestine are planned for most major US cities.
-Analyst Comments-
Despite many claims of atrocities being walked back as no evidence surfaces, truth is no longer able to stop this war from escalating.
Based on the public rhetoric of IDF officials, and Israel’s military actions so far, there is zero chance of proportional response. The lines are beginning to blur between what Israel considers to be HAMAS, and the Palestinian population. Based on IDF officials’ statements so far, it is highly likely that Israel intends to totally eradicate every Palestinian from Gaza. Talks are allegedly already underway with Egypt (and other nations) to take in the survivors/refugees that remain.
Palestinian threats of a Global Day of Jihad are genuine, and intertwine civil-disruption operations with more deliberate terror attempts. As such any and all demonstrations remain high-risk events. Heightened situational awareness is strongly recommended over the next few days as the risk of lone-wolf attacks (or even sleeper cell activations) is increased. Due to American support to Israel, attacks on American citizens abroad are highly likely, as are random attacks within the United States. There is no specific evidence of more coordinated attacks on the horizon, though as this operation was clearly being planned for at least a year, more sophisticated terror attacks on the homefront are a possibility.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z October 13, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213013Z OCT 23
ICOD: 203013Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS GROUND COMBAT OPERATIONS AS INVASION OF GAZA IS IMMINENT. IDF ORDERS EVAC OF CIVILIANS IN GAZA. DAY OF JIHAD RESULTS IN FEW ISOLATED ATTACKS.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel orders the total evacuation of Gaza north of the Wadi Gaza, which roughly divides Gaza in half. The UN urges Israel to rescind the order, as less than 24 hours has been given to evacuate over 1.1 million people. The UN states that it is “impossible” to evacuate everyone by the deadline. Nevertheless, Israel has begun limited ground combat operations on the outskirts of Gaza. Limited skirmishes have begun in West Bank and the Golan Heights as well.
The Lebanese Army has allegedly begun shelling targets in northern Israel. NFI ATT.
Strategic military movements are being reported in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, and Turkey, but due to lack of corroborating information and unreliable sources little intelligence can be gained ATT regarding the strategic moves being made throughout the Arab world.
US CSG-12 remains O/S Eastern Med. CSG-2 steaming into the Mediterranean Sea. US deploys B-1B LANCER assets from 7th Bomb Wing to U.K. amid growing tensions.
Terror Attack Update: Isolated lone-wolf style stabbing attacks occur in France and China. More substantial attacks have not yet materialized as of the publication of this report.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestinian demonstrations continue in most major US cities, with minor clashes reported as Pro-Israeli protestors join the fray.
-Analyst Comments-
In retrospect, the short notice offered by the declaration of Global Jihad probably limited the number of attacks that could have been carried out with any success. However, now that the ultimatum has been issued, the threat of domestic attacks is not limited to a single day. Israeli offensives into Gaza will likely be a flashpoint for genuine attacks and false flag operations alike, encouraging enhanced vigilance as tensions in the Middle East remain high.
Israeli forces are likely making final preparations for a ground offensive, which may begin in earnest within the next 24-48 hours. Limited ground clearance operations have been conducted along the Gaza border, but the main offensive thrust is likely to occur after a final artillery barrage/bombing campaign along the Gaza front lines.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z October 14, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213014Z OCT 23
ICOD: 210014Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: EGYPT BEGINS ALLOWING FOREIGN NATIONAL EVAC FROM GAZA. ISRAEL CONTINUES AIR CAMPAIGN IN GAZA.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues aerial bombing campaign of Gaza. Large scale ground operation has not yet begun, and the US has urged Israel to postpone the ground invasion as noncombatants largely have not been evacuated. Egypt begins allowing foreign nationals to exit Gaza via the Rafah border crossing.
US continues deployment preparations for the evacuation of noncombatants in Gaza, though details are minimal at this stage. In Israel, US DoS begins the evacuation of non-essential US personnel from diplomatic posts. Correction to previous Wire: CSG-2 is not yet in the Mediterranean Sea, only having departed Norfolk this morning after a delay. This battle group will likely be observed transiting Gibraltar in approximately 10 days. CSG-12 remains O/S Eastern Med.
European Front: Demonstrations continue in support of Palestine in many major European cities, despite many nations declaring public support for Palestine to be illegal under recently passed terrorism laws. Russian diplomat Nikolai Kobrinets found dead in Turkey following possible heart attack in his hotel room. NFI ATT.
-HomeFront-
USA: Lake City Ammunition plant to halt all commercial ammo sales in response to “overseas events” which will result in higher demand via military contracts. Explosion at Hornady plant in Grand Island, Nebraska kills one worker and injures several.

-Analyst Comments-
Information warfare continues to be a persistent threat, especially within the combat zone. Israeli officials continue to order a southern evacuation route from Gaza using the Beach Road and Salah Eddine Road, while also conducting airstrikes on these roads. Consequently, Hamas militants use these strikes to push the narrative that the IDF will strike any fleeing civilians, and staying put is the better option. As always, the truth is likely in the grey area between these two positions. Israel has been observed to target civilians, hospitals, and humanitarian activities with little regard for Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS). Many UN employees and international aid workers have been killed in these strikes. On the other hand, HAMAS has a long history of using civilian locations and structures for military purposes, further blurring the lines between civilians and militants.
Public statements by diplomats are more clear. Israeli President Isaac Herzog has outlined the Israeli position strongly indicating that Israel considers Palestine and HAMAS to be one and the same. This strongly indicates Israel’s intention to remove the entirety of Palestine from Gaza.
As the ground invasion seems imminent, we must remember the political complications of the region which inhibit accurate information reporting. There is no land on Earth more politically charged than this region, even simple road maps are highly controversial. Over the past few decades, Israeli settlements have encroached into terrain that the international community generally recognizes as Gaza. As such, Israeli tanks are both on the border of Gaza, and already inside Gaza, depending on diplomatic perspective. This creates challenges as to where combat actions are taking place, as both sides usually refer to the same location with two different names.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 16, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233016Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230016Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: EGYPT STAGES HUMANITARIAN AID ON GAZA BORDER. SITUATION IN ISRAEL REMAINS TENSE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: So far, humanitarian aid has largely not been allowed to cross the Rafah border crossing into Gaza, as peace talks have failed to implement a humanitarian ceasefire.
USS Herschel “Woody” Williams (ESB 4) begins steaming North from the Western Coast of Africa following routine exercises. As of Oct 01, her new homeport is NSA Souda Bay, Greece. AC: This is a newer class of vessel that functions as an Expeditionary Sea Base. Quietly sending her back to her home port in Greece would be a strategically useful move to bolster US Naval assets in the region.
Europe: In Belgium, Islamic terrorist fires into a crowd in Brussels, killing two Swedish citizens and injuring many others. After pledging allegiance to ISIS in the livestream of the attack, the suspect remains at large and is considered armed and dangerous.
-HomeFront-
USA: Coal train derails in Pueblo, CO as it traversed a bridge over I-25. The driver of a cargo truck was killed in the bridge collapse. The NTSB is currently investigating the incident. Another train derails in Mitchell, S.D. causing minor spill of grain according to local media.
Illinois: A 71 year old man stabs a Palestinian woman and her 6 year old son in Plainsfield. The boy died of his wounds at a local hospital. Local police confirm this to be a terror attack/hate crime.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel has cut internet access to Gaza, so what may appear to be a lull in the fighting may simply be survivorship bias as few internet sources remain available for information to get out of the conflict zone. From Israeli media, the bombing/shelling of Gaza, West Bank, and the Golan Heights continues. Limited strikes also are periodically being conducted in the border regions of Lebanon and Syria as well. The airports in Damascus and Aleppo continue to be struck regularly by Israel according to local sources. Hamas rocket attacks have waned in the past few days, but still sporadically target Israeli cities.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 17, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233017Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230017Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: TENSIONS FLARE IN GAZA AFTER STRIKE ON HOSPITAL. UNREST SPREADS THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Developing information indicates the Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza was struck with a large munition. The hospital had failed to be evacuated, and was filled to capacity with wounded from earlier strikes. Initial reports indicate the casualty count may be in the hundreds. Who conducted the strike is uncertain ATT. Palestinian authorities claim it was an Israeli airstrike, and Israel claims it was a failed HAMAS missile strike that missed its target.
Immediately following the strike, demonstrations erupted throughout the Arab world. Many Arab nations have declared tomorrow to be a day of mourning for the victims of the strike. Extremely tense demonstrations are being reported throughout most of the Middle East. In Jordan, a riot broke out at the Israeli Embassy as demonstrators breached the compound and set it on fire. Clashes were also reported at the Israeli Embassy in Turkey. Kuwait has ordered its citizens to leave Lebanon. Israel orders citizens to leave Turkey, and citizens in Morocco to be on alert for attacks.
Russia and UAE have requested an emergency meeting of the UNSC tomorrow morning.
President Biden plans visit to the conflict zone as other European heads of state also head to the region.
-HomeFront-
USA: Biden reportedly plans to ask Congress for a $100 billion aid package for Ukraine.
-Analyst Comments-
Regardless of the culprit of the Gaza Hospital Strike, this incident has been yet another spark threatening to expand the Gaza conflagration into a substantial region-wide conflict. Many nation-states are recalling their citizens from adversarial nations as battle lines solidify. Extremely kinetic riots have broken out all over the Middle East, causing mass confusion.
As foreign leaders pour into Israel for diplomatic talks, politicians who seek to travel to Israel for a simple photo op may find themselves in a truly kinetic situation that a small security team cannot handle. German Chancelor Scholz was involved in a combat engagement earlier today, as his plane came under fire at Ben Gurion Airport, causing him and his security detail to seek shelter from a rocket attack on the bare tarmac. Various other politicians have had similar close-calls since the start of this conflict.
Tensions will remain high as world leaders attempt to solve the question of Palestinian refugees. Jordanian King Abdullah II has issued his “red line” that no Palestinians will be accepted into Jordan or Egypt.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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