via @EmailGateBot
PP The Wire 0000Z June 25, 2023

PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 000025Z JUN 23
ICOD: 233024Z JUN 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: Russian Coup Attempt Resolved Somewhat Peacefully.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: Prigozhin's coup has ended as abruptly as it started, following successful negotiations between Wagner and the Kremlin. Details of the peace agreement are sketchy, but statements from the Kremlin indicate that an agreement was reached at the behest of mediation by Belorussian President Lukashenko (who is an old friend of Prigozhin). This comes following the downing of several Russian helicopters by Wagner forces. Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov details the results of the agreement as follows (in no particular order):
1. All Wagner troops taking part in the coup will stand down and return to their barracks/encampments.
2. All Wagner troops taking part in todays actions will not be prosecuted, and those that initially refused to take part in this operation will be offered contracts folding them into the MoD.
3. The criminal case against Prigozhin will be dropped, and Prigozhin will be relocating to Belarus.
4. Russia's operation in UKR will continue unaffected.
5. Putin will not be addressing the nation anytime soon.

Analyst Comment: Though a peaceful solution appears to have been reached (after the death of 12+ pilots), caution must be reserved that this incident may not over yet. Rumors have been rampant all day, with no clear proof or indication of what deal was reached. Whatever the details of the agreement are, today's actions indicate that this affair was more likely a genuine power struggle, and not (as some have theorized) a master ploy by Putin to consolidate power. Putin will of course use this opportunity as a way to consolidate power now that the incident is largely over, but it's unlikely that this entire event was premeditated for that purpose.Of course, Russians are masters of Maskirovka, Military Deception, so we never can really be sure of what is real. However, today's events left Putin with a black eye, and allowed for UKR/USA propaganda efforts an easy win. Though the long term implications of today's events is uncertain, Russia's political structure and senior leadership are going to be feeling the sting of this for a while.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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PP The Wire 1800Z October 07, 2023

PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 180007Z OCT 23
ICOD: 173007Z OCT 23
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BLUF: WAR BREAKS OUT IN ISRAEL/GAZA AS HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH LAUNCH ATTACKS.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Conflict erupts as HAMAS launches complex, multi-domain attack on Israel by air, land, and sea. Over 5,000 rockets fired, many of which have landed in the industrial sector of Tel Aviv. Several Israeli tanks have been knocked out as attacks occur along all border outposts. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is on high alert, and has carried out harassing attacks via motos along the Israel/Lebanon border. UN troops in Lebanon have returned to their bases. Israeli PM Netanyahu declares state of War.
-Analyst Comments-
This is no harassing fires, this is the real McCoy. HAMAS has clearly been planning this attack for a very long time, and certainly has only been able to amass this sheer volume of munitions via direct support from Iran. This is the most substantial conflict throughout the region in decades. The most perplexing facet of the war so far is that Israel does not seem to have detected the build up of forces prior to the attack. In this regard, this attack is reminiscent of the Vietnam War’s Tet Offensive. Online chatter suggests that this attack may have been directly funded by the US’s payment of $6 billion to Iran mere weeks ago, but as of yet there’s no direct evidence to support this (though it makes sense). The US has pledged “support”, but what that support might be is certainly in question, as recent reporting in Congress has indicated the US is in a poor state to even arm its own territorial defenses, much less render any substantial military aid to Israel. Funding will almost certainly be allocated from somewhere to send to Israel, but in terms of real military hardware support the US can’t offer much.
What remains in question is whether or not this war will expand to include other regional players. So far, Lebanon seems to be in play, so the possibility of this war expanding is very real. All eyes should be on other regional players who may not take kindly to a total war/aggressive retaliation throughout Gaza. As with most military operations, the most critical part is the first 24 hours, which will be extremely indicative as to how the conflict will develop.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1730Z October 07, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 173008Z OCT 23
ICOD: 170008Z OCT 23
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BLUF: ISRAEL DECLARES WAR ON PALESTINE IN RESPONSE TO ATTACKS. TOTAL MOBILIZATION UNDERWAY. LSCO IMMINENT IN GAZA.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Following complex, multi-domain attacks by Hamas into Israel, Israel prepares for Large Scale Combat Operation (LSCO) in Gaza. 300,000+ IDF reservists called up, including elderly/retired citizens. Israeli casualties so far 700+. IDF 36th AD mobilizing to staging areas in the North. IDF 162nd AD deploying to Gaza border. All Israeli settlements within 10km of Lebanon border ordered evac’d.
CSG-12 maneuvering into eastern Med to prepare for possible USPER evac. USA in talks to send $8 Billion+ aid package to Israel.
-Analyst Comments-
Israeli LSCO within Gaza to begin immediately. In terms of personnel and equipment involved, this war is reminiscent of the Yom Kippur War of 1973. It is unclear as to if an Arab coalition will form in response to IDF actions in Gaza, but that potential is great. Currently, regional actors are treading carefully, with many Arab states issuing declarations of Palestinian support, but not issuing mobilization orders in any meaningful way…yet. The world is waiting to see what the Israel will do within Gaza, and what preparations the Palestinians have undertaken to counter this obvious counterattack.
Attacks on Israelis (and Americans) around the world are expected as lone-wolf actors and sleeper cells alike activate to target Palestinian adversaries around the world. Israeli tourists in Egypt have already been attacked. Heightened situational awareness and vigilance is strongly recommended at this time due to the increased potential for malign actors to take advantage of the chaos by launching local attacks.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1800Z October 09, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 180009Z OCT 23
ICOD: 173009Z OCT 23
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BLUF: ARAB ISRAELI WAR CONTINUES, LSCO IMMINENT IN GAZA. HOMEFRONT ATTACKS POSSIBLE IF SITUATION ESCALATES.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Arab-Israeli War continues as Palestinian attacks enter third day. Israeli forces continuing to mobilize along Gaza border, Lebanese border, and West Bank. Turkey issues warning to US to not get involved. Many Arab states calling for de-escalation, though this seems unlikely as IDF forces mobilize for a LSCO within Gaza and/or West Bank. Israel has already shut off electricity, water, food, gas, and all other utilities to Gaza, which is now in a state of siege. Egypt publicly aiding Palestine with medical supplies through their shared border crossing, how much other support is given is unknown.
Far East Front: In the Pacific, Chinese incursion flights within the Taiwan Straight continue following the largest PLAN naval drill in history last month. PLA forces may seek to capitalize on conflicts erupting around the world to increase presence patrols throughout the South China Sea as well as in the waters surrounding Taiwan. No indications are present so far pointing to significant Chinese military actions IVO Taiwan, but harassment activities will likely continue as in the past.
-The Home Front-
USA: Tensions continue along the Southern US border as the immigration crisis reaches new heights. CBP reports 3.1 million immigrants crossed the border for the 2023 fiscal year (though this number does not include the 630,000 “gotaways” who evaded capture).
-Analyst Comments-
On all fronts, information warfare is substantial, with many citizens rushing to support one side or the other, with almost zero appreciation for the historical complexity of the Middle East. The current conflict within Israel/Palestine is the manifestation of issues that run deeper than any of us can imagine. Regardless, conflict in the Middle East has the potential to affect life at home via gasoline prices and availability, tax dollars being spent, inflation, and vulnerabilities to the homeland increasing as military hardware is sent overseas.
Palestinian forces are well known for implanting sleeper cells around the world, and encouraging lone-wolf attacks beyond their borders. Consequently, though this conflict is taking place overseas, citizens must remain vigilant and observant of the potential for demonstrations within the US to become violent. Several clashes have already been reported in several US cities between pro-Israel and pro-Palestine supporters, but any substantial attacks are dependent on Israel’s actions within Gaza, and how the conflict escalates over the next few days.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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Audio only version for those that prefer that format: https://youtu.be/EWzxxoAqfbE
Also available on all major podcasting apps and on Twitter

RR The Wire 1700Z October 10, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 170010Z OCT 23
ICOD: 160010Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES PREPARATION FOR GAZA INVASION.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Arab-Israeli War continues as Palestinian attacks enter fourth day. Battle lines form as various regional actors begin aligning with mutual interest throughout the region. Israel has warned Egypt that any convoys sent to Gaza will be destroyed, Egypt plans to send convoys despite the targeting. Israel has confirmed the US will directly enter the war if Hezbollah invades from the North. Russia has suggested that if the US enters the war, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq will also join the fray. Saudi and Emirati leaders have begun setting the stage for peace talks but at this late hour, with Israel poised to strike, there is virtually nothing that will prevent an Israeli invasion of Gaza.
Far East Front: ROK officials claim DPRK planning surprise attack utilizing the same tactics as HAMAS. NFI ATT.
-The Home Front-
USA: Domestic tensions remain high resulting from internal political strife. Defense stocks surge in anticipation of wartime weapons production. Domestic protests/demonstrations continue, leading to clashes between pro-Israel and pro-Palestine groups. Increase scrutiny of border crossings indicate that Palestinian sleeper cells are almost certainly already within the US, though the extent of this threat is not yet known.
-Analyst Comments-
Dehumanization rhetoric continues as calls for escalation run rampant on social media.
The authority by which Israel has claimed US involvement will begin is unclear, though likely an accurate representation of American policy maker’s desires. American politicians have openly begun calling for the US to declare war on Iran. Depending on Iran’s future involvement after Israel’s invasion of Gaza, this remains a sobering possibility. A much higher possibility (70% chance) is for Israel herself to conduct surgical strikes within Iran.
Any substantial military activity on the part of North Korea remains unlikely as DPRK’s battle plans for South Korea have remained relatively unchanged for 50+ years. It is unlikely that DPRK will change their fate on a whim, much less on an event taking place halfway around the world. DPRK officials likely seek to divide America’s attention, along with ROK forces who seek to continue defense funding at a time when the US is spread thin. In any case, North Korea will not act without the support of China and Russia, both of which are highly motivated to destabilize the American foothold in Asia.
The impacts this War brings to the average American are variable. If this war continues to escalate, gas prices will almost certainly rise and remain high until the end of the year. OPEC has already pledged daily production cuts until the end of the year, and American support to Israel is likely to result in further tightening of POL production. US Strategic Petroleum Reserves are critically low, as is domestic US oil production. Following major incidents of explosions/fires at major US refineries over the past two years, American POL production remains a major strategic vulnerability.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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Audio version: https://youtu.be/olK6jE1CXNU
Twitter version: https://x.com/s2_underground/status/1711788815356985504?s=20

RR The Wire 1630Z October 11, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163011Z OCT 23
ICOD: 153011Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES TARGETS IN SYRIA AND LEBANON. FINLAND DETECTS UNDERSEA PIPELINE ATTACK.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: IDF makes final preparations for Gaza invasion. Israel strikes targets in Lebanon as Hezbollah militants conduct limited skirmishes along the border. Israel strikes targets in Syria in response to alleged mortar fire originating IVO Quneitra. IDF begins Naval bombardment and airstrikes of Egypt/Gaza Rafah border crossing after ordering noncombatants in Gaza to flee to Egypt via same crossing. Evidence begins to mount indicating the use of White Phosphorous rounds by IDF on Gaza. Various Palestinian-aligned splinter groups make preparations for operations around the world, increasing threatening rhetoric, particularly in the US and Europe.
US CSG-12 arrives O/S, Eastern Med. 101st ABN reportedly preparing to deploy to Jordan. Various US SOF units already deployed to Israel. HMS Prince of Wales CSG departs Norfolk, Virginia, possibly also to deploy to the Med at a later date.
European Front: Clashes erupt at protests as conflict escalates in the Middle East. The US sends additional $200 million to Ukraine.
Baltic Front: Finland alleges deliberate pipeline sabotage after detecting pressure drop in the Baltic-Connector pipeline on Sunday. This pipeline transports LNG between Finland and Estonia.
Balkan Front: Bosnian nationalists rally in Sarajevo to support Palestine on the eve of high tensions in the region. Before the Israeli war, tensions between Bosnia/Kosovo flared, resulting in border clashes that injured demonstrators.
-The Home Front-
USA: California creates and implements Ebony Alert, a dedicated Amber Alert for missing Black children. This is the first emergency service to prioritize response based on race. US House report indicates 99% of illegal immigrants encountered since 2021 have not been deported, and contact has been lost with the overwhelming majority.
-Analyst Comments-
Information warfare abounds following various atrocities of war, many of which cannot independently be verified. Caution must be exercised in the information space as all sides in the current conflict have long histories of narrative shaping. Outside the immediate warzone, tensions will continue to grow as both sides demonize any attempt at neutrality. Many US politicians and pundits have shared uncorroborated stories, old videos, and completely false information on social media, with no concern for verifying most of the information they are repeating. Due to the Illusory Truth Effect, it will become increasingly difficult to discern the truth as time goes on.
Extremely serious and concerning rhetoric runs rampant on social media; everything from chemical to nuclear weapons has been openly discussed by high ranking political officials on all sides of the conflict. The question remains as to how much of this rhetoric will be backed up with action. The use of White Phosphorus munitions by IDF is highly likely, as video evidence all but confirms this munition’s use. However, genuine video evidence has been mixed with old videos from the Syrian War, further weaponizing the use of information in this conlict.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1600Z October 12, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 160012Z OCT 23
ICOD: 150012Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES DAMASCUS AND ALEPPO. PALESTINE DECLARES OCTOBER 13 GLOBAL DAY OF JIHAD.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel expands conflict by conducting pre-emptive strikes in the heart of Syria, with IDF officials confirming futures strikes to take place over the next few days. The Damascus and Aleppo airports were taken out of action in the strikes. Israel continues bombing campaign of Gaza with the goal of total annihilation as described by IDF officials. IDF officials have vowed to turn Gaza into a “tent city”, with no structure left standing. Israeli strikes in Lebanon continue as harassing fires originate from border skirmishes. Various Lebanese Hezbollah subgroups have declared a general mobilization. Thousands of Egyptian Bedouin fighters stage on the Egyptian border with Gaza with the intent to join the war. Iranian IRGC ground forces reportedly making movement toward Iraq border.
Palestine declares Global Day of Jihad scheduled for Friday, Oct 13th. Many claims of demonstrations and more violent actions are planned to reach a zenith tomorrow, as users on social media announce planned demonstrations in most US cities as well as throughout Europe.
US CSG-12 remains O/S, Eastern Med. 101st ABN preparing for mobilization, allegedly to a remote FOB in Israel. NFI ATT. HMS Queen Elizabeth CSG making preparations for possible deployment to the Middle East.
US State Department reaffirms standard policy of charging fees for rescue flights. DoS will offer emergency evacuation plan for Americans stranded in Israel, but will only rescue citizens if they sign a promissory note obligating citizens to repay rescue costs. Despite common thought to the contrary, this is a standard DoS policy.
-HomeFront-
USA: Online rhetoric and threats of violence peak in anticipation of the Global Day of Jihad tomorrow. Demonstrations in support of Palestine are planned for most major US cities.
-Analyst Comments-
Despite many claims of atrocities being walked back as no evidence surfaces, truth is no longer able to stop this war from escalating.
Based on the public rhetoric of IDF officials, and Israel’s military actions so far, there is zero chance of proportional response. The lines are beginning to blur between what Israel considers to be HAMAS, and the Palestinian population. Based on IDF officials’ statements so far, it is highly likely that Israel intends to totally eradicate every Palestinian from Gaza. Talks are allegedly already underway with Egypt (and other nations) to take in the survivors/refugees that remain.
Palestinian threats of a Global Day of Jihad are genuine, and intertwine civil-disruption operations with more deliberate terror attempts. As such any and all demonstrations remain high-risk events. Heightened situational awareness is strongly recommended over the next few days as the risk of lone-wolf attacks (or even sleeper cell activations) is increased. Due to American support to Israel, attacks on American citizens abroad are highly likely, as are random attacks within the United States. There is no specific evidence of more coordinated attacks on the horizon, though as this operation was clearly being planned for at least a year, more sophisticated terror attacks on the homefront are a possibility.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z October 13, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213013Z OCT 23
ICOD: 203013Z OCT 23
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BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS GROUND COMBAT OPERATIONS AS INVASION OF GAZA IS IMMINENT. IDF ORDERS EVAC OF CIVILIANS IN GAZA. DAY OF JIHAD RESULTS IN FEW ISOLATED ATTACKS.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel orders the total evacuation of Gaza north of the Wadi Gaza, which roughly divides Gaza in half. The UN urges Israel to rescind the order, as less than 24 hours has been given to evacuate over 1.1 million people. The UN states that it is “impossible” to evacuate everyone by the deadline. Nevertheless, Israel has begun limited ground combat operations on the outskirts of Gaza. Limited skirmishes have begun in West Bank and the Golan Heights as well.
The Lebanese Army has allegedly begun shelling targets in northern Israel. NFI ATT.
Strategic military movements are being reported in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, and Turkey, but due to lack of corroborating information and unreliable sources little intelligence can be gained ATT regarding the strategic moves being made throughout the Arab world.
US CSG-12 remains O/S Eastern Med. CSG-2 steaming into the Mediterranean Sea. US deploys B-1B LANCER assets from 7th Bomb Wing to U.K. amid growing tensions.
Terror Attack Update: Isolated lone-wolf style stabbing attacks occur in France and China. More substantial attacks have not yet materialized as of the publication of this report.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestinian demonstrations continue in most major US cities, with minor clashes reported as Pro-Israeli protestors join the fray.
-Analyst Comments-
In retrospect, the short notice offered by the declaration of Global Jihad probably limited the number of attacks that could have been carried out with any success. However, now that the ultimatum has been issued, the threat of domestic attacks is not limited to a single day. Israeli offensives into Gaza will likely be a flashpoint for genuine attacks and false flag operations alike, encouraging enhanced vigilance as tensions in the Middle East remain high.
Israeli forces are likely making final preparations for a ground offensive, which may begin in earnest within the next 24-48 hours. Limited ground clearance operations have been conducted along the Gaza border, but the main offensive thrust is likely to occur after a final artillery barrage/bombing campaign along the Gaza front lines.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z October 14, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213014Z OCT 23
ICOD: 210014Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: EGYPT BEGINS ALLOWING FOREIGN NATIONAL EVAC FROM GAZA. ISRAEL CONTINUES AIR CAMPAIGN IN GAZA.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues aerial bombing campaign of Gaza. Large scale ground operation has not yet begun, and the US has urged Israel to postpone the ground invasion as noncombatants largely have not been evacuated. Egypt begins allowing foreign nationals to exit Gaza via the Rafah border crossing.
US continues deployment preparations for the evacuation of noncombatants in Gaza, though details are minimal at this stage. In Israel, US DoS begins the evacuation of non-essential US personnel from diplomatic posts. Correction to previous Wire: CSG-2 is not yet in the Mediterranean Sea, only having departed Norfolk this morning after a delay. This battle group will likely be observed transiting Gibraltar in approximately 10 days. CSG-12 remains O/S Eastern Med.
European Front: Demonstrations continue in support of Palestine in many major European cities, despite many nations declaring public support for Palestine to be illegal under recently passed terrorism laws. Russian diplomat Nikolai Kobrinets found dead in Turkey following possible heart attack in his hotel room. NFI ATT.
-HomeFront-
USA: Lake City Ammunition plant to halt all commercial ammo sales in response to “overseas events” which will result in higher demand via military contracts. Explosion at Hornady plant in Grand Island, Nebraska kills one worker and injures several.

-Analyst Comments-
Information warfare continues to be a persistent threat, especially within the combat zone. Israeli officials continue to order a southern evacuation route from Gaza using the Beach Road and Salah Eddine Road, while also conducting airstrikes on these roads. Consequently, Hamas militants use these strikes to push the narrative that the IDF will strike any fleeing civilians, and staying put is the better option. As always, the truth is likely in the grey area between these two positions. Israel has been observed to target civilians, hospitals, and humanitarian activities with little regard for Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS). Many UN employees and international aid workers have been killed in these strikes. On the other hand, HAMAS has a long history of using civilian locations and structures for military purposes, further blurring the lines between civilians and militants.
Public statements by diplomats are more clear. Israeli President Isaac Herzog has outlined the Israeli position strongly indicating that Israel considers Palestine and HAMAS to be one and the same. This strongly indicates Israel’s intention to remove the entirety of Palestine from Gaza.
As the ground invasion seems imminent, we must remember the political complications of the region which inhibit accurate information reporting. There is no land on Earth more politically charged than this region, even simple road maps are highly controversial. Over the past few decades, Israeli settlements have encroached into terrain that the international community generally recognizes as Gaza. As such, Israeli tanks are both on the border of Gaza, and already inside Gaza, depending on diplomatic perspective. This creates challenges as to where combat actions are taking place, as both sides usually refer to the same location with two different names.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 16, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233016Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230016Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: EGYPT STAGES HUMANITARIAN AID ON GAZA BORDER. SITUATION IN ISRAEL REMAINS TENSE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: So far, humanitarian aid has largely not been allowed to cross the Rafah border crossing into Gaza, as peace talks have failed to implement a humanitarian ceasefire.
USS Herschel “Woody” Williams (ESB 4) begins steaming North from the Western Coast of Africa following routine exercises. As of Oct 01, her new homeport is NSA Souda Bay, Greece. AC: This is a newer class of vessel that functions as an Expeditionary Sea Base. Quietly sending her back to her home port in Greece would be a strategically useful move to bolster US Naval assets in the region.
Europe: In Belgium, Islamic terrorist fires into a crowd in Brussels, killing two Swedish citizens and injuring many others. After pledging allegiance to ISIS in the livestream of the attack, the suspect remains at large and is considered armed and dangerous.
-HomeFront-
USA: Coal train derails in Pueblo, CO as it traversed a bridge over I-25. The driver of a cargo truck was killed in the bridge collapse. The NTSB is currently investigating the incident. Another train derails in Mitchell, S.D. causing minor spill of grain according to local media.
Illinois: A 71 year old man stabs a Palestinian woman and her 6 year old son in Plainsfield. The boy died of his wounds at a local hospital. Local police confirm this to be a terror attack/hate crime.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel has cut internet access to Gaza, so what may appear to be a lull in the fighting may simply be survivorship bias as few internet sources remain available for information to get out of the conflict zone. From Israeli media, the bombing/shelling of Gaza, West Bank, and the Golan Heights continues. Limited strikes also are periodically being conducted in the border regions of Lebanon and Syria as well. The airports in Damascus and Aleppo continue to be struck regularly by Israel according to local sources. Hamas rocket attacks have waned in the past few days, but still sporadically target Israeli cities.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 17, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233017Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230017Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: TENSIONS FLARE IN GAZA AFTER STRIKE ON HOSPITAL. UNREST SPREADS THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Developing information indicates the Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza was struck with a large munition. The hospital had failed to be evacuated, and was filled to capacity with wounded from earlier strikes. Initial reports indicate the casualty count may be in the hundreds. Who conducted the strike is uncertain ATT. Palestinian authorities claim it was an Israeli airstrike, and Israel claims it was a failed HAMAS missile strike that missed its target.
Immediately following the strike, demonstrations erupted throughout the Arab world. Many Arab nations have declared tomorrow to be a day of mourning for the victims of the strike. Extremely tense demonstrations are being reported throughout most of the Middle East. In Jordan, a riot broke out at the Israeli Embassy as demonstrators breached the compound and set it on fire. Clashes were also reported at the Israeli Embassy in Turkey. Kuwait has ordered its citizens to leave Lebanon. Israel orders citizens to leave Turkey, and citizens in Morocco to be on alert for attacks.
Russia and UAE have requested an emergency meeting of the UNSC tomorrow morning.
President Biden plans visit to the conflict zone as other European heads of state also head to the region.
-HomeFront-
USA: Biden reportedly plans to ask Congress for a $100 billion aid package for Ukraine.
-Analyst Comments-
Regardless of the culprit of the Gaza Hospital Strike, this incident has been yet another spark threatening to expand the Gaza conflagration into a substantial region-wide conflict. Many nation-states are recalling their citizens from adversarial nations as battle lines solidify. Extremely kinetic riots have broken out all over the Middle East, causing mass confusion.
As foreign leaders pour into Israel for diplomatic talks, politicians who seek to travel to Israel for a simple photo op may find themselves in a truly kinetic situation that a small security team cannot handle. German Chancelor Scholz was involved in a combat engagement earlier today, as his plane came under fire at Ben Gurion Airport, causing him and his security detail to seek shelter from a rocket attack on the bare tarmac. Various other politicians have had similar close-calls since the start of this conflict.
Tensions will remain high as world leaders attempt to solve the question of Palestinian refugees. Jordanian King Abdullah II has issued his “red line” that no Palestinians will be accepted into Jordan or Egypt.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 18, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233018Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230018Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH FOLLOWING GAZA HOSPITAL INCIDENT. RUSSIA INCREASES PRESENSE PATROLS IN BLACK SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Israeli state media announces that all preparations for the ground invasion of Gaza are complete.
Situation regarding the Gaza Hospital strike remains unclear as information warfare takes center stage. Debate continues as to whether the strike was indeed an Israeli airstrike, or a failed HAMAS rocket attack. Various Arab States continue to issue travel advisories and recall notices for their citizens abroad. Demonstrations throughout the Middle East continue to be extremely kinetic, as tensions remain high throughout the region.
Russia: President Putin gives the order for persistent CAP to begin in the neutral airspace over the Black Sea. In a televised address, Putin specifically mentioned that the MiG-31K aircraft will be armed with Kh-47M2 KINZHAL (NATO: AS-24 KILLJOY) missiles. These are Russia’s newest hypersonic ballistic missiles that, in his speech, Putin specifically mentioned would be within range of the American CSG’s in the Mediterranean Sea.
-HomeFront-
USA: Biden to address the nation at 2000R tomorrow evening.
-Analyst Comments-
Follow on information regarding the Gaza Hospital strike, has not resulted in the confirmation of anything; we’re not entirely certain a strike was even conducted on the physical hospital building. Mountains of evidence exist to prove any narrative; but sifting through the fake photos/videos will take some time to increase analytical certainty as to what happened. Regardless of the truth, the Arab world is outraged and based on the statements of regional leaders, there is very little distinction between an airstrike and a failed missile launch. In the absence of forensic evidence, many Arab leaders consider the attack to be Israel’s fault even if it was a HAMAS rocket, as HAMAS would not have conducted the attack without Israeli attacks on Palestine. However flawed this logic may be, this appears to be the narrative playing out in many public statements by foreign pundits/leaders, as well as online chatter surrounding the incident. Consequently, it is already too late for truth to result in restraint…on either side. Demonstrations will likely continue, and increase in severity as the Israeli ground offensive begins.
Vladimir Putin’s casual reference to American aircraft carriers being within range of hypersonic missiles may seem to be alarming, but is almost certainly Putin’s classic way of warning the west. American CSGs can be targeted in any number of ways, much less by aircraft that will have to fly over NATO airspace (Turkey) to cause trouble. However, this reference does indicate the opposition to US presence in the Med. As the US continues nearly persistent cargo flights into Israel, and MSM reports reference potentially thousands of US troops becoming involved in some way with this conflict, these actions will be perceived as US aggression in the region. On the diplomatic front, atmospherics indicate the US has taken a back seat. US officials have been kept waiting by foreign leaders, or meetings with American politicians have been canceled outright. Other interactions between US officials and Arab leaders have been lukewarm at best. As Israel begins the ground operation in Gaza, the potential for flashpoints to occur is extremely high which may cause problems not just on the diplomatic front, but at home as well.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 19, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233019Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230019Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL INVASION OF GAZA IMMINENT. US INVOLVEMENT IN THE CONFLICT DEEPENS AS ATTACKS CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: After much delay, the Israeli invasion of Gaza appears to be on the horizon. Attacks are beginning to involve US military presence throughout the region, with rocket and drone attacks being reported at the Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq. Missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen were also intercepted by the USS Carney (DDG 64), currently underway in the Red Sea.
Europe: Multiple terror attacks/incidents have been occurring constantly since the beginning of the Israeli-HAMAS War. Stabbing incidents appear to be the most common attack vector, continuing the trend from the past few years.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations and riots continue in most major US cities. Hundreds of rioters were arrested at the US Capitol following a rally in support of Palestine. The DoS has issued a global travel warning, urging Americans on the entire planet to use Caution and be alert for attacks.
-Analyst Comments-
The Israeli invasion of Gaza is behind schedule by American standards…if that operation were to be a quick and limited campaign. LSCOs take time, even if the combat zone is only 140 sq mi. The preparation time needed by Israeli forces strongly indicates Israel does not believe this will be a quick war, and that the IDF was not prepared for this operation or a total mobilization. The latter idea is supported by Israeli politicians who have been openly stating that this will not be a quick operation. Other rhetoric from Israeli sources indicates that an annexation of Gaza is guaranteed, but how much of Gaza is to be taken by Israel is not yet determined. External actors (and international politics) will probably be the deciding factor.
On the diplomatic front, developing reports that the US has given “the green light” to an Israeli invasion of Gaza are extremely alarming. If these reports are true, and taking all factors into account, the US has done nothing to ease tensions in the region, and have openly been advocating for expanding this conflict. In Congress, various politicians continue to openly call for war with Iran, and other nations. This alone makes the proposals and efforts by Russia and China look reasonable by comparison. The irony of these two nations being the voices of peace in the UN is palpable, and will paint the US into a diplomatic corner as US foreign policy remains stagnant.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 20, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233020Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230020Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: US AGAIN ATTEMPTS TO DELAY ISRAELI INVASION OF GAZA. STRATEGIC MANEUVERING CONTINUES ON ALL SIDES AS PREPARATIONS FOR WAR CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Following Israeli statements that the IDF are ready for an invasion of Gaza, the US DoS is reportedly working to delay the campaign. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman proposes the creation of a Palestinian state, based on the 1967 borders.
Various militant groups continue to amass on the Syrian/Israeli border. The composition and disposition of these forces is not clear and extremely variable as many independent Islamic groups/tribes prepare for a more region-wide conflict.
Europe: General unrest remains following events in the Middle East. Various attacks are being reported throughout Europe but it is unclear as to if these attacks are deliberate terror attacks that remain unreported, or if they are more representative of general crime.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations and riots continue regularly throughout the US. So far, demonstrations have exhibited the standard volatility expected by today’s standards. More substantial/kinetic demonstrations are likely as flashpoints are reached in the Middle East. US politics remains in turmoil as Congress remains stagnant on a choice of House Speaker.
-Analyst Comments-
In the Middle East, all concerned parties are trading space, for time. Efforts are being undertaken by Israeli officials to shift expectations of what the invasion might look like. The US is attempting to delay the invasion so as to give military sources time to secure the release of more hostages. Israel, demonstrating extreme concerns with what is certain to be a largely counterinsurgency war, most of which will be fought underground, is attempting to bombard Gaza sufficiently before the ground operation begins. Netanyahu, who before this crisis was on the brink of experiencing a Civil War of his own, is unlikely to politically withstand anything less than a total initial invasion of Gaza, and at least a partial annexation of Gaza territory.
Most Arab nations (and a few European states) are concerned with the conflict expanding into Lebanon and beyond, and as such have taken precautions to improve their own readiness. A grand bluff is developing as Iran exerts influence throughout the region, and strengthen ties with Russia.
Around the world, care must be taken to accurately portray terror threats. MSM sources tend to underreport terror attacks that do not fit their chosen narrative, but amplify attacks that sensationalize violence. Consequently, determining the reasoning behind an attack is very difficult; discerning between regular street violence and a coordinated attack is not easy. Accusations are rampant that some jurisdictions are concealing the nature of attacks, in order to downplay the terror threat. Due to the nature of these atmospherics, none of these accusations can be verified without legal testimony, which is rarely given. However, constant vigilance is recommended as uncertainty regarding the impending actions in the Middle East result in increased potential for hostile actions here at home.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 21, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233021Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230021Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES TO MANDATE EVAC OF NORTHERN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli forces continue to drop leaflets urging a total evacuation of northern Gaza. Leaflets indicate that Israel will likely consider any person north of Wadi Gaza to be a threat. Israeli officials express concern with what is likely to become the Northern Front upon the invasion of Gaza. Local reports indicate small convoys carrying humanitarian aid have crossed the Rafah border crossing, with the Red Crescent taking the lead in distribution of aid resources. How much aid has been distributed is not currently known.
Saudi/Iranian relations deepen following talks to impose sanctions on Israel. Sporadic drone attacks continue to target US military bases throughout the Middle East.
Europe: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue to grow in size and severity. In London today, over 100,000 protestors rallied to show support for Palestine.
-HomeFront-
USA: POL markets tighten as uncertainty in the Middle East impacts crude prices. Perhaps more significantly, OPEC members continue to cut production by 1.3 million BPD. Border Crisis: The US reports a total of 2.47 million encounters for FY 2023, which is the highest number of illegals encountered since records began.
-Analyst Comments-
While the world awaits Israel’s next move, the Arab world is making moves of their own. Saudi Arabia and Iran, two nations which have historically had an icy relationship have experienced a thawing of tensions. Though no confirmation can be obtained, reportedly the IRGC Quds Force commander, BG Ismail Qa'ani has arrived in western Syria to coordinate the various pro-Iranian militant groups staged on the Israeli border. Though the veracity of this reporting cannot be judged, this would be another sign of preparations being made with the expectation of this conflict rapidly expanding.
From the nation-state level, down to individual tribes, it is possible that many Islamic groups are putting aside their differences for the time being in order to focus on a common enemy: Israel and the nations that support her. These factors will play a role in everything from economics to general street violence as groups align with their historic allies, and even forge new temporary alliances as well.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 23, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233023Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230023Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ALASKA AIRLINES EXPERIENCES ATTEMPTED HIJACKING. CONFLICT CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Rocket and Drone attacks on US military bases in the Middle East increase in frequency following increased tensions in the region. In Israel, the main offensive thrust into Gaza has not yet begun. Sporadic rocket attacks continue from Gaza as Israeli forces conduct limited clearance operations in some districts on the Gaza border.
Substantial advertising campaigns are observed to be spreading regarding Western support for Israel. Children’s content on various media platforms has been specifically targeted by ads encouraging support for Israel.
South Africa: Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) leader Julius Malema increases hostile rhetoric, declaring EFF support to Palestine. AC: The situation in South Africa has been tense for many months following Malema’s calls for the murder of white farmers, but rhetoric has increased in severity following the conflict in the Middle East. EFF rallies in support of Palestine continue to be held in Pretoria.
-HomeFront-
USA: Tyson Foods announces major investment in Protix, a company dedicated to insect production. Reports indicate Protix intends to build an insect processing facility in the US with the goal of providing insect-based materials intended for human consumption. It is not clear as to how much Tyson has invested in this company.
Terrorism Update: Horizon Flight 2059 (flying for Alaska Airlines) experiences attempted hijacking after an authorized jumpseat passenger attempts to shut down the engines mid-flight. The assailant also deployed engine fire suppression systems in an apparent attempt to bring the aircraft down. The two pilots flying the aircraft subdued the hijacker and landed safely. Details are vague at best, but officials state that the hijacker was an off-duty pilot who was properly authorized to fly in the jumpseat, as is standard practice on most airlines.
-Analyst Comments-
The attempted hijacking of AS2059 is significant as the attack was undertaken by an approved person. Based on the publicly available details following the incident, this was likely a very deliberate hijacking attempt. As the attacker likely could not reach the yoke, the attacker knew that the highest chance for success lay with shutting down the engines, and pulling the fire suppression T-handles. Both of which are reachable by someone standing behind the pilots on the Embraer E-175. This action would have resulted in shutting off hydraulics, fuel flow, and a number of other systems essential for flight. The chance that this was accidental is near zero; both moving the throttle and activating fire suppression systems are impossible to do without considerable, deliberate effort. Had the on-duty crew not rapidly physically engaged the hijacker in a vigorous manner, this incident could have had a different outcome. Fortunately, both pilots were able to regain control of the aircraft, and safely divert to PDX.
Very few details (such as the motive for the attack) are likely to emerge following this incident, due to national security concerns. As the attacker was an approved person who was properly vetted and authorized, there is likely very little that can be done to prevent this from happening again. Though due to the unique nature of the attack, this is likely an isolated incident.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 24, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233024Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230024Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL RAMPS UP BOMBING CAMPAIGN OF GAZA. US CONTINUES TO INCREASE POSTURE IN THE REGION.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel has been observed to increase bombing campaign along the entire Gaza border. Israel continues bombing in the West Bank, and in Lebanon and Syria. Hamas and Hezbollah continue sporadic rocket attacks, targeting locations deep inside Israel. Clearance operations are reportedly underway in Jenin, West Bank. Israel has rejected all calls by the UN for a ceasefire, and has vowed to achieve the “total destruction” of Hamas.
CENTCOM confirms that so far two dozen US military personnel have been wounded in attacks on US military bases in the Middle East over the past few weeks. US DoS rhetoric indicates a potential mass evacuation campaign of USPER in the region.
South America: Tensions flare between Venezuela and Guyana following a long-standing territorial dispute regarding mineral rights. Diplomats on both sides have warned their counterparts not to escalate the situation. However, the announcement of a public referendum in Venezuela on this issue (scheduled for December) has increased tensions in the region.
-HomeFront-
USA: Domestic politics remain tense following recent developments regarding the legal targeting of Trump associates, as well as citizens associated with the J6 event.
-Analyst Comments-
The DoS rhetoric of concern for the potential evacuation of over 600,000 Americans from the Middle East region is perplexing, as the logistical constraints alone make this an impossible feat. The presence of 2x CSGs and at least 1x MEU in the area or on the way, with potentially more amphibious capability available in the CENTCOM AOR is concerning, and hints of the US entering the conflict directly. US political rhetoric concerning Iran remains alarming, as US politicians continue to directly and openly call for war.
Tensions are mounting between Israel and the UN as Israeli forces continue to target Gaza, and by default, UN aid efforts. UN forces on the ground are urging fuel deliveries to be allowed in through the Rafah border crossing, in order to continue running generators for humanitarian work. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has stated that the attacks by Hamas did not “occur in a vacuum”, implying the well-documented history of the conflict in the region. This has prompted Israel to call for his dismissal.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 25, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233025Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230025Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL ALLEGEDLY DELAYS INVASION OF GAZA. POLITICAL TURMOIL CONTINUES IN THE US.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel reports delaying the invasion of Gaza, reportedly due to US requests. The US allegedly wants to move more assets into the region, before the conflict expands substantially.
Egyptian state television reports have impressed the combat readiness of Egyptian troops, stating that Egypt is ready for an escalation.
In the White House, dissention becomes more prevalent among government workers. Many of which are Jewish, and many of which support Palestine. This has reportedly caused behavioral issues and internal conflict among staff members, particularly in the DoS. As a result, DoS leadership has been hosting “listening sessions” with Muslim and Jewish employees as staffers from both sides lobby to influence DoS policy in their favor.
-HomeFront-
USA: Details emerge regarding the attempted hijacking of AS2059 indicating the hijacker was under the extreme influence of psychedelic mushrooms and was experiencing a psychological episode. This allegedly caused him to react unexpectedly, which resulted in him attempting to bring the plane down.
In Congress, Rep. Mike Johnson elected Speaker of the House. Johnson has stated that his first official action will be to introduce a resolution in support of Israel.
Donald Trump’s trial continues as he is fined $10,000 for allegedly violating a gag order that forbid him from showing photographic evidence of the conflict of interest arising from the judge presiding his current case employing a law clerk that has an intimate relationship with Sen. Chuck Schumer. AC: As a reminder, this is a civil trial, not criminal.
-Analyst Comments-
The psychological episode experienced on AS2059 is unusual, but highlights the vulnerabilities within supposedly secure institutions responsible for airline travel. As years of medical persecution have thinned the number of commercial airline pilots to alarmingly low numbers, incidents will likely continue to happen as the “bar is lowered” for critical jobs such as pilots, military service members, medical professionals, etc.
In the Middle East, the low trustworthiness of all parties involved in the Israeli conflict mean that the delay of the Gaza invasion could be for any number of reasons. As the element of surprise is nonexistent, and Palestinians have been expecting an Israeli invasion of this magnitude for decades, there is very little deception that Israel can use in order to reduce the combat effectiveness of Hamas fighters. The small size of the combat zone will almost certainly result in some of the most intense fighting seen in decades. Israeli, American, and NATO forces will likely be facing a multi-front war in which none of the players from the West currently have the hardware or the willing troops to wage war with. This has already resulted in some of the most substantial Information Operations conducted since 2019.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 26, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233026Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230026Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES LIMITED CLEARANCE OPERATIONS AS ROCKET ATTACKS INTENSIFY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Rocket attacks by Hamas intensify today as the Israeli bombing/shelling campaign in Gaza continues. Conflicting reports indicate possibly multiple MANPAD attacks on Israeli aircraft, with no success so far. No word on when the official invasion is set to begin, though Netanyahu has stated that the date has been set.
Russia: AFRF conduct the first major series of exercises testing nuclear response following the Russian Duma’s vote to de-ratify Russia’s commitment to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) earlier this month.
-HomeFront-
USA: Mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine leaves 18 dead and many more wounded. The only details regarding the suspect originate from LE officials. The suspect has been identified as SFC. Robert Card, USAR. According to LE officials, Card has a history of mental issues. He was recently taken for mental treatment following concerns among his reserve unit. The suspect remains at large and is considered armed and dangerous.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel may be attempting to test Hamas positions, and get a feel for the urban combat before the grand campaign begins. Israeli “probing attacks” into Gaza may also actually be a main assault, rather than recon-by-fire or some other skirmish. If this is plausible, when Israeli forces encounter suborn resistance, they can withdraw, regroup, and claim they never invaded in the first place, and that the real invasion is yet to come. Several attacks, and subsequent withdrawals have been observed in Gaza over the past few days, adding credence to this theory. Israeli politicians continuing to stress the long-term nature of this war may also by default add weight to this theory. On the other side of the wire, Hamas likely is suffering losses from Israeli strikes, but exactly how many losses is impossible for anyone to know.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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