RR The Wire 1630Z October 11, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163011Z OCT 23
ICOD: 153011Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES TARGETS IN SYRIA AND LEBANON. FINLAND DETECTS UNDERSEA PIPELINE ATTACK.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: IDF makes final preparations for Gaza invasion. Israel strikes targets in Lebanon as Hezbollah militants conduct limited skirmishes along the border. Israel strikes targets in Syria in response to alleged mortar fire originating IVO Quneitra. IDF begins Naval bombardment and airstrikes of Egypt/Gaza Rafah border crossing after ordering noncombatants in Gaza to flee to Egypt via same crossing. Evidence begins to mount indicating the use of White Phosphorous rounds by IDF on Gaza. Various Palestinian-aligned splinter groups make preparations for operations around the world, increasing threatening rhetoric, particularly in the US and Europe.
US CSG-12 arrives O/S, Eastern Med. 101st ABN reportedly preparing to deploy to Jordan. Various US SOF units already deployed to Israel. HMS Prince of Wales CSG departs Norfolk, Virginia, possibly also to deploy to the Med at a later date.
European Front: Clashes erupt at protests as conflict escalates in the Middle East. The US sends additional $200 million to Ukraine.
Baltic Front: Finland alleges deliberate pipeline sabotage after detecting pressure drop in the Baltic-Connector pipeline on Sunday. This pipeline transports LNG between Finland and Estonia.
Balkan Front: Bosnian nationalists rally in Sarajevo to support Palestine on the eve of high tensions in the region. Before the Israeli war, tensions between Bosnia/Kosovo flared, resulting in border clashes that injured demonstrators.
-The Home Front-
USA: California creates and implements Ebony Alert, a dedicated Amber Alert for missing Black children. This is the first emergency service to prioritize response based on race. US House report indicates 99% of illegal immigrants encountered since 2021 have not been deported, and contact has been lost with the overwhelming majority.
-Analyst Comments-
Information warfare abounds following various atrocities of war, many of which cannot independently be verified. Caution must be exercised in the information space as all sides in the current conflict have long histories of narrative shaping. Outside the immediate warzone, tensions will continue to grow as both sides demonize any attempt at neutrality. Many US politicians and pundits have shared uncorroborated stories, old videos, and completely false information on social media, with no concern for verifying most of the information they are repeating. Due to the Illusory Truth Effect, it will become increasingly difficult to discern the truth as time goes on.
Extremely serious and concerning rhetoric runs rampant on social media; everything from chemical to nuclear weapons has been openly discussed by high ranking political officials on all sides of the conflict. The question remains as to how much of this rhetoric will be backed up with action. The use of White Phosphorus munitions by IDF is highly likely, as video evidence all but confirms this munition’s use. However, genuine video evidence has been mixed with old videos from the Syrian War, further weaponizing the use of information in this conlict.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1600Z October 12, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 160012Z OCT 23
ICOD: 150012Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES DAMASCUS AND ALEPPO. PALESTINE DECLARES OCTOBER 13 GLOBAL DAY OF JIHAD.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel expands conflict by conducting pre-emptive strikes in the heart of Syria, with IDF officials confirming futures strikes to take place over the next few days. The Damascus and Aleppo airports were taken out of action in the strikes. Israel continues bombing campaign of Gaza with the goal of total annihilation as described by IDF officials. IDF officials have vowed to turn Gaza into a “tent city”, with no structure left standing. Israeli strikes in Lebanon continue as harassing fires originate from border skirmishes. Various Lebanese Hezbollah subgroups have declared a general mobilization. Thousands of Egyptian Bedouin fighters stage on the Egyptian border with Gaza with the intent to join the war. Iranian IRGC ground forces reportedly making movement toward Iraq border.
Palestine declares Global Day of Jihad scheduled for Friday, Oct 13th. Many claims of demonstrations and more violent actions are planned to reach a zenith tomorrow, as users on social media announce planned demonstrations in most US cities as well as throughout Europe.
US CSG-12 remains O/S, Eastern Med. 101st ABN preparing for mobilization, allegedly to a remote FOB in Israel. NFI ATT. HMS Queen Elizabeth CSG making preparations for possible deployment to the Middle East.
US State Department reaffirms standard policy of charging fees for rescue flights. DoS will offer emergency evacuation plan for Americans stranded in Israel, but will only rescue citizens if they sign a promissory note obligating citizens to repay rescue costs. Despite common thought to the contrary, this is a standard DoS policy.
-HomeFront-
USA: Online rhetoric and threats of violence peak in anticipation of the Global Day of Jihad tomorrow. Demonstrations in support of Palestine are planned for most major US cities.
-Analyst Comments-
Despite many claims of atrocities being walked back as no evidence surfaces, truth is no longer able to stop this war from escalating.
Based on the public rhetoric of IDF officials, and Israel’s military actions so far, there is zero chance of proportional response. The lines are beginning to blur between what Israel considers to be HAMAS, and the Palestinian population. Based on IDF officials’ statements so far, it is highly likely that Israel intends to totally eradicate every Palestinian from Gaza. Talks are allegedly already underway with Egypt (and other nations) to take in the survivors/refugees that remain.
Palestinian threats of a Global Day of Jihad are genuine, and intertwine civil-disruption operations with more deliberate terror attempts. As such any and all demonstrations remain high-risk events. Heightened situational awareness is strongly recommended over the next few days as the risk of lone-wolf attacks (or even sleeper cell activations) is increased. Due to American support to Israel, attacks on American citizens abroad are highly likely, as are random attacks within the United States. There is no specific evidence of more coordinated attacks on the horizon, though as this operation was clearly being planned for at least a year, more sophisticated terror attacks on the homefront are a possibility.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z October 13, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213013Z OCT 23
ICOD: 203013Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS GROUND COMBAT OPERATIONS AS INVASION OF GAZA IS IMMINENT. IDF ORDERS EVAC OF CIVILIANS IN GAZA. DAY OF JIHAD RESULTS IN FEW ISOLATED ATTACKS.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel orders the total evacuation of Gaza north of the Wadi Gaza, which roughly divides Gaza in half. The UN urges Israel to rescind the order, as less than 24 hours has been given to evacuate over 1.1 million people. The UN states that it is “impossible” to evacuate everyone by the deadline. Nevertheless, Israel has begun limited ground combat operations on the outskirts of Gaza. Limited skirmishes have begun in West Bank and the Golan Heights as well.
The Lebanese Army has allegedly begun shelling targets in northern Israel. NFI ATT.
Strategic military movements are being reported in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, and Turkey, but due to lack of corroborating information and unreliable sources little intelligence can be gained ATT regarding the strategic moves being made throughout the Arab world.
US CSG-12 remains O/S Eastern Med. CSG-2 steaming into the Mediterranean Sea. US deploys B-1B LANCER assets from 7th Bomb Wing to U.K. amid growing tensions.
Terror Attack Update: Isolated lone-wolf style stabbing attacks occur in France and China. More substantial attacks have not yet materialized as of the publication of this report.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestinian demonstrations continue in most major US cities, with minor clashes reported as Pro-Israeli protestors join the fray.
-Analyst Comments-
In retrospect, the short notice offered by the declaration of Global Jihad probably limited the number of attacks that could have been carried out with any success. However, now that the ultimatum has been issued, the threat of domestic attacks is not limited to a single day. Israeli offensives into Gaza will likely be a flashpoint for genuine attacks and false flag operations alike, encouraging enhanced vigilance as tensions in the Middle East remain high.
Israeli forces are likely making final preparations for a ground offensive, which may begin in earnest within the next 24-48 hours. Limited ground clearance operations have been conducted along the Gaza border, but the main offensive thrust is likely to occur after a final artillery barrage/bombing campaign along the Gaza front lines.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z October 14, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213014Z OCT 23
ICOD: 210014Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: EGYPT BEGINS ALLOWING FOREIGN NATIONAL EVAC FROM GAZA. ISRAEL CONTINUES AIR CAMPAIGN IN GAZA.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues aerial bombing campaign of Gaza. Large scale ground operation has not yet begun, and the US has urged Israel to postpone the ground invasion as noncombatants largely have not been evacuated. Egypt begins allowing foreign nationals to exit Gaza via the Rafah border crossing.
US continues deployment preparations for the evacuation of noncombatants in Gaza, though details are minimal at this stage. In Israel, US DoS begins the evacuation of non-essential US personnel from diplomatic posts. Correction to previous Wire: CSG-2 is not yet in the Mediterranean Sea, only having departed Norfolk this morning after a delay. This battle group will likely be observed transiting Gibraltar in approximately 10 days. CSG-12 remains O/S Eastern Med.
European Front: Demonstrations continue in support of Palestine in many major European cities, despite many nations declaring public support for Palestine to be illegal under recently passed terrorism laws. Russian diplomat Nikolai Kobrinets found dead in Turkey following possible heart attack in his hotel room. NFI ATT.
-HomeFront-
USA: Lake City Ammunition plant to halt all commercial ammo sales in response to “overseas events” which will result in higher demand via military contracts. Explosion at Hornady plant in Grand Island, Nebraska kills one worker and injures several.

-Analyst Comments-
Information warfare continues to be a persistent threat, especially within the combat zone. Israeli officials continue to order a southern evacuation route from Gaza using the Beach Road and Salah Eddine Road, while also conducting airstrikes on these roads. Consequently, Hamas militants use these strikes to push the narrative that the IDF will strike any fleeing civilians, and staying put is the better option. As always, the truth is likely in the grey area between these two positions. Israel has been observed to target civilians, hospitals, and humanitarian activities with little regard for Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS). Many UN employees and international aid workers have been killed in these strikes. On the other hand, HAMAS has a long history of using civilian locations and structures for military purposes, further blurring the lines between civilians and militants.
Public statements by diplomats are more clear. Israeli President Isaac Herzog has outlined the Israeli position strongly indicating that Israel considers Palestine and HAMAS to be one and the same. This strongly indicates Israel’s intention to remove the entirety of Palestine from Gaza.
As the ground invasion seems imminent, we must remember the political complications of the region which inhibit accurate information reporting. There is no land on Earth more politically charged than this region, even simple road maps are highly controversial. Over the past few decades, Israeli settlements have encroached into terrain that the international community generally recognizes as Gaza. As such, Israeli tanks are both on the border of Gaza, and already inside Gaza, depending on diplomatic perspective. This creates challenges as to where combat actions are taking place, as both sides usually refer to the same location with two different names.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 16, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233016Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230016Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: EGYPT STAGES HUMANITARIAN AID ON GAZA BORDER. SITUATION IN ISRAEL REMAINS TENSE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: So far, humanitarian aid has largely not been allowed to cross the Rafah border crossing into Gaza, as peace talks have failed to implement a humanitarian ceasefire.
USS Herschel “Woody” Williams (ESB 4) begins steaming North from the Western Coast of Africa following routine exercises. As of Oct 01, her new homeport is NSA Souda Bay, Greece. AC: This is a newer class of vessel that functions as an Expeditionary Sea Base. Quietly sending her back to her home port in Greece would be a strategically useful move to bolster US Naval assets in the region.
Europe: In Belgium, Islamic terrorist fires into a crowd in Brussels, killing two Swedish citizens and injuring many others. After pledging allegiance to ISIS in the livestream of the attack, the suspect remains at large and is considered armed and dangerous.
-HomeFront-
USA: Coal train derails in Pueblo, CO as it traversed a bridge over I-25. The driver of a cargo truck was killed in the bridge collapse. The NTSB is currently investigating the incident. Another train derails in Mitchell, S.D. causing minor spill of grain according to local media.
Illinois: A 71 year old man stabs a Palestinian woman and her 6 year old son in Plainsfield. The boy died of his wounds at a local hospital. Local police confirm this to be a terror attack/hate crime.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel has cut internet access to Gaza, so what may appear to be a lull in the fighting may simply be survivorship bias as few internet sources remain available for information to get out of the conflict zone. From Israeli media, the bombing/shelling of Gaza, West Bank, and the Golan Heights continues. Limited strikes also are periodically being conducted in the border regions of Lebanon and Syria as well. The airports in Damascus and Aleppo continue to be struck regularly by Israel according to local sources. Hamas rocket attacks have waned in the past few days, but still sporadically target Israeli cities.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN

RR The Wire 2330Z October 17, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233017Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230017Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: TENSIONS FLARE IN GAZA AFTER STRIKE ON HOSPITAL. UNREST SPREADS THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Developing information indicates the Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza was struck with a large munition. The hospital had failed to be evacuated, and was filled to capacity with wounded from earlier strikes. Initial reports indicate the casualty count may be in the hundreds. Who conducted the strike is uncertain ATT. Palestinian authorities claim it was an Israeli airstrike, and Israel claims it was a failed HAMAS missile strike that missed its target.
Immediately following the strike, demonstrations erupted throughout the Arab world. Many Arab nations have declared tomorrow to be a day of mourning for the victims of the strike. Extremely tense demonstrations are being reported throughout most of the Middle East. In Jordan, a riot broke out at the Israeli Embassy as demonstrators breached the compound and set it on fire. Clashes were also reported at the Israeli Embassy in Turkey. Kuwait has ordered its citizens to leave Lebanon. Israel orders citizens to leave Turkey, and citizens in Morocco to be on alert for attacks.
Russia and UAE have requested an emergency meeting of the UNSC tomorrow morning.
President Biden plans visit to the conflict zone as other European heads of state also head to the region.
-HomeFront-
USA: Biden reportedly plans to ask Congress for a $100 billion aid package for Ukraine.
-Analyst Comments-
Regardless of the culprit of the Gaza Hospital Strike, this incident has been yet another spark threatening to expand the Gaza conflagration into a substantial region-wide conflict. Many nation-states are recalling their citizens from adversarial nations as battle lines solidify. Extremely kinetic riots have broken out all over the Middle East, causing mass confusion.
As foreign leaders pour into Israel for diplomatic talks, politicians who seek to travel to Israel for a simple photo op may find themselves in a truly kinetic situation that a small security team cannot handle. German Chancelor Scholz was involved in a combat engagement earlier today, as his plane came under fire at Ben Gurion Airport, causing him and his security detail to seek shelter from a rocket attack on the bare tarmac. Various other politicians have had similar close-calls since the start of this conflict.
Tensions will remain high as world leaders attempt to solve the question of Palestinian refugees. Jordanian King Abdullah II has issued his “red line” that no Palestinians will be accepted into Jordan or Egypt.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 18, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233018Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230018Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH FOLLOWING GAZA HOSPITAL INCIDENT. RUSSIA INCREASES PRESENSE PATROLS IN BLACK SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Israeli state media announces that all preparations for the ground invasion of Gaza are complete.
Situation regarding the Gaza Hospital strike remains unclear as information warfare takes center stage. Debate continues as to whether the strike was indeed an Israeli airstrike, or a failed HAMAS rocket attack. Various Arab States continue to issue travel advisories and recall notices for their citizens abroad. Demonstrations throughout the Middle East continue to be extremely kinetic, as tensions remain high throughout the region.
Russia: President Putin gives the order for persistent CAP to begin in the neutral airspace over the Black Sea. In a televised address, Putin specifically mentioned that the MiG-31K aircraft will be armed with Kh-47M2 KINZHAL (NATO: AS-24 KILLJOY) missiles. These are Russia’s newest hypersonic ballistic missiles that, in his speech, Putin specifically mentioned would be within range of the American CSG’s in the Mediterranean Sea.
-HomeFront-
USA: Biden to address the nation at 2000R tomorrow evening.
-Analyst Comments-
Follow on information regarding the Gaza Hospital strike, has not resulted in the confirmation of anything; we’re not entirely certain a strike was even conducted on the physical hospital building. Mountains of evidence exist to prove any narrative; but sifting through the fake photos/videos will take some time to increase analytical certainty as to what happened. Regardless of the truth, the Arab world is outraged and based on the statements of regional leaders, there is very little distinction between an airstrike and a failed missile launch. In the absence of forensic evidence, many Arab leaders consider the attack to be Israel’s fault even if it was a HAMAS rocket, as HAMAS would not have conducted the attack without Israeli attacks on Palestine. However flawed this logic may be, this appears to be the narrative playing out in many public statements by foreign pundits/leaders, as well as online chatter surrounding the incident. Consequently, it is already too late for truth to result in restraint…on either side. Demonstrations will likely continue, and increase in severity as the Israeli ground offensive begins.
Vladimir Putin’s casual reference to American aircraft carriers being within range of hypersonic missiles may seem to be alarming, but is almost certainly Putin’s classic way of warning the west. American CSGs can be targeted in any number of ways, much less by aircraft that will have to fly over NATO airspace (Turkey) to cause trouble. However, this reference does indicate the opposition to US presence in the Med. As the US continues nearly persistent cargo flights into Israel, and MSM reports reference potentially thousands of US troops becoming involved in some way with this conflict, these actions will be perceived as US aggression in the region. On the diplomatic front, atmospherics indicate the US has taken a back seat. US officials have been kept waiting by foreign leaders, or meetings with American politicians have been canceled outright. Other interactions between US officials and Arab leaders have been lukewarm at best. As Israel begins the ground operation in Gaza, the potential for flashpoints to occur is extremely high which may cause problems not just on the diplomatic front, but at home as well.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 19, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233019Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230019Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL INVASION OF GAZA IMMINENT. US INVOLVEMENT IN THE CONFLICT DEEPENS AS ATTACKS CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: After much delay, the Israeli invasion of Gaza appears to be on the horizon. Attacks are beginning to involve US military presence throughout the region, with rocket and drone attacks being reported at the Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq. Missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen were also intercepted by the USS Carney (DDG 64), currently underway in the Red Sea.
Europe: Multiple terror attacks/incidents have been occurring constantly since the beginning of the Israeli-HAMAS War. Stabbing incidents appear to be the most common attack vector, continuing the trend from the past few years.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations and riots continue in most major US cities. Hundreds of rioters were arrested at the US Capitol following a rally in support of Palestine. The DoS has issued a global travel warning, urging Americans on the entire planet to use Caution and be alert for attacks.
-Analyst Comments-
The Israeli invasion of Gaza is behind schedule by American standards…if that operation were to be a quick and limited campaign. LSCOs take time, even if the combat zone is only 140 sq mi. The preparation time needed by Israeli forces strongly indicates Israel does not believe this will be a quick war, and that the IDF was not prepared for this operation or a total mobilization. The latter idea is supported by Israeli politicians who have been openly stating that this will not be a quick operation. Other rhetoric from Israeli sources indicates that an annexation of Gaza is guaranteed, but how much of Gaza is to be taken by Israel is not yet determined. External actors (and international politics) will probably be the deciding factor.
On the diplomatic front, developing reports that the US has given “the green light” to an Israeli invasion of Gaza are extremely alarming. If these reports are true, and taking all factors into account, the US has done nothing to ease tensions in the region, and have openly been advocating for expanding this conflict. In Congress, various politicians continue to openly call for war with Iran, and other nations. This alone makes the proposals and efforts by Russia and China look reasonable by comparison. The irony of these two nations being the voices of peace in the UN is palpable, and will paint the US into a diplomatic corner as US foreign policy remains stagnant.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 20, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233020Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230020Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: US AGAIN ATTEMPTS TO DELAY ISRAELI INVASION OF GAZA. STRATEGIC MANEUVERING CONTINUES ON ALL SIDES AS PREPARATIONS FOR WAR CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Following Israeli statements that the IDF are ready for an invasion of Gaza, the US DoS is reportedly working to delay the campaign. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman proposes the creation of a Palestinian state, based on the 1967 borders.
Various militant groups continue to amass on the Syrian/Israeli border. The composition and disposition of these forces is not clear and extremely variable as many independent Islamic groups/tribes prepare for a more region-wide conflict.
Europe: General unrest remains following events in the Middle East. Various attacks are being reported throughout Europe but it is unclear as to if these attacks are deliberate terror attacks that remain unreported, or if they are more representative of general crime.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations and riots continue regularly throughout the US. So far, demonstrations have exhibited the standard volatility expected by today’s standards. More substantial/kinetic demonstrations are likely as flashpoints are reached in the Middle East. US politics remains in turmoil as Congress remains stagnant on a choice of House Speaker.
-Analyst Comments-
In the Middle East, all concerned parties are trading space, for time. Efforts are being undertaken by Israeli officials to shift expectations of what the invasion might look like. The US is attempting to delay the invasion so as to give military sources time to secure the release of more hostages. Israel, demonstrating extreme concerns with what is certain to be a largely counterinsurgency war, most of which will be fought underground, is attempting to bombard Gaza sufficiently before the ground operation begins. Netanyahu, who before this crisis was on the brink of experiencing a Civil War of his own, is unlikely to politically withstand anything less than a total initial invasion of Gaza, and at least a partial annexation of Gaza territory.
Most Arab nations (and a few European states) are concerned with the conflict expanding into Lebanon and beyond, and as such have taken precautions to improve their own readiness. A grand bluff is developing as Iran exerts influence throughout the region, and strengthen ties with Russia.
Around the world, care must be taken to accurately portray terror threats. MSM sources tend to underreport terror attacks that do not fit their chosen narrative, but amplify attacks that sensationalize violence. Consequently, determining the reasoning behind an attack is very difficult; discerning between regular street violence and a coordinated attack is not easy. Accusations are rampant that some jurisdictions are concealing the nature of attacks, in order to downplay the terror threat. Due to the nature of these atmospherics, none of these accusations can be verified without legal testimony, which is rarely given. However, constant vigilance is recommended as uncertainty regarding the impending actions in the Middle East result in increased potential for hostile actions here at home.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 21, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233021Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230021Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES TO MANDATE EVAC OF NORTHERN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli forces continue to drop leaflets urging a total evacuation of northern Gaza. Leaflets indicate that Israel will likely consider any person north of Wadi Gaza to be a threat. Israeli officials express concern with what is likely to become the Northern Front upon the invasion of Gaza. Local reports indicate small convoys carrying humanitarian aid have crossed the Rafah border crossing, with the Red Crescent taking the lead in distribution of aid resources. How much aid has been distributed is not currently known.
Saudi/Iranian relations deepen following talks to impose sanctions on Israel. Sporadic drone attacks continue to target US military bases throughout the Middle East.
Europe: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue to grow in size and severity. In London today, over 100,000 protestors rallied to show support for Palestine.
-HomeFront-
USA: POL markets tighten as uncertainty in the Middle East impacts crude prices. Perhaps more significantly, OPEC members continue to cut production by 1.3 million BPD. Border Crisis: The US reports a total of 2.47 million encounters for FY 2023, which is the highest number of illegals encountered since records began.
-Analyst Comments-
While the world awaits Israel’s next move, the Arab world is making moves of their own. Saudi Arabia and Iran, two nations which have historically had an icy relationship have experienced a thawing of tensions. Though no confirmation can be obtained, reportedly the IRGC Quds Force commander, BG Ismail Qa'ani has arrived in western Syria to coordinate the various pro-Iranian militant groups staged on the Israeli border. Though the veracity of this reporting cannot be judged, this would be another sign of preparations being made with the expectation of this conflict rapidly expanding.
From the nation-state level, down to individual tribes, it is possible that many Islamic groups are putting aside their differences for the time being in order to focus on a common enemy: Israel and the nations that support her. These factors will play a role in everything from economics to general street violence as groups align with their historic allies, and even forge new temporary alliances as well.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 23, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233023Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230023Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ALASKA AIRLINES EXPERIENCES ATTEMPTED HIJACKING. CONFLICT CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Rocket and Drone attacks on US military bases in the Middle East increase in frequency following increased tensions in the region. In Israel, the main offensive thrust into Gaza has not yet begun. Sporadic rocket attacks continue from Gaza as Israeli forces conduct limited clearance operations in some districts on the Gaza border.
Substantial advertising campaigns are observed to be spreading regarding Western support for Israel. Children’s content on various media platforms has been specifically targeted by ads encouraging support for Israel.
South Africa: Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) leader Julius Malema increases hostile rhetoric, declaring EFF support to Palestine. AC: The situation in South Africa has been tense for many months following Malema’s calls for the murder of white farmers, but rhetoric has increased in severity following the conflict in the Middle East. EFF rallies in support of Palestine continue to be held in Pretoria.
-HomeFront-
USA: Tyson Foods announces major investment in Protix, a company dedicated to insect production. Reports indicate Protix intends to build an insect processing facility in the US with the goal of providing insect-based materials intended for human consumption. It is not clear as to how much Tyson has invested in this company.
Terrorism Update: Horizon Flight 2059 (flying for Alaska Airlines) experiences attempted hijacking after an authorized jumpseat passenger attempts to shut down the engines mid-flight. The assailant also deployed engine fire suppression systems in an apparent attempt to bring the aircraft down. The two pilots flying the aircraft subdued the hijacker and landed safely. Details are vague at best, but officials state that the hijacker was an off-duty pilot who was properly authorized to fly in the jumpseat, as is standard practice on most airlines.
-Analyst Comments-
The attempted hijacking of AS2059 is significant as the attack was undertaken by an approved person. Based on the publicly available details following the incident, this was likely a very deliberate hijacking attempt. As the attacker likely could not reach the yoke, the attacker knew that the highest chance for success lay with shutting down the engines, and pulling the fire suppression T-handles. Both of which are reachable by someone standing behind the pilots on the Embraer E-175. This action would have resulted in shutting off hydraulics, fuel flow, and a number of other systems essential for flight. The chance that this was accidental is near zero; both moving the throttle and activating fire suppression systems are impossible to do without considerable, deliberate effort. Had the on-duty crew not rapidly physically engaged the hijacker in a vigorous manner, this incident could have had a different outcome. Fortunately, both pilots were able to regain control of the aircraft, and safely divert to PDX.
Very few details (such as the motive for the attack) are likely to emerge following this incident, due to national security concerns. As the attacker was an approved person who was properly vetted and authorized, there is likely very little that can be done to prevent this from happening again. Though due to the unique nature of the attack, this is likely an isolated incident.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 24, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233024Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230024Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL RAMPS UP BOMBING CAMPAIGN OF GAZA. US CONTINUES TO INCREASE POSTURE IN THE REGION.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel has been observed to increase bombing campaign along the entire Gaza border. Israel continues bombing in the West Bank, and in Lebanon and Syria. Hamas and Hezbollah continue sporadic rocket attacks, targeting locations deep inside Israel. Clearance operations are reportedly underway in Jenin, West Bank. Israel has rejected all calls by the UN for a ceasefire, and has vowed to achieve the “total destruction” of Hamas.
CENTCOM confirms that so far two dozen US military personnel have been wounded in attacks on US military bases in the Middle East over the past few weeks. US DoS rhetoric indicates a potential mass evacuation campaign of USPER in the region.
South America: Tensions flare between Venezuela and Guyana following a long-standing territorial dispute regarding mineral rights. Diplomats on both sides have warned their counterparts not to escalate the situation. However, the announcement of a public referendum in Venezuela on this issue (scheduled for December) has increased tensions in the region.
-HomeFront-
USA: Domestic politics remain tense following recent developments regarding the legal targeting of Trump associates, as well as citizens associated with the J6 event.
-Analyst Comments-
The DoS rhetoric of concern for the potential evacuation of over 600,000 Americans from the Middle East region is perplexing, as the logistical constraints alone make this an impossible feat. The presence of 2x CSGs and at least 1x MEU in the area or on the way, with potentially more amphibious capability available in the CENTCOM AOR is concerning, and hints of the US entering the conflict directly. US political rhetoric concerning Iran remains alarming, as US politicians continue to directly and openly call for war.
Tensions are mounting between Israel and the UN as Israeli forces continue to target Gaza, and by default, UN aid efforts. UN forces on the ground are urging fuel deliveries to be allowed in through the Rafah border crossing, in order to continue running generators for humanitarian work. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has stated that the attacks by Hamas did not “occur in a vacuum”, implying the well-documented history of the conflict in the region. This has prompted Israel to call for his dismissal.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 25, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233025Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230025Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL ALLEGEDLY DELAYS INVASION OF GAZA. POLITICAL TURMOIL CONTINUES IN THE US.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel reports delaying the invasion of Gaza, reportedly due to US requests. The US allegedly wants to move more assets into the region, before the conflict expands substantially.
Egyptian state television reports have impressed the combat readiness of Egyptian troops, stating that Egypt is ready for an escalation.
In the White House, dissention becomes more prevalent among government workers. Many of which are Jewish, and many of which support Palestine. This has reportedly caused behavioral issues and internal conflict among staff members, particularly in the DoS. As a result, DoS leadership has been hosting “listening sessions” with Muslim and Jewish employees as staffers from both sides lobby to influence DoS policy in their favor.
-HomeFront-
USA: Details emerge regarding the attempted hijacking of AS2059 indicating the hijacker was under the extreme influence of psychedelic mushrooms and was experiencing a psychological episode. This allegedly caused him to react unexpectedly, which resulted in him attempting to bring the plane down.
In Congress, Rep. Mike Johnson elected Speaker of the House. Johnson has stated that his first official action will be to introduce a resolution in support of Israel.
Donald Trump’s trial continues as he is fined $10,000 for allegedly violating a gag order that forbid him from showing photographic evidence of the conflict of interest arising from the judge presiding his current case employing a law clerk that has an intimate relationship with Sen. Chuck Schumer. AC: As a reminder, this is a civil trial, not criminal.
-Analyst Comments-
The psychological episode experienced on AS2059 is unusual, but highlights the vulnerabilities within supposedly secure institutions responsible for airline travel. As years of medical persecution have thinned the number of commercial airline pilots to alarmingly low numbers, incidents will likely continue to happen as the “bar is lowered” for critical jobs such as pilots, military service members, medical professionals, etc.
In the Middle East, the low trustworthiness of all parties involved in the Israeli conflict mean that the delay of the Gaza invasion could be for any number of reasons. As the element of surprise is nonexistent, and Palestinians have been expecting an Israeli invasion of this magnitude for decades, there is very little deception that Israel can use in order to reduce the combat effectiveness of Hamas fighters. The small size of the combat zone will almost certainly result in some of the most intense fighting seen in decades. Israeli, American, and NATO forces will likely be facing a multi-front war in which none of the players from the West currently have the hardware or the willing troops to wage war with. This has already resulted in some of the most substantial Information Operations conducted since 2019.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 26, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233026Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230026Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES LIMITED CLEARANCE OPERATIONS AS ROCKET ATTACKS INTENSIFY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Rocket attacks by Hamas intensify today as the Israeli bombing/shelling campaign in Gaza continues. Conflicting reports indicate possibly multiple MANPAD attacks on Israeli aircraft, with no success so far. No word on when the official invasion is set to begin, though Netanyahu has stated that the date has been set.
Russia: AFRF conduct the first major series of exercises testing nuclear response following the Russian Duma’s vote to de-ratify Russia’s commitment to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) earlier this month.
-HomeFront-
USA: Mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine leaves 18 dead and many more wounded. The only details regarding the suspect originate from LE officials. The suspect has been identified as SFC. Robert Card, USAR. According to LE officials, Card has a history of mental issues. He was recently taken for mental treatment following concerns among his reserve unit. The suspect remains at large and is considered armed and dangerous.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel may be attempting to test Hamas positions, and get a feel for the urban combat before the grand campaign begins. Israeli “probing attacks” into Gaza may also actually be a main assault, rather than recon-by-fire or some other skirmish. If this is plausible, when Israeli forces encounter suborn resistance, they can withdraw, regroup, and claim they never invaded in the first place, and that the real invasion is yet to come. Several attacks, and subsequent withdrawals have been observed in Gaza over the past few days, adding credence to this theory. Israeli politicians continuing to stress the long-term nature of this war may also by default add weight to this theory. On the other side of the wire, Hamas likely is suffering losses from Israeli strikes, but exactly how many losses is impossible for anyone to know.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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PP The Wire 2000Z October 27, 2023

PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 200027Z OCT 23
ICOD: 193027Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: THE ISRAELI INVASION OF GAZA HAS BEGUN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Intense bombardment of Gaza continues as Israeli armor is observed breaking through into northern Gaza. Conflict has broken out all along the Gaza border line, as well as in the West Bank. Hamas has issued statements that they are engaging Israeli tanks IVO al-Bureij camp.
Insurgent-controlled media claims US military bases in Kharab Al-Jir and at the al-Omar oil field in Syria are currently under attack. No independent verification of these reports can be made at this time.
Yesterday US forces conducted strikes on alleged Iranian proxy groups in Syria that were allegedly responsible for the attacks on US bases over the past few weeks.
-Analyst Comments-
Information regarding the invasion of Gaza will be hard to verify with any certainty. Additionally, most communications in and out of Gaza have been previously severed so very little information is known. Information regarding international strategic moves will be more reliable, but in a time of overwhelming information warfare, every detail is suspect.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1500Z October 28, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 150028Z OCT 23
ICOD: 140028Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAELI ADVANCE MEETS HEAVY RESISTANCE IN NORTHERN GAZA. REGIONAL PLAYERS BEGIN INTENSIFYING CONFLICT.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Information warfare takes center stage as all sides seek to amplify their gains, and downplay losses. Israeli forces have declared they are jamming much of the EM spectrum and spoofing GPS signals, resulting in some of the most significant EW effects seen in years.
Pro-Palestinian fighters have amassed on the Iraq/Jordan border in substantial numbers. Egyptian and Israeli fighter aircraft have reportedly engaged in foreign relations, with pilots using aggressive maneuvers towards each other over the border/waters between the two countries.
In Lebanon, the US Embassy urges all US citizens to immediately leave the country. Similar travel alerts are routinely being established by most European nations regarding much of the Middle East.
The UN General Assembly adopts a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. In response, Israel’s Ambassador states that “the UN holds not even one ounce of legitimacy”.
Vodafone has announced that they are setting up emergency cell towers in Egypt, on the border with Gaza, with the intent to provide data services for those documenting combat actions within Gaza. Elon Musk requests any aid groups in Gaza to make contact with Starlink services, but as of now no ground terminal in Gaza has requested a satellite link.
-HomeFront-
USA: In Maine, Robert Card found dead following extensive search. Details are extremely limited, but he was reportedly found in a dumpster with two GSW to the head. NFI ATT.
-Analyst Comments-
Despite the sparse flow of information, it is possible that the Israeli advance slowed last night shortly after a multi-pronged assault into northern Gaza.
Hamas, claims the advance was halted due to their defensive efforts. Within a few minutes of this announcement, Israeli pundits/influencers claimed the halt in the North was voluntary, and that the “real attack” will occur at a different time and place. After a few hours, IDF officials have claimed that the start of the military operation has not yet been declared. Either way, speed will likely not be a deciding factor in this fight, and though video evidence indicates extremely intense fighting the losses from either side are not known.
None of the claims by either side will likely be verified within time for operational success to practically be gauged. By the time information becomes verified, it is Overcome by Events (OBE) and no longer relevant. What is more clear is that multiple assaults on Gaza are ongoing, and that statements from IDF officials claiming the assault hasn’t begun yet are likely gaslighting attempts intended to save face resulting from losses taken by heavy resistance. Amphibious landings have occurred in the West and armored and infantry advances in the North, East, and South. If this “not-yet-begun” conflict is a feint or a ruse, it is unclear as to where the “real” attack will take place, as Gaza is already being engaged on all fronts.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2300Z October 30, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230030Z OCT 23
ICOD: 223030Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: FEW DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING GAZA GROUND INVASION. ISRAEL CONTINUES TARGETING IN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli invasion of Gaza continues with little information regarding the progress of the advance. Information from the Palestinians has slowed to a crawl following comms blackouts, the lack of electricity, airstrikes, etc. Hamas has allegedly been engaged in significant combat actions in the North, though details from the front are not clear ATT. Hamas rocket attacks have remained fairly constant since the beginning of this war, but have increased in number immediately following substantial Israeli strikes, or strikes on facilities that would ordinarily be considered CAT 1 NSE (hospitals, schools, Mosques, community centers, etc).
This morning, Wikileaks released leaked internal IDF documents that suggest Israel is planning to expel the entire Palestinian population from Gaza, to be resettled in the Egyptian Sinai. Though these documents cannot be independently verified with 100% certainty ATT, these very early reports corroborate earlier analysis that indicates Israel is not seeking to stop at the destruction of Hamas, but is actually invested in the removal of all civilian Palestinians from Gaza.
-HomeFront-
USA: In Maine, the circumstances regarding the death of Robert Card remain unclear. Since the finding of his body, much information in the public sphere has been speculatory. Initial reports that Card suffered two GSW to the head remain unprovable. However, as authorities have total control over evidence Chain of Custody, and since authorities have not released any substantial details at all, MSM reporting remains the only sources for most of the information that is public.
-Analyst Comments-
As the Israeli war in Gaza continues, much of the media coverage has focused on atrocity, with both sides seeking to dominate the information space. As such, knowledge of how military targeting works would be beneficial for making informed decisions.
Per JP 3-60, most western nations that abide by US Targeting doctrine are prohibited from striking hospitals, even if used by enemy forces. The Deliberate Targeting process comprises most of US kinetic targeting, and is a rigid data-centric process to ensure legal military targets are struck in accordance with military law. The Dynamic targeting process is an expedited process to be used mostly in situations of immediate self-defense, but is no less legally binding (and is limited in scope to only the munition required for self-defense). Israel is abiding by neither of these processes, and is striking targets that if held to current US military law, are illegal. Population density and the intricacies of point mensuration to develop Joint Desired Points of Impact (JDPIs) in the urban environment, mean that very few of Israel’s strikes conform to US or NATO law. Considering the US and NATO’s overwhelming support for Israel, and the assembly one of the largest military flotillas in NATO history throughout the region, this is an important factor to remember. Hamas, on the other hand, continues to adhere to an insurgent-style model, and does not possess any significant technology that would result in precision targeting. Hamas’ rocket attacks using unguided munitions, are by definition indiscriminate.

Regarding the Maine shooting and the fate of Robert Card, several MSM reports have quietly changed the headline of “two-GSW to the head” to “self-inflicted GSW”, indicating a quiet retraction of this crucial detail. In any case, the public is unlikely to know the truth of Card’s death, which is unfortunate considering the long trail of evidence suggesting Card’s actions were exceptionally predictable, and that he had previously been under investigation for potentially being a mass shooter. The only fact that remains certain is that Robert Card is deceased, and he was a person of interest with regards to the Maine shooting.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2300Z October 31, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230031Z OCT 23
ICOD: 223031Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: YEMENI ATTACKS ON ISRAEL INTENSIFY. ISRAEL TAKES HEAVY CASUALTIES, MAKES SLOW PROGRESS IN NORTHERN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The first few days of the Israeli invasion of Gaza have resulted in fierce resistance, and slow progress. Video evidence indicates Hamas has regularly and effectively targeted Israeli MBTs, IFVs, and APCs during the advance. Israeli DM Gallant confirms via press conference that IDF has suffered heavy losses, though the exact numbers of casualties/losses is unknown.
Missile attacks from Yemen have increased following the declaration of War issued by the rebel-held government sector. It is difficult to determine the effectiveness (or existence) of many of these extremely long-range attacks; many reports of random missile impacts in Israel have been reported without any indication of a point of origin.
Earlier today, IDF officials claimed responsibility for a substantial airstrike on the Jabalia Refugee Camp in Northern Gaza. IDF officials claim the strike was targeting one Hamas leader, and many civilian casualties have been reported.
Elon Musk’s claims of Starlink support for Gaza backtrack as he claims that Starlink will only be provided for Gaza after investigation and permission from the US and Israel is granted. It is unclear as to if connections and internet traffic will be monitored by Starlink to ensure that their services are only being used for humanitarian purposes. AC: Based on these conditions, in the remote chance someone has Starlink in Gaza, it is extraordinarily unlikely to be allowed to function. For information exchange, infrastructure that does not rely on Israeli or American resources would be the most reliable form of communication in and out of Gaza.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel’s battle plan appears to be centered around an invasion of Northern Gaza on all fronts, followed by a southern push to the Sinai. Whether or not Israel will be able to obtain these goals is unclear, as overwhelming rhetoric from Israeli officials has attempted to temper expectations and prepare for a long campaign. Per long-standing Israeli defense doctrine, Israel is likely expecting long-term logistical support from the US, as the IDF has already expended substantial munitions in this war so far. Per IDF officials the Iron Dome missile supply is running low, resulting in prioritizing defensive coverage of heavily populated areas.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2300Z November 01, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230001Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223001Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES ADVANCE INTO GAZA. CASUALTIES MOUNT ON ALL SIDES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues to take casualties in their advance on Gaza City as Information Operations from both sides obfuscate the situation on the ground. Demonstrations throughout Israel intensify as Israelis protest in opposition to the invasion of Gaza. So far, most counter-government protests have been swiftly put down by authorities.
In the South, Israeli forces have engaged in a western advance to the sea, and are expected to reach the beach by tomorrow. This maneuver will result in the isolation of Gaza City into a northern pocket, and allow a south-north advance from central Gaza into Gaza City. AC: This will also effectively cut off any evacuation south for the millions of Palestinians who have not been able to leave Gaza City. It is not clear as to if Israel will allow fleeing civilians through their lines to the south, but this is unlikely for now as the situation remains highly dynamic.
Western Asia: Pakistan begins the process of deporting hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees who fled the country following the Taliban takeover two years ago. Last month, Pakistan announced that by Nov 1, all undocumented persons within the country would be deported. An estimated 1.7 million Afghan refugees currently reside in Pakistan and are facing deportation.
-Analyst Comments-
Israeli forces themselves have claimed “heavy casualties”, but it is not clear as to what Israel considers to be heavy casualties. Though statistics are impossible to verify, the IDF has publicly declared 16 casualties since the invasion of Gaza began. By contrast, roughly 10,000 Palestinian casualties have been reported since the start of this conflict. Note that Palestinian civilian casualties are difficult to discern from Hamas casualties. However, since militants are seeking refuge in long-established tunnels deep underground, the overwhelming majority of casualties in Gaza so far have been civilians.
Rumors are circulating on social media alleging Iran’s direct involvement in the Israeli War is to begin soon. So far, there are few indications that Iran’s actions are anything more than saber-rattling responses to Israel’s actions in Gaza. Most Arab States are preparing for this conflict to escalate, but all of this hinges on Israel’s actions in Gaza. If Israel continues to strike civilian centers, the excuse of Hamas using “human shields” is not an argument that is going to cut it with most of the world. As such, high-profile airstrikes resulting in substantial CIVCAS are likely to warrant a response from Middle Eastern nations that so far, have been biding their time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z November 02, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220002Z NOV 23
ICOD: 210002Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAELI ENCIRCLEMENT OF GAZA CITY COMPLETE. YEMENI STRIKES DRAW IRE FROM ARAB STATES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: This morning, Israeli forces in central Gaza reached the Med, completing the encirclement of Gaza City. It is unclear if this encirclement will be effective as the vast majority of Hamas’ combat strength lies underground. Throughout this invasion, many reports detail Hamas militants suddenly appearing in areas that were already cleared, or engaging IDF soldiers from multiple directions. As such the “front line” is likely not as solidified as the IDF would like to believe.
Jordanian and Saudi leaders have expressed concern with Yemen’s efforts to target Israel, as these attacks are carried out through their airspace. Jordan called the attacks “reckless” as Yemen is engaging Israel with extremely long-range cruise missiles in a manner which poses a threat to other Arab nations.
France has stated that they will send additional naval vessels to the region to assist with evacuation efforts and medical care for Palestinians. It is unclear as to which vessels will be sent ATT, though the number of NATO vessels already in theatre is substantial.
-HomeFront-
USA: Multiple strange incidents possibly related to domestic terror attempts have been reported over the past few weeks. Questionable details remain surrounding the Maine shooting and the fate of Robert Card, which have only raised more questions about his previous mental health incidents. Last week an alleged potential mass shooter was found deceased in a restroom at an amusement park in Colorado, with the words “I am not a killer” allegedly etched into the wall beside his body. AC: Though the lack of data results in significant intelligence gaps that don’t allow any substantial analysis of these events, the potential for false-flag operations being extremely high means that any questionable incident cannot be viewed at face value.
-Analyst Comments-
Questions remain about the fate of Palestinians who reside in Gaza City. Any accuracy with regards to casualties is not possible due to the sheer scale of the bombing campaign seen so far. Strikes have changed significant portions of geography making the geolocation of video/photo evidence difficult, and the true casualty count impossible to verify.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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