RR The Wire 2330Z October 20, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233020Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230020Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: US AGAIN ATTEMPTS TO DELAY ISRAELI INVASION OF GAZA. STRATEGIC MANEUVERING CONTINUES ON ALL SIDES AS PREPARATIONS FOR WAR CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Following Israeli statements that the IDF are ready for an invasion of Gaza, the US DoS is reportedly working to delay the campaign. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman proposes the creation of a Palestinian state, based on the 1967 borders.
Various militant groups continue to amass on the Syrian/Israeli border. The composition and disposition of these forces is not clear and extremely variable as many independent Islamic groups/tribes prepare for a more region-wide conflict.
Europe: General unrest remains following events in the Middle East. Various attacks are being reported throughout Europe but it is unclear as to if these attacks are deliberate terror attacks that remain unreported, or if they are more representative of general crime.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations and riots continue regularly throughout the US. So far, demonstrations have exhibited the standard volatility expected by today’s standards. More substantial/kinetic demonstrations are likely as flashpoints are reached in the Middle East. US politics remains in turmoil as Congress remains stagnant on a choice of House Speaker.
-Analyst Comments-
In the Middle East, all concerned parties are trading space, for time. Efforts are being undertaken by Israeli officials to shift expectations of what the invasion might look like. The US is attempting to delay the invasion so as to give military sources time to secure the release of more hostages. Israel, demonstrating extreme concerns with what is certain to be a largely counterinsurgency war, most of which will be fought underground, is attempting to bombard Gaza sufficiently before the ground operation begins. Netanyahu, who before this crisis was on the brink of experiencing a Civil War of his own, is unlikely to politically withstand anything less than a total initial invasion of Gaza, and at least a partial annexation of Gaza territory.
Most Arab nations (and a few European states) are concerned with the conflict expanding into Lebanon and beyond, and as such have taken precautions to improve their own readiness. A grand bluff is developing as Iran exerts influence throughout the region, and strengthen ties with Russia.
Around the world, care must be taken to accurately portray terror threats. MSM sources tend to underreport terror attacks that do not fit their chosen narrative, but amplify attacks that sensationalize violence. Consequently, determining the reasoning behind an attack is very difficult; discerning between regular street violence and a coordinated attack is not easy. Accusations are rampant that some jurisdictions are concealing the nature of attacks, in order to downplay the terror threat. Due to the nature of these atmospherics, none of these accusations can be verified without legal testimony, which is rarely given. However, constant vigilance is recommended as uncertainty regarding the impending actions in the Middle East result in increased potential for hostile actions here at home.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233020Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230020Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: US AGAIN ATTEMPTS TO DELAY ISRAELI INVASION OF GAZA. STRATEGIC MANEUVERING CONTINUES ON ALL SIDES AS PREPARATIONS FOR WAR CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Following Israeli statements that the IDF are ready for an invasion of Gaza, the US DoS is reportedly working to delay the campaign. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman proposes the creation of a Palestinian state, based on the 1967 borders.
Various militant groups continue to amass on the Syrian/Israeli border. The composition and disposition of these forces is not clear and extremely variable as many independent Islamic groups/tribes prepare for a more region-wide conflict.
Europe: General unrest remains following events in the Middle East. Various attacks are being reported throughout Europe but it is unclear as to if these attacks are deliberate terror attacks that remain unreported, or if they are more representative of general crime.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations and riots continue regularly throughout the US. So far, demonstrations have exhibited the standard volatility expected by today’s standards. More substantial/kinetic demonstrations are likely as flashpoints are reached in the Middle East. US politics remains in turmoil as Congress remains stagnant on a choice of House Speaker.
-Analyst Comments-
In the Middle East, all concerned parties are trading space, for time. Efforts are being undertaken by Israeli officials to shift expectations of what the invasion might look like. The US is attempting to delay the invasion so as to give military sources time to secure the release of more hostages. Israel, demonstrating extreme concerns with what is certain to be a largely counterinsurgency war, most of which will be fought underground, is attempting to bombard Gaza sufficiently before the ground operation begins. Netanyahu, who before this crisis was on the brink of experiencing a Civil War of his own, is unlikely to politically withstand anything less than a total initial invasion of Gaza, and at least a partial annexation of Gaza territory.
Most Arab nations (and a few European states) are concerned with the conflict expanding into Lebanon and beyond, and as such have taken precautions to improve their own readiness. A grand bluff is developing as Iran exerts influence throughout the region, and strengthen ties with Russia.
Around the world, care must be taken to accurately portray terror threats. MSM sources tend to underreport terror attacks that do not fit their chosen narrative, but amplify attacks that sensationalize violence. Consequently, determining the reasoning behind an attack is very difficult; discerning between regular street violence and a coordinated attack is not easy. Accusations are rampant that some jurisdictions are concealing the nature of attacks, in order to downplay the terror threat. Due to the nature of these atmospherics, none of these accusations can be verified without legal testimony, which is rarely given. However, constant vigilance is recommended as uncertainty regarding the impending actions in the Middle East result in increased potential for hostile actions here at home.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 21, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233021Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230021Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES TO MANDATE EVAC OF NORTHERN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli forces continue to drop leaflets urging a total evacuation of northern Gaza. Leaflets indicate that Israel will likely consider any person north of Wadi Gaza to be a threat. Israeli officials express concern with what is likely to become the Northern Front upon the invasion of Gaza. Local reports indicate small convoys carrying humanitarian aid have crossed the Rafah border crossing, with the Red Crescent taking the lead in distribution of aid resources. How much aid has been distributed is not currently known.
Saudi/Iranian relations deepen following talks to impose sanctions on Israel. Sporadic drone attacks continue to target US military bases throughout the Middle East.
Europe: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue to grow in size and severity. In London today, over 100,000 protestors rallied to show support for Palestine.
-HomeFront-
USA: POL markets tighten as uncertainty in the Middle East impacts crude prices. Perhaps more significantly, OPEC members continue to cut production by 1.3 million BPD. Border Crisis: The US reports a total of 2.47 million encounters for FY 2023, which is the highest number of illegals encountered since records began.
-Analyst Comments-
While the world awaits Israel’s next move, the Arab world is making moves of their own. Saudi Arabia and Iran, two nations which have historically had an icy relationship have experienced a thawing of tensions. Though no confirmation can be obtained, reportedly the IRGC Quds Force commander, BG Ismail Qa'ani has arrived in western Syria to coordinate the various pro-Iranian militant groups staged on the Israeli border. Though the veracity of this reporting cannot be judged, this would be another sign of preparations being made with the expectation of this conflict rapidly expanding.
From the nation-state level, down to individual tribes, it is possible that many Islamic groups are putting aside their differences for the time being in order to focus on a common enemy: Israel and the nations that support her. These factors will play a role in everything from economics to general street violence as groups align with their historic allies, and even forge new temporary alliances as well.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233021Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230021Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES TO MANDATE EVAC OF NORTHERN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli forces continue to drop leaflets urging a total evacuation of northern Gaza. Leaflets indicate that Israel will likely consider any person north of Wadi Gaza to be a threat. Israeli officials express concern with what is likely to become the Northern Front upon the invasion of Gaza. Local reports indicate small convoys carrying humanitarian aid have crossed the Rafah border crossing, with the Red Crescent taking the lead in distribution of aid resources. How much aid has been distributed is not currently known.
Saudi/Iranian relations deepen following talks to impose sanctions on Israel. Sporadic drone attacks continue to target US military bases throughout the Middle East.
Europe: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue to grow in size and severity. In London today, over 100,000 protestors rallied to show support for Palestine.
-HomeFront-
USA: POL markets tighten as uncertainty in the Middle East impacts crude prices. Perhaps more significantly, OPEC members continue to cut production by 1.3 million BPD. Border Crisis: The US reports a total of 2.47 million encounters for FY 2023, which is the highest number of illegals encountered since records began.
-Analyst Comments-
While the world awaits Israel’s next move, the Arab world is making moves of their own. Saudi Arabia and Iran, two nations which have historically had an icy relationship have experienced a thawing of tensions. Though no confirmation can be obtained, reportedly the IRGC Quds Force commander, BG Ismail Qa'ani has arrived in western Syria to coordinate the various pro-Iranian militant groups staged on the Israeli border. Though the veracity of this reporting cannot be judged, this would be another sign of preparations being made with the expectation of this conflict rapidly expanding.
From the nation-state level, down to individual tribes, it is possible that many Islamic groups are putting aside their differences for the time being in order to focus on a common enemy: Israel and the nations that support her. These factors will play a role in everything from economics to general street violence as groups align with their historic allies, and even forge new temporary alliances as well.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 23, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233023Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230023Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ALASKA AIRLINES EXPERIENCES ATTEMPTED HIJACKING. CONFLICT CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Rocket and Drone attacks on US military bases in the Middle East increase in frequency following increased tensions in the region. In Israel, the main offensive thrust into Gaza has not yet begun. Sporadic rocket attacks continue from Gaza as Israeli forces conduct limited clearance operations in some districts on the Gaza border.
Substantial advertising campaigns are observed to be spreading regarding Western support for Israel. Children’s content on various media platforms has been specifically targeted by ads encouraging support for Israel.
South Africa: Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) leader Julius Malema increases hostile rhetoric, declaring EFF support to Palestine. AC: The situation in South Africa has been tense for many months following Malema’s calls for the murder of white farmers, but rhetoric has increased in severity following the conflict in the Middle East. EFF rallies in support of Palestine continue to be held in Pretoria.
-HomeFront-
USA: Tyson Foods announces major investment in Protix, a company dedicated to insect production. Reports indicate Protix intends to build an insect processing facility in the US with the goal of providing insect-based materials intended for human consumption. It is not clear as to how much Tyson has invested in this company.
Terrorism Update: Horizon Flight 2059 (flying for Alaska Airlines) experiences attempted hijacking after an authorized jumpseat passenger attempts to shut down the engines mid-flight. The assailant also deployed engine fire suppression systems in an apparent attempt to bring the aircraft down. The two pilots flying the aircraft subdued the hijacker and landed safely. Details are vague at best, but officials state that the hijacker was an off-duty pilot who was properly authorized to fly in the jumpseat, as is standard practice on most airlines.
-Analyst Comments-
The attempted hijacking of AS2059 is significant as the attack was undertaken by an approved person. Based on the publicly available details following the incident, this was likely a very deliberate hijacking attempt. As the attacker likely could not reach the yoke, the attacker knew that the highest chance for success lay with shutting down the engines, and pulling the fire suppression T-handles. Both of which are reachable by someone standing behind the pilots on the Embraer E-175. This action would have resulted in shutting off hydraulics, fuel flow, and a number of other systems essential for flight. The chance that this was accidental is near zero; both moving the throttle and activating fire suppression systems are impossible to do without considerable, deliberate effort. Had the on-duty crew not rapidly physically engaged the hijacker in a vigorous manner, this incident could have had a different outcome. Fortunately, both pilots were able to regain control of the aircraft, and safely divert to PDX.
Very few details (such as the motive for the attack) are likely to emerge following this incident, due to national security concerns. As the attacker was an approved person who was properly vetted and authorized, there is likely very little that can be done to prevent this from happening again. Though due to the unique nature of the attack, this is likely an isolated incident.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233023Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230023Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ALASKA AIRLINES EXPERIENCES ATTEMPTED HIJACKING. CONFLICT CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Rocket and Drone attacks on US military bases in the Middle East increase in frequency following increased tensions in the region. In Israel, the main offensive thrust into Gaza has not yet begun. Sporadic rocket attacks continue from Gaza as Israeli forces conduct limited clearance operations in some districts on the Gaza border.
Substantial advertising campaigns are observed to be spreading regarding Western support for Israel. Children’s content on various media platforms has been specifically targeted by ads encouraging support for Israel.
South Africa: Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) leader Julius Malema increases hostile rhetoric, declaring EFF support to Palestine. AC: The situation in South Africa has been tense for many months following Malema’s calls for the murder of white farmers, but rhetoric has increased in severity following the conflict in the Middle East. EFF rallies in support of Palestine continue to be held in Pretoria.
-HomeFront-
USA: Tyson Foods announces major investment in Protix, a company dedicated to insect production. Reports indicate Protix intends to build an insect processing facility in the US with the goal of providing insect-based materials intended for human consumption. It is not clear as to how much Tyson has invested in this company.
Terrorism Update: Horizon Flight 2059 (flying for Alaska Airlines) experiences attempted hijacking after an authorized jumpseat passenger attempts to shut down the engines mid-flight. The assailant also deployed engine fire suppression systems in an apparent attempt to bring the aircraft down. The two pilots flying the aircraft subdued the hijacker and landed safely. Details are vague at best, but officials state that the hijacker was an off-duty pilot who was properly authorized to fly in the jumpseat, as is standard practice on most airlines.
-Analyst Comments-
The attempted hijacking of AS2059 is significant as the attack was undertaken by an approved person. Based on the publicly available details following the incident, this was likely a very deliberate hijacking attempt. As the attacker likely could not reach the yoke, the attacker knew that the highest chance for success lay with shutting down the engines, and pulling the fire suppression T-handles. Both of which are reachable by someone standing behind the pilots on the Embraer E-175. This action would have resulted in shutting off hydraulics, fuel flow, and a number of other systems essential for flight. The chance that this was accidental is near zero; both moving the throttle and activating fire suppression systems are impossible to do without considerable, deliberate effort. Had the on-duty crew not rapidly physically engaged the hijacker in a vigorous manner, this incident could have had a different outcome. Fortunately, both pilots were able to regain control of the aircraft, and safely divert to PDX.
Very few details (such as the motive for the attack) are likely to emerge following this incident, due to national security concerns. As the attacker was an approved person who was properly vetted and authorized, there is likely very little that can be done to prevent this from happening again. Though due to the unique nature of the attack, this is likely an isolated incident.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 24, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233024Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230024Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL RAMPS UP BOMBING CAMPAIGN OF GAZA. US CONTINUES TO INCREASE POSTURE IN THE REGION.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel has been observed to increase bombing campaign along the entire Gaza border. Israel continues bombing in the West Bank, and in Lebanon and Syria. Hamas and Hezbollah continue sporadic rocket attacks, targeting locations deep inside Israel. Clearance operations are reportedly underway in Jenin, West Bank. Israel has rejected all calls by the UN for a ceasefire, and has vowed to achieve the “total destruction” of Hamas.
CENTCOM confirms that so far two dozen US military personnel have been wounded in attacks on US military bases in the Middle East over the past few weeks. US DoS rhetoric indicates a potential mass evacuation campaign of USPER in the region.
South America: Tensions flare between Venezuela and Guyana following a long-standing territorial dispute regarding mineral rights. Diplomats on both sides have warned their counterparts not to escalate the situation. However, the announcement of a public referendum in Venezuela on this issue (scheduled for December) has increased tensions in the region.
-HomeFront-
USA: Domestic politics remain tense following recent developments regarding the legal targeting of Trump associates, as well as citizens associated with the J6 event.
-Analyst Comments-
The DoS rhetoric of concern for the potential evacuation of over 600,000 Americans from the Middle East region is perplexing, as the logistical constraints alone make this an impossible feat. The presence of 2x CSGs and at least 1x MEU in the area or on the way, with potentially more amphibious capability available in the CENTCOM AOR is concerning, and hints of the US entering the conflict directly. US political rhetoric concerning Iran remains alarming, as US politicians continue to directly and openly call for war.
Tensions are mounting between Israel and the UN as Israeli forces continue to target Gaza, and by default, UN aid efforts. UN forces on the ground are urging fuel deliveries to be allowed in through the Rafah border crossing, in order to continue running generators for humanitarian work. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has stated that the attacks by Hamas did not “occur in a vacuum”, implying the well-documented history of the conflict in the region. This has prompted Israel to call for his dismissal.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233024Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230024Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL RAMPS UP BOMBING CAMPAIGN OF GAZA. US CONTINUES TO INCREASE POSTURE IN THE REGION.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel has been observed to increase bombing campaign along the entire Gaza border. Israel continues bombing in the West Bank, and in Lebanon and Syria. Hamas and Hezbollah continue sporadic rocket attacks, targeting locations deep inside Israel. Clearance operations are reportedly underway in Jenin, West Bank. Israel has rejected all calls by the UN for a ceasefire, and has vowed to achieve the “total destruction” of Hamas.
CENTCOM confirms that so far two dozen US military personnel have been wounded in attacks on US military bases in the Middle East over the past few weeks. US DoS rhetoric indicates a potential mass evacuation campaign of USPER in the region.
South America: Tensions flare between Venezuela and Guyana following a long-standing territorial dispute regarding mineral rights. Diplomats on both sides have warned their counterparts not to escalate the situation. However, the announcement of a public referendum in Venezuela on this issue (scheduled for December) has increased tensions in the region.
-HomeFront-
USA: Domestic politics remain tense following recent developments regarding the legal targeting of Trump associates, as well as citizens associated with the J6 event.
-Analyst Comments-
The DoS rhetoric of concern for the potential evacuation of over 600,000 Americans from the Middle East region is perplexing, as the logistical constraints alone make this an impossible feat. The presence of 2x CSGs and at least 1x MEU in the area or on the way, with potentially more amphibious capability available in the CENTCOM AOR is concerning, and hints of the US entering the conflict directly. US political rhetoric concerning Iran remains alarming, as US politicians continue to directly and openly call for war.
Tensions are mounting between Israel and the UN as Israeli forces continue to target Gaza, and by default, UN aid efforts. UN forces on the ground are urging fuel deliveries to be allowed in through the Rafah border crossing, in order to continue running generators for humanitarian work. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has stated that the attacks by Hamas did not “occur in a vacuum”, implying the well-documented history of the conflict in the region. This has prompted Israel to call for his dismissal.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 25, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233025Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230025Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL ALLEGEDLY DELAYS INVASION OF GAZA. POLITICAL TURMOIL CONTINUES IN THE US.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel reports delaying the invasion of Gaza, reportedly due to US requests. The US allegedly wants to move more assets into the region, before the conflict expands substantially.
Egyptian state television reports have impressed the combat readiness of Egyptian troops, stating that Egypt is ready for an escalation.
In the White House, dissention becomes more prevalent among government workers. Many of which are Jewish, and many of which support Palestine. This has reportedly caused behavioral issues and internal conflict among staff members, particularly in the DoS. As a result, DoS leadership has been hosting “listening sessions” with Muslim and Jewish employees as staffers from both sides lobby to influence DoS policy in their favor.
-HomeFront-
USA: Details emerge regarding the attempted hijacking of AS2059 indicating the hijacker was under the extreme influence of psychedelic mushrooms and was experiencing a psychological episode. This allegedly caused him to react unexpectedly, which resulted in him attempting to bring the plane down.
In Congress, Rep. Mike Johnson elected Speaker of the House. Johnson has stated that his first official action will be to introduce a resolution in support of Israel.
Donald Trump’s trial continues as he is fined $10,000 for allegedly violating a gag order that forbid him from showing photographic evidence of the conflict of interest arising from the judge presiding his current case employing a law clerk that has an intimate relationship with Sen. Chuck Schumer. AC: As a reminder, this is a civil trial, not criminal.
-Analyst Comments-
The psychological episode experienced on AS2059 is unusual, but highlights the vulnerabilities within supposedly secure institutions responsible for airline travel. As years of medical persecution have thinned the number of commercial airline pilots to alarmingly low numbers, incidents will likely continue to happen as the “bar is lowered” for critical jobs such as pilots, military service members, medical professionals, etc.
In the Middle East, the low trustworthiness of all parties involved in the Israeli conflict mean that the delay of the Gaza invasion could be for any number of reasons. As the element of surprise is nonexistent, and Palestinians have been expecting an Israeli invasion of this magnitude for decades, there is very little deception that Israel can use in order to reduce the combat effectiveness of Hamas fighters. The small size of the combat zone will almost certainly result in some of the most intense fighting seen in decades. Israeli, American, and NATO forces will likely be facing a multi-front war in which none of the players from the West currently have the hardware or the willing troops to wage war with. This has already resulted in some of the most substantial Information Operations conducted since 2019.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233025Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230025Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL ALLEGEDLY DELAYS INVASION OF GAZA. POLITICAL TURMOIL CONTINUES IN THE US.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel reports delaying the invasion of Gaza, reportedly due to US requests. The US allegedly wants to move more assets into the region, before the conflict expands substantially.
Egyptian state television reports have impressed the combat readiness of Egyptian troops, stating that Egypt is ready for an escalation.
In the White House, dissention becomes more prevalent among government workers. Many of which are Jewish, and many of which support Palestine. This has reportedly caused behavioral issues and internal conflict among staff members, particularly in the DoS. As a result, DoS leadership has been hosting “listening sessions” with Muslim and Jewish employees as staffers from both sides lobby to influence DoS policy in their favor.
-HomeFront-
USA: Details emerge regarding the attempted hijacking of AS2059 indicating the hijacker was under the extreme influence of psychedelic mushrooms and was experiencing a psychological episode. This allegedly caused him to react unexpectedly, which resulted in him attempting to bring the plane down.
In Congress, Rep. Mike Johnson elected Speaker of the House. Johnson has stated that his first official action will be to introduce a resolution in support of Israel.
Donald Trump’s trial continues as he is fined $10,000 for allegedly violating a gag order that forbid him from showing photographic evidence of the conflict of interest arising from the judge presiding his current case employing a law clerk that has an intimate relationship with Sen. Chuck Schumer. AC: As a reminder, this is a civil trial, not criminal.
-Analyst Comments-
The psychological episode experienced on AS2059 is unusual, but highlights the vulnerabilities within supposedly secure institutions responsible for airline travel. As years of medical persecution have thinned the number of commercial airline pilots to alarmingly low numbers, incidents will likely continue to happen as the “bar is lowered” for critical jobs such as pilots, military service members, medical professionals, etc.
In the Middle East, the low trustworthiness of all parties involved in the Israeli conflict mean that the delay of the Gaza invasion could be for any number of reasons. As the element of surprise is nonexistent, and Palestinians have been expecting an Israeli invasion of this magnitude for decades, there is very little deception that Israel can use in order to reduce the combat effectiveness of Hamas fighters. The small size of the combat zone will almost certainly result in some of the most intense fighting seen in decades. Israeli, American, and NATO forces will likely be facing a multi-front war in which none of the players from the West currently have the hardware or the willing troops to wage war with. This has already resulted in some of the most substantial Information Operations conducted since 2019.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 26, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233026Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230026Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES LIMITED CLEARANCE OPERATIONS AS ROCKET ATTACKS INTENSIFY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Rocket attacks by Hamas intensify today as the Israeli bombing/shelling campaign in Gaza continues. Conflicting reports indicate possibly multiple MANPAD attacks on Israeli aircraft, with no success so far. No word on when the official invasion is set to begin, though Netanyahu has stated that the date has been set.
Russia: AFRF conduct the first major series of exercises testing nuclear response following the Russian Duma’s vote to de-ratify Russia’s commitment to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) earlier this month.
-HomeFront-
USA: Mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine leaves 18 dead and many more wounded. The only details regarding the suspect originate from LE officials. The suspect has been identified as SFC. Robert Card, USAR. According to LE officials, Card has a history of mental issues. He was recently taken for mental treatment following concerns among his reserve unit. The suspect remains at large and is considered armed and dangerous.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel may be attempting to test Hamas positions, and get a feel for the urban combat before the grand campaign begins. Israeli “probing attacks” into Gaza may also actually be a main assault, rather than recon-by-fire or some other skirmish. If this is plausible, when Israeli forces encounter suborn resistance, they can withdraw, regroup, and claim they never invaded in the first place, and that the real invasion is yet to come. Several attacks, and subsequent withdrawals have been observed in Gaza over the past few days, adding credence to this theory. Israeli politicians continuing to stress the long-term nature of this war may also by default add weight to this theory. On the other side of the wire, Hamas likely is suffering losses from Israeli strikes, but exactly how many losses is impossible for anyone to know.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233026Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230026Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES LIMITED CLEARANCE OPERATIONS AS ROCKET ATTACKS INTENSIFY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Rocket attacks by Hamas intensify today as the Israeli bombing/shelling campaign in Gaza continues. Conflicting reports indicate possibly multiple MANPAD attacks on Israeli aircraft, with no success so far. No word on when the official invasion is set to begin, though Netanyahu has stated that the date has been set.
Russia: AFRF conduct the first major series of exercises testing nuclear response following the Russian Duma’s vote to de-ratify Russia’s commitment to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) earlier this month.
-HomeFront-
USA: Mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine leaves 18 dead and many more wounded. The only details regarding the suspect originate from LE officials. The suspect has been identified as SFC. Robert Card, USAR. According to LE officials, Card has a history of mental issues. He was recently taken for mental treatment following concerns among his reserve unit. The suspect remains at large and is considered armed and dangerous.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel may be attempting to test Hamas positions, and get a feel for the urban combat before the grand campaign begins. Israeli “probing attacks” into Gaza may also actually be a main assault, rather than recon-by-fire or some other skirmish. If this is plausible, when Israeli forces encounter suborn resistance, they can withdraw, regroup, and claim they never invaded in the first place, and that the real invasion is yet to come. Several attacks, and subsequent withdrawals have been observed in Gaza over the past few days, adding credence to this theory. Israeli politicians continuing to stress the long-term nature of this war may also by default add weight to this theory. On the other side of the wire, Hamas likely is suffering losses from Israeli strikes, but exactly how many losses is impossible for anyone to know.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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PP The Wire 2000Z October 27, 2023
PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 200027Z OCT 23
ICOD: 193027Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: THE ISRAELI INVASION OF GAZA HAS BEGUN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Intense bombardment of Gaza continues as Israeli armor is observed breaking through into northern Gaza. Conflict has broken out all along the Gaza border line, as well as in the West Bank. Hamas has issued statements that they are engaging Israeli tanks IVO al-Bureij camp.
Insurgent-controlled media claims US military bases in Kharab Al-Jir and at the al-Omar oil field in Syria are currently under attack. No independent verification of these reports can be made at this time.
Yesterday US forces conducted strikes on alleged Iranian proxy groups in Syria that were allegedly responsible for the attacks on US bases over the past few weeks.
-Analyst Comments-
Information regarding the invasion of Gaza will be hard to verify with any certainty. Additionally, most communications in and out of Gaza have been previously severed so very little information is known. Information regarding international strategic moves will be more reliable, but in a time of overwhelming information warfare, every detail is suspect.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 200027Z OCT 23
ICOD: 193027Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: THE ISRAELI INVASION OF GAZA HAS BEGUN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Intense bombardment of Gaza continues as Israeli armor is observed breaking through into northern Gaza. Conflict has broken out all along the Gaza border line, as well as in the West Bank. Hamas has issued statements that they are engaging Israeli tanks IVO al-Bureij camp.
Insurgent-controlled media claims US military bases in Kharab Al-Jir and at the al-Omar oil field in Syria are currently under attack. No independent verification of these reports can be made at this time.
Yesterday US forces conducted strikes on alleged Iranian proxy groups in Syria that were allegedly responsible for the attacks on US bases over the past few weeks.
-Analyst Comments-
Information regarding the invasion of Gaza will be hard to verify with any certainty. Additionally, most communications in and out of Gaza have been previously severed so very little information is known. Information regarding international strategic moves will be more reliable, but in a time of overwhelming information warfare, every detail is suspect.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 1500Z October 28, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 150028Z OCT 23
ICOD: 140028Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAELI ADVANCE MEETS HEAVY RESISTANCE IN NORTHERN GAZA. REGIONAL PLAYERS BEGIN INTENSIFYING CONFLICT.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Information warfare takes center stage as all sides seek to amplify their gains, and downplay losses. Israeli forces have declared they are jamming much of the EM spectrum and spoofing GPS signals, resulting in some of the most significant EW effects seen in years.
Pro-Palestinian fighters have amassed on the Iraq/Jordan border in substantial numbers. Egyptian and Israeli fighter aircraft have reportedly engaged in foreign relations, with pilots using aggressive maneuvers towards each other over the border/waters between the two countries.
In Lebanon, the US Embassy urges all US citizens to immediately leave the country. Similar travel alerts are routinely being established by most European nations regarding much of the Middle East.
The UN General Assembly adopts a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. In response, Israel’s Ambassador states that “the UN holds not even one ounce of legitimacy”.
Vodafone has announced that they are setting up emergency cell towers in Egypt, on the border with Gaza, with the intent to provide data services for those documenting combat actions within Gaza. Elon Musk requests any aid groups in Gaza to make contact with Starlink services, but as of now no ground terminal in Gaza has requested a satellite link.
-HomeFront-
USA: In Maine, Robert Card found dead following extensive search. Details are extremely limited, but he was reportedly found in a dumpster with two GSW to the head. NFI ATT.
-Analyst Comments-
Despite the sparse flow of information, it is possible that the Israeli advance slowed last night shortly after a multi-pronged assault into northern Gaza.
Hamas, claims the advance was halted due to their defensive efforts. Within a few minutes of this announcement, Israeli pundits/influencers claimed the halt in the North was voluntary, and that the “real attack” will occur at a different time and place. After a few hours, IDF officials have claimed that the start of the military operation has not yet been declared. Either way, speed will likely not be a deciding factor in this fight, and though video evidence indicates extremely intense fighting the losses from either side are not known.
None of the claims by either side will likely be verified within time for operational success to practically be gauged. By the time information becomes verified, it is Overcome by Events (OBE) and no longer relevant. What is more clear is that multiple assaults on Gaza are ongoing, and that statements from IDF officials claiming the assault hasn’t begun yet are likely gaslighting attempts intended to save face resulting from losses taken by heavy resistance. Amphibious landings have occurred in the West and armored and infantry advances in the North, East, and South. If this “not-yet-begun” conflict is a feint or a ruse, it is unclear as to where the “real” attack will take place, as Gaza is already being engaged on all fronts.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 150028Z OCT 23
ICOD: 140028Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAELI ADVANCE MEETS HEAVY RESISTANCE IN NORTHERN GAZA. REGIONAL PLAYERS BEGIN INTENSIFYING CONFLICT.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Information warfare takes center stage as all sides seek to amplify their gains, and downplay losses. Israeli forces have declared they are jamming much of the EM spectrum and spoofing GPS signals, resulting in some of the most significant EW effects seen in years.
Pro-Palestinian fighters have amassed on the Iraq/Jordan border in substantial numbers. Egyptian and Israeli fighter aircraft have reportedly engaged in foreign relations, with pilots using aggressive maneuvers towards each other over the border/waters between the two countries.
In Lebanon, the US Embassy urges all US citizens to immediately leave the country. Similar travel alerts are routinely being established by most European nations regarding much of the Middle East.
The UN General Assembly adopts a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. In response, Israel’s Ambassador states that “the UN holds not even one ounce of legitimacy”.
Vodafone has announced that they are setting up emergency cell towers in Egypt, on the border with Gaza, with the intent to provide data services for those documenting combat actions within Gaza. Elon Musk requests any aid groups in Gaza to make contact with Starlink services, but as of now no ground terminal in Gaza has requested a satellite link.
-HomeFront-
USA: In Maine, Robert Card found dead following extensive search. Details are extremely limited, but he was reportedly found in a dumpster with two GSW to the head. NFI ATT.
-Analyst Comments-
Despite the sparse flow of information, it is possible that the Israeli advance slowed last night shortly after a multi-pronged assault into northern Gaza.
Hamas, claims the advance was halted due to their defensive efforts. Within a few minutes of this announcement, Israeli pundits/influencers claimed the halt in the North was voluntary, and that the “real attack” will occur at a different time and place. After a few hours, IDF officials have claimed that the start of the military operation has not yet been declared. Either way, speed will likely not be a deciding factor in this fight, and though video evidence indicates extremely intense fighting the losses from either side are not known.
None of the claims by either side will likely be verified within time for operational success to practically be gauged. By the time information becomes verified, it is Overcome by Events (OBE) and no longer relevant. What is more clear is that multiple assaults on Gaza are ongoing, and that statements from IDF officials claiming the assault hasn’t begun yet are likely gaslighting attempts intended to save face resulting from losses taken by heavy resistance. Amphibious landings have occurred in the West and armored and infantry advances in the North, East, and South. If this “not-yet-begun” conflict is a feint or a ruse, it is unclear as to where the “real” attack will take place, as Gaza is already being engaged on all fronts.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2300Z October 30, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230030Z OCT 23
ICOD: 223030Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: FEW DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING GAZA GROUND INVASION. ISRAEL CONTINUES TARGETING IN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli invasion of Gaza continues with little information regarding the progress of the advance. Information from the Palestinians has slowed to a crawl following comms blackouts, the lack of electricity, airstrikes, etc. Hamas has allegedly been engaged in significant combat actions in the North, though details from the front are not clear ATT. Hamas rocket attacks have remained fairly constant since the beginning of this war, but have increased in number immediately following substantial Israeli strikes, or strikes on facilities that would ordinarily be considered CAT 1 NSE (hospitals, schools, Mosques, community centers, etc).
This morning, Wikileaks released leaked internal IDF documents that suggest Israel is planning to expel the entire Palestinian population from Gaza, to be resettled in the Egyptian Sinai. Though these documents cannot be independently verified with 100% certainty ATT, these very early reports corroborate earlier analysis that indicates Israel is not seeking to stop at the destruction of Hamas, but is actually invested in the removal of all civilian Palestinians from Gaza.
-HomeFront-
USA: In Maine, the circumstances regarding the death of Robert Card remain unclear. Since the finding of his body, much information in the public sphere has been speculatory. Initial reports that Card suffered two GSW to the head remain unprovable. However, as authorities have total control over evidence Chain of Custody, and since authorities have not released any substantial details at all, MSM reporting remains the only sources for most of the information that is public.
-Analyst Comments-
As the Israeli war in Gaza continues, much of the media coverage has focused on atrocity, with both sides seeking to dominate the information space. As such, knowledge of how military targeting works would be beneficial for making informed decisions.
Per JP 3-60, most western nations that abide by US Targeting doctrine are prohibited from striking hospitals, even if used by enemy forces. The Deliberate Targeting process comprises most of US kinetic targeting, and is a rigid data-centric process to ensure legal military targets are struck in accordance with military law. The Dynamic targeting process is an expedited process to be used mostly in situations of immediate self-defense, but is no less legally binding (and is limited in scope to only the munition required for self-defense). Israel is abiding by neither of these processes, and is striking targets that if held to current US military law, are illegal. Population density and the intricacies of point mensuration to develop Joint Desired Points of Impact (JDPIs) in the urban environment, mean that very few of Israel’s strikes conform to US or NATO law. Considering the US and NATO’s overwhelming support for Israel, and the assembly one of the largest military flotillas in NATO history throughout the region, this is an important factor to remember. Hamas, on the other hand, continues to adhere to an insurgent-style model, and does not possess any significant technology that would result in precision targeting. Hamas’ rocket attacks using unguided munitions, are by definition indiscriminate.
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230030Z OCT 23
ICOD: 223030Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: FEW DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING GAZA GROUND INVASION. ISRAEL CONTINUES TARGETING IN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli invasion of Gaza continues with little information regarding the progress of the advance. Information from the Palestinians has slowed to a crawl following comms blackouts, the lack of electricity, airstrikes, etc. Hamas has allegedly been engaged in significant combat actions in the North, though details from the front are not clear ATT. Hamas rocket attacks have remained fairly constant since the beginning of this war, but have increased in number immediately following substantial Israeli strikes, or strikes on facilities that would ordinarily be considered CAT 1 NSE (hospitals, schools, Mosques, community centers, etc).
This morning, Wikileaks released leaked internal IDF documents that suggest Israel is planning to expel the entire Palestinian population from Gaza, to be resettled in the Egyptian Sinai. Though these documents cannot be independently verified with 100% certainty ATT, these very early reports corroborate earlier analysis that indicates Israel is not seeking to stop at the destruction of Hamas, but is actually invested in the removal of all civilian Palestinians from Gaza.
-HomeFront-
USA: In Maine, the circumstances regarding the death of Robert Card remain unclear. Since the finding of his body, much information in the public sphere has been speculatory. Initial reports that Card suffered two GSW to the head remain unprovable. However, as authorities have total control over evidence Chain of Custody, and since authorities have not released any substantial details at all, MSM reporting remains the only sources for most of the information that is public.
-Analyst Comments-
As the Israeli war in Gaza continues, much of the media coverage has focused on atrocity, with both sides seeking to dominate the information space. As such, knowledge of how military targeting works would be beneficial for making informed decisions.
Per JP 3-60, most western nations that abide by US Targeting doctrine are prohibited from striking hospitals, even if used by enemy forces. The Deliberate Targeting process comprises most of US kinetic targeting, and is a rigid data-centric process to ensure legal military targets are struck in accordance with military law. The Dynamic targeting process is an expedited process to be used mostly in situations of immediate self-defense, but is no less legally binding (and is limited in scope to only the munition required for self-defense). Israel is abiding by neither of these processes, and is striking targets that if held to current US military law, are illegal. Population density and the intricacies of point mensuration to develop Joint Desired Points of Impact (JDPIs) in the urban environment, mean that very few of Israel’s strikes conform to US or NATO law. Considering the US and NATO’s overwhelming support for Israel, and the assembly one of the largest military flotillas in NATO history throughout the region, this is an important factor to remember. Hamas, on the other hand, continues to adhere to an insurgent-style model, and does not possess any significant technology that would result in precision targeting. Hamas’ rocket attacks using unguided munitions, are by definition indiscriminate.
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Regarding the Maine shooting and the fate of Robert Card, several MSM reports have quietly changed the headline of “two-GSW to the head” to “self-inflicted GSW”, indicating a quiet retraction of this crucial detail. In any case, the public is unlikely to know the truth of Card’s death, which is unfortunate considering the long trail of evidence suggesting Card’s actions were exceptionally predictable, and that he had previously been under investigation for potentially being a mass shooter. The only fact that remains certain is that Robert Card is deceased, and he was a person of interest with regards to the Maine shooting.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2300Z October 31, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230031Z OCT 23
ICOD: 223031Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: YEMENI ATTACKS ON ISRAEL INTENSIFY. ISRAEL TAKES HEAVY CASUALTIES, MAKES SLOW PROGRESS IN NORTHERN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The first few days of the Israeli invasion of Gaza have resulted in fierce resistance, and slow progress. Video evidence indicates Hamas has regularly and effectively targeted Israeli MBTs, IFVs, and APCs during the advance. Israeli DM Gallant confirms via press conference that IDF has suffered heavy losses, though the exact numbers of casualties/losses is unknown.
Missile attacks from Yemen have increased following the declaration of War issued by the rebel-held government sector. It is difficult to determine the effectiveness (or existence) of many of these extremely long-range attacks; many reports of random missile impacts in Israel have been reported without any indication of a point of origin.
Earlier today, IDF officials claimed responsibility for a substantial airstrike on the Jabalia Refugee Camp in Northern Gaza. IDF officials claim the strike was targeting one Hamas leader, and many civilian casualties have been reported.
Elon Musk’s claims of Starlink support for Gaza backtrack as he claims that Starlink will only be provided for Gaza after investigation and permission from the US and Israel is granted. It is unclear as to if connections and internet traffic will be monitored by Starlink to ensure that their services are only being used for humanitarian purposes. AC: Based on these conditions, in the remote chance someone has Starlink in Gaza, it is extraordinarily unlikely to be allowed to function. For information exchange, infrastructure that does not rely on Israeli or American resources would be the most reliable form of communication in and out of Gaza.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel’s battle plan appears to be centered around an invasion of Northern Gaza on all fronts, followed by a southern push to the Sinai. Whether or not Israel will be able to obtain these goals is unclear, as overwhelming rhetoric from Israeli officials has attempted to temper expectations and prepare for a long campaign. Per long-standing Israeli defense doctrine, Israel is likely expecting long-term logistical support from the US, as the IDF has already expended substantial munitions in this war so far. Per IDF officials the Iron Dome missile supply is running low, resulting in prioritizing defensive coverage of heavily populated areas.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230031Z OCT 23
ICOD: 223031Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: YEMENI ATTACKS ON ISRAEL INTENSIFY. ISRAEL TAKES HEAVY CASUALTIES, MAKES SLOW PROGRESS IN NORTHERN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The first few days of the Israeli invasion of Gaza have resulted in fierce resistance, and slow progress. Video evidence indicates Hamas has regularly and effectively targeted Israeli MBTs, IFVs, and APCs during the advance. Israeli DM Gallant confirms via press conference that IDF has suffered heavy losses, though the exact numbers of casualties/losses is unknown.
Missile attacks from Yemen have increased following the declaration of War issued by the rebel-held government sector. It is difficult to determine the effectiveness (or existence) of many of these extremely long-range attacks; many reports of random missile impacts in Israel have been reported without any indication of a point of origin.
Earlier today, IDF officials claimed responsibility for a substantial airstrike on the Jabalia Refugee Camp in Northern Gaza. IDF officials claim the strike was targeting one Hamas leader, and many civilian casualties have been reported.
Elon Musk’s claims of Starlink support for Gaza backtrack as he claims that Starlink will only be provided for Gaza after investigation and permission from the US and Israel is granted. It is unclear as to if connections and internet traffic will be monitored by Starlink to ensure that their services are only being used for humanitarian purposes. AC: Based on these conditions, in the remote chance someone has Starlink in Gaza, it is extraordinarily unlikely to be allowed to function. For information exchange, infrastructure that does not rely on Israeli or American resources would be the most reliable form of communication in and out of Gaza.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel’s battle plan appears to be centered around an invasion of Northern Gaza on all fronts, followed by a southern push to the Sinai. Whether or not Israel will be able to obtain these goals is unclear, as overwhelming rhetoric from Israeli officials has attempted to temper expectations and prepare for a long campaign. Per long-standing Israeli defense doctrine, Israel is likely expecting long-term logistical support from the US, as the IDF has already expended substantial munitions in this war so far. Per IDF officials the Iron Dome missile supply is running low, resulting in prioritizing defensive coverage of heavily populated areas.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2300Z November 01, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230001Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223001Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES ADVANCE INTO GAZA. CASUALTIES MOUNT ON ALL SIDES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues to take casualties in their advance on Gaza City as Information Operations from both sides obfuscate the situation on the ground. Demonstrations throughout Israel intensify as Israelis protest in opposition to the invasion of Gaza. So far, most counter-government protests have been swiftly put down by authorities.
In the South, Israeli forces have engaged in a western advance to the sea, and are expected to reach the beach by tomorrow. This maneuver will result in the isolation of Gaza City into a northern pocket, and allow a south-north advance from central Gaza into Gaza City. AC: This will also effectively cut off any evacuation south for the millions of Palestinians who have not been able to leave Gaza City. It is not clear as to if Israel will allow fleeing civilians through their lines to the south, but this is unlikely for now as the situation remains highly dynamic.
Western Asia: Pakistan begins the process of deporting hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees who fled the country following the Taliban takeover two years ago. Last month, Pakistan announced that by Nov 1, all undocumented persons within the country would be deported. An estimated 1.7 million Afghan refugees currently reside in Pakistan and are facing deportation.
-Analyst Comments-
Israeli forces themselves have claimed “heavy casualties”, but it is not clear as to what Israel considers to be heavy casualties. Though statistics are impossible to verify, the IDF has publicly declared 16 casualties since the invasion of Gaza began. By contrast, roughly 10,000 Palestinian casualties have been reported since the start of this conflict. Note that Palestinian civilian casualties are difficult to discern from Hamas casualties. However, since militants are seeking refuge in long-established tunnels deep underground, the overwhelming majority of casualties in Gaza so far have been civilians.
Rumors are circulating on social media alleging Iran’s direct involvement in the Israeli War is to begin soon. So far, there are few indications that Iran’s actions are anything more than saber-rattling responses to Israel’s actions in Gaza. Most Arab States are preparing for this conflict to escalate, but all of this hinges on Israel’s actions in Gaza. If Israel continues to strike civilian centers, the excuse of Hamas using “human shields” is not an argument that is going to cut it with most of the world. As such, high-profile airstrikes resulting in substantial CIVCAS are likely to warrant a response from Middle Eastern nations that so far, have been biding their time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230001Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223001Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES ADVANCE INTO GAZA. CASUALTIES MOUNT ON ALL SIDES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues to take casualties in their advance on Gaza City as Information Operations from both sides obfuscate the situation on the ground. Demonstrations throughout Israel intensify as Israelis protest in opposition to the invasion of Gaza. So far, most counter-government protests have been swiftly put down by authorities.
In the South, Israeli forces have engaged in a western advance to the sea, and are expected to reach the beach by tomorrow. This maneuver will result in the isolation of Gaza City into a northern pocket, and allow a south-north advance from central Gaza into Gaza City. AC: This will also effectively cut off any evacuation south for the millions of Palestinians who have not been able to leave Gaza City. It is not clear as to if Israel will allow fleeing civilians through their lines to the south, but this is unlikely for now as the situation remains highly dynamic.
Western Asia: Pakistan begins the process of deporting hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees who fled the country following the Taliban takeover two years ago. Last month, Pakistan announced that by Nov 1, all undocumented persons within the country would be deported. An estimated 1.7 million Afghan refugees currently reside in Pakistan and are facing deportation.
-Analyst Comments-
Israeli forces themselves have claimed “heavy casualties”, but it is not clear as to what Israel considers to be heavy casualties. Though statistics are impossible to verify, the IDF has publicly declared 16 casualties since the invasion of Gaza began. By contrast, roughly 10,000 Palestinian casualties have been reported since the start of this conflict. Note that Palestinian civilian casualties are difficult to discern from Hamas casualties. However, since militants are seeking refuge in long-established tunnels deep underground, the overwhelming majority of casualties in Gaza so far have been civilians.
Rumors are circulating on social media alleging Iran’s direct involvement in the Israeli War is to begin soon. So far, there are few indications that Iran’s actions are anything more than saber-rattling responses to Israel’s actions in Gaza. Most Arab States are preparing for this conflict to escalate, but all of this hinges on Israel’s actions in Gaza. If Israel continues to strike civilian centers, the excuse of Hamas using “human shields” is not an argument that is going to cut it with most of the world. As such, high-profile airstrikes resulting in substantial CIVCAS are likely to warrant a response from Middle Eastern nations that so far, have been biding their time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2200Z November 02, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220002Z NOV 23
ICOD: 210002Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAELI ENCIRCLEMENT OF GAZA CITY COMPLETE. YEMENI STRIKES DRAW IRE FROM ARAB STATES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: This morning, Israeli forces in central Gaza reached the Med, completing the encirclement of Gaza City. It is unclear if this encirclement will be effective as the vast majority of Hamas’ combat strength lies underground. Throughout this invasion, many reports detail Hamas militants suddenly appearing in areas that were already cleared, or engaging IDF soldiers from multiple directions. As such the “front line” is likely not as solidified as the IDF would like to believe.
Jordanian and Saudi leaders have expressed concern with Yemen’s efforts to target Israel, as these attacks are carried out through their airspace. Jordan called the attacks “reckless” as Yemen is engaging Israel with extremely long-range cruise missiles in a manner which poses a threat to other Arab nations.
France has stated that they will send additional naval vessels to the region to assist with evacuation efforts and medical care for Palestinians. It is unclear as to which vessels will be sent ATT, though the number of NATO vessels already in theatre is substantial.
-HomeFront-
USA: Multiple strange incidents possibly related to domestic terror attempts have been reported over the past few weeks. Questionable details remain surrounding the Maine shooting and the fate of Robert Card, which have only raised more questions about his previous mental health incidents. Last week an alleged potential mass shooter was found deceased in a restroom at an amusement park in Colorado, with the words “I am not a killer” allegedly etched into the wall beside his body. AC: Though the lack of data results in significant intelligence gaps that don’t allow any substantial analysis of these events, the potential for false-flag operations being extremely high means that any questionable incident cannot be viewed at face value.
-Analyst Comments-
Questions remain about the fate of Palestinians who reside in Gaza City. Any accuracy with regards to casualties is not possible due to the sheer scale of the bombing campaign seen so far. Strikes have changed significant portions of geography making the geolocation of video/photo evidence difficult, and the true casualty count impossible to verify.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220002Z NOV 23
ICOD: 210002Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ISRAELI ENCIRCLEMENT OF GAZA CITY COMPLETE. YEMENI STRIKES DRAW IRE FROM ARAB STATES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: This morning, Israeli forces in central Gaza reached the Med, completing the encirclement of Gaza City. It is unclear if this encirclement will be effective as the vast majority of Hamas’ combat strength lies underground. Throughout this invasion, many reports detail Hamas militants suddenly appearing in areas that were already cleared, or engaging IDF soldiers from multiple directions. As such the “front line” is likely not as solidified as the IDF would like to believe.
Jordanian and Saudi leaders have expressed concern with Yemen’s efforts to target Israel, as these attacks are carried out through their airspace. Jordan called the attacks “reckless” as Yemen is engaging Israel with extremely long-range cruise missiles in a manner which poses a threat to other Arab nations.
France has stated that they will send additional naval vessels to the region to assist with evacuation efforts and medical care for Palestinians. It is unclear as to which vessels will be sent ATT, though the number of NATO vessels already in theatre is substantial.
-HomeFront-
USA: Multiple strange incidents possibly related to domestic terror attempts have been reported over the past few weeks. Questionable details remain surrounding the Maine shooting and the fate of Robert Card, which have only raised more questions about his previous mental health incidents. Last week an alleged potential mass shooter was found deceased in a restroom at an amusement park in Colorado, with the words “I am not a killer” allegedly etched into the wall beside his body. AC: Though the lack of data results in significant intelligence gaps that don’t allow any substantial analysis of these events, the potential for false-flag operations being extremely high means that any questionable incident cannot be viewed at face value.
-Analyst Comments-
Questions remain about the fate of Palestinians who reside in Gaza City. Any accuracy with regards to casualties is not possible due to the sheer scale of the bombing campaign seen so far. Strikes have changed significant portions of geography making the geolocation of video/photo evidence difficult, and the true casualty count impossible to verify.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2330Z November 03, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233003Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223003Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST, HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN GAZA WORSENS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The situation in Northern Gaza remains fluid as the invasion continues. Hamas has made claims that Israeli forces have withdrawn numerous times in response to failed assaults, whereas Israel has not addressed specific engagements during this invasion. The UN reports that the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza is not enough, and fuel shortages in particular have resulted in substantial issues at UN hospitals.
This afternoon, the Pentagon has reportedly suspended all official Congressional flights into Israel citing the deterioration of the security situation on the ground. Dozens of members of Congress have visited Israel via AIPAC-sponsored delegations since the war began.
Pacific: The US conducted a test of the LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBM last night. The test was a failure which resulted in the US Air Force safely terminating the exercise. The last failure of this missile system was in 2021, in which the test was aborted on the ground. The last in-flight failure of this system was in 2018.
-HomeFront-
USA: Domestic threats remain a constant as Pro-Palestine protests/rallies continue around the US. Since hostilities in the Middle East began, many domestic terror groups such as ANTIFA/BLM have been observed to increase hostile online rhetoric, to include direct threats of terrorism.
SC: An assailant tried to breach the perimeter of the Oconee Nuclear Station last night by conducting a vehicle ramming attack on the ECP. After his unsuccessful breach attempt he fled the facility where a local homeowner fired warning shots at him as he attempted to trespass down their driveway, before fleeing again. Local authorities have identified the suspect as Doyle Wayne Whisenhunt, who remains at large. A BOLO notice has been issued for his 2002 Toyota Camry with Arkansas plate: 380-VDR.
-Analyst Comments-
Notes on sources: As Palestinian civilians continue to be targeted by Israeli forces, most of the least-biased information sources on the ground are UN aid workers. Ordinarily the UN would not be considered to be a reliable information source, but in this special circumstance official press statements are the best we can do, as most media on all sides remains agenda-driven. Consequently, UN workers are going to become a primary source for documenting the increasingly desperate humanitarian crisis that has resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees.
If the cessation of official Congressional flights into Israel is true, this is likely related to Hezbollah and/or Hamas increasing usage of MANPADs. So far, several Igla-1 (NATO: SA-18 GROUSE) and Strela-2 (NATO: SA-7 GRAIL) launches have been confirmed by posts on social media. Details on the success of these attacks have been largely unverifiable, though Hamas has claimed to have downed several IDF helicopters and drones.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233003Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223003Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST, HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN GAZA WORSENS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The situation in Northern Gaza remains fluid as the invasion continues. Hamas has made claims that Israeli forces have withdrawn numerous times in response to failed assaults, whereas Israel has not addressed specific engagements during this invasion. The UN reports that the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza is not enough, and fuel shortages in particular have resulted in substantial issues at UN hospitals.
This afternoon, the Pentagon has reportedly suspended all official Congressional flights into Israel citing the deterioration of the security situation on the ground. Dozens of members of Congress have visited Israel via AIPAC-sponsored delegations since the war began.
Pacific: The US conducted a test of the LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBM last night. The test was a failure which resulted in the US Air Force safely terminating the exercise. The last failure of this missile system was in 2021, in which the test was aborted on the ground. The last in-flight failure of this system was in 2018.
-HomeFront-
USA: Domestic threats remain a constant as Pro-Palestine protests/rallies continue around the US. Since hostilities in the Middle East began, many domestic terror groups such as ANTIFA/BLM have been observed to increase hostile online rhetoric, to include direct threats of terrorism.
SC: An assailant tried to breach the perimeter of the Oconee Nuclear Station last night by conducting a vehicle ramming attack on the ECP. After his unsuccessful breach attempt he fled the facility where a local homeowner fired warning shots at him as he attempted to trespass down their driveway, before fleeing again. Local authorities have identified the suspect as Doyle Wayne Whisenhunt, who remains at large. A BOLO notice has been issued for his 2002 Toyota Camry with Arkansas plate: 380-VDR.
-Analyst Comments-
Notes on sources: As Palestinian civilians continue to be targeted by Israeli forces, most of the least-biased information sources on the ground are UN aid workers. Ordinarily the UN would not be considered to be a reliable information source, but in this special circumstance official press statements are the best we can do, as most media on all sides remains agenda-driven. Consequently, UN workers are going to become a primary source for documenting the increasingly desperate humanitarian crisis that has resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees.
If the cessation of official Congressional flights into Israel is true, this is likely related to Hezbollah and/or Hamas increasing usage of MANPADs. So far, several Igla-1 (NATO: SA-18 GROUSE) and Strela-2 (NATO: SA-7 GRAIL) launches have been confirmed by posts on social media. Details on the success of these attacks have been largely unverifiable, though Hamas has claimed to have downed several IDF helicopters and drones.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 1830Z November 04, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183004Z NOV 23
ICOD: 170004Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: RUMORS OF PEACE TALKS IN UKRAINE SURFACE. DOMESTIC US PROTESTS IN SUPPORT OF PALESTINE CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Satellite imagery indicates Israel has made some progress in Northern Gaza, but resistance remains significant. Hamas rocket and mortar attacks continue, and Hamas regularly engages Israeli armor with ATGMs. Israel continues conducting airstrikes in areas that result in substantial CIVCAS, to include refugee camps.
Ukraine: Rumors of peace efforts surface as it becomes socially acceptable to recognize the reality that Ukraine is not likely to meet their military objectives in this war.
-HomeFront-
SC: Doyle Whisenhunt is in custody following his alleged attack on the Oconee Nuclear Station Thursday night. He was found by a local homeowner hiding in a vacant structure.
CA: Protestors in Oakland disrupt the deployment of the M/V CAPE ORLANDO as demonstrators claimed the vessel was tasked to transport arms to Israel. Three protestors who gained access to the ship were detained by the USCG, and the vessel continued its journey to Tacoma, WA.
-Analyst Comments-
Though the protest involving the M/V CAPE ORLANDO is interesting and does highlight the inherent risks to critical infrastructure, this incident also brings to light that an older ship from the mothball fleet was re-activated into active service for the task of supposedly transporting arms to Israel. This is yet another indicator of the quiet increase in military traffic worldwide that is indicative of the US preparing for involvement in a major war.
In the Middle East, information warfare has resulted in not just obfuscating the situation on the ground, but also altering and warping perceptions of all previous warfare doctrine, laws, and regulations. Both sides have sought to justify their actions by using logical fallacies to shape the narrative in their favor, ignoring key facts that are pertinent to the legality of the situation on the ground.
Among Israeli politics, questions persist regarding Israeli intelligence capabilities, and how the lead up to the October 7 attack was a complete intelligence failure…but somehow Israeli intelligence now has forensic evidence beyond reasonable doubt confirming the exact GPS coordinates of Hamas targets to kinetically strike. This contradiction has resulted in domestic complaints, and PM Netanyahu has mentioned that those responsible for the intelligence “failures” on October 7 will be held accountable.
However, social constraints will limit analytical efforts as all sides seek to push their own narrative, making a neutral examination of the evidence undesirable by most people. Consequently, the threats of deplatforming becoming a more direct threat to independent journalists is likely to result in the effects of narrative shaping becoming more serious over time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183004Z NOV 23
ICOD: 170004Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: RUMORS OF PEACE TALKS IN UKRAINE SURFACE. DOMESTIC US PROTESTS IN SUPPORT OF PALESTINE CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Satellite imagery indicates Israel has made some progress in Northern Gaza, but resistance remains significant. Hamas rocket and mortar attacks continue, and Hamas regularly engages Israeli armor with ATGMs. Israel continues conducting airstrikes in areas that result in substantial CIVCAS, to include refugee camps.
Ukraine: Rumors of peace efforts surface as it becomes socially acceptable to recognize the reality that Ukraine is not likely to meet their military objectives in this war.
-HomeFront-
SC: Doyle Whisenhunt is in custody following his alleged attack on the Oconee Nuclear Station Thursday night. He was found by a local homeowner hiding in a vacant structure.
CA: Protestors in Oakland disrupt the deployment of the M/V CAPE ORLANDO as demonstrators claimed the vessel was tasked to transport arms to Israel. Three protestors who gained access to the ship were detained by the USCG, and the vessel continued its journey to Tacoma, WA.
-Analyst Comments-
Though the protest involving the M/V CAPE ORLANDO is interesting and does highlight the inherent risks to critical infrastructure, this incident also brings to light that an older ship from the mothball fleet was re-activated into active service for the task of supposedly transporting arms to Israel. This is yet another indicator of the quiet increase in military traffic worldwide that is indicative of the US preparing for involvement in a major war.
In the Middle East, information warfare has resulted in not just obfuscating the situation on the ground, but also altering and warping perceptions of all previous warfare doctrine, laws, and regulations. Both sides have sought to justify their actions by using logical fallacies to shape the narrative in their favor, ignoring key facts that are pertinent to the legality of the situation on the ground.
Among Israeli politics, questions persist regarding Israeli intelligence capabilities, and how the lead up to the October 7 attack was a complete intelligence failure…but somehow Israeli intelligence now has forensic evidence beyond reasonable doubt confirming the exact GPS coordinates of Hamas targets to kinetically strike. This contradiction has resulted in domestic complaints, and PM Netanyahu has mentioned that those responsible for the intelligence “failures” on October 7 will be held accountable.
However, social constraints will limit analytical efforts as all sides seek to push their own narrative, making a neutral examination of the evidence undesirable by most people. Consequently, the threats of deplatforming becoming a more direct threat to independent journalists is likely to result in the effects of narrative shaping becoming more serious over time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2330Z November 06, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233006Z NOV 23
ICOD: 220006Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. DEMONSTRATIONS ON HOMEFRONT INTENSIFY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli invasion of Gaza continues as before. Jordan begins paradropping aid supplies in Gaza. Egypt reportedly closes Rafah border crossing, no further details on which citizens are allowed to enter Egypt, if any. Rocket attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon have increased in frequency, and have begun to strike deeper into Israel. Israel’s Arrow defense system was reportedly successful in it’s first operational test, intercepting a Yemeni ballistic missile in space for the first time. Yemen has continued to launch a variety of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles toward Israel, prompting US Navy Aegis ships in the Red Sea to intercept the launches.
The International Committee of the Red Cross/Red Crescent and the UN are working to secure a safe evacuation corridor following an Israeli strike on a medical convoy. The IDF claims Hamas fighters were in the convoy, but the UN has denied these claims and is working with the ICRC to provide escorts to prevent future targeting of medical convoys and facilities. So far, attempts at establishing a humanitarian corridor have failed as no mitigating factors (such as the Red Cross or UN paint schemes/flags) have resulted in any sort of protection from strikes.
In politics, Amichay Eliyahu the Minister of Heritage for the Jewish Power Party openly calls for the use of nuclear weapons in Gaza. PM Netayahu suspends Eliyahu based on these comments. AC: Though this rhetoric is extremely concerning, the use of nuclear weapons by Israel in Gaza is unlikely ATT, as traditional conventional weapons have so far been extremely effective in targeting Palestinians.
-HomeFront-
USA: Threats of domestic terrorism remain elevated as Pro-Palestinian protests remain kinetic. So far, large demonstrations have taken place in most US cities. On Friday night, demonstrators caused a riot at the White House. Though riots doctrinally remain low-intensity conflict, the groups that are participating in Pro-Palestine demonstrations are the groups that have demonstrated willingness to carry out more deliberate, targeted attacks. ANTIFA and BLM groups have increased hostile online rhetoric, and have used this opportunity to share tactics and host educational content that instructs members on how to carry out more traditional terror attacks.
-Analyst Comments-
As a reminder, Gaza is one of the most population dense locations on Earth. This differentiates this conflict from those in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria that many Americans have grown weary of. Gaza City, despite being only 18 square miles, has a higher population density than New York City. Israel has claimed to have dropped 6,000 bombs (of roughly 4,000 metric tons worth) within just the first five days of the war, and has been dropping thousands of tons per week since. Almost all of these airstrikes have been in heavily populated areas, leading to the UN claiming a casualty count of over 10,000.
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233006Z NOV 23
ICOD: 220006Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. DEMONSTRATIONS ON HOMEFRONT INTENSIFY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli invasion of Gaza continues as before. Jordan begins paradropping aid supplies in Gaza. Egypt reportedly closes Rafah border crossing, no further details on which citizens are allowed to enter Egypt, if any. Rocket attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon have increased in frequency, and have begun to strike deeper into Israel. Israel’s Arrow defense system was reportedly successful in it’s first operational test, intercepting a Yemeni ballistic missile in space for the first time. Yemen has continued to launch a variety of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles toward Israel, prompting US Navy Aegis ships in the Red Sea to intercept the launches.
The International Committee of the Red Cross/Red Crescent and the UN are working to secure a safe evacuation corridor following an Israeli strike on a medical convoy. The IDF claims Hamas fighters were in the convoy, but the UN has denied these claims and is working with the ICRC to provide escorts to prevent future targeting of medical convoys and facilities. So far, attempts at establishing a humanitarian corridor have failed as no mitigating factors (such as the Red Cross or UN paint schemes/flags) have resulted in any sort of protection from strikes.
In politics, Amichay Eliyahu the Minister of Heritage for the Jewish Power Party openly calls for the use of nuclear weapons in Gaza. PM Netayahu suspends Eliyahu based on these comments. AC: Though this rhetoric is extremely concerning, the use of nuclear weapons by Israel in Gaza is unlikely ATT, as traditional conventional weapons have so far been extremely effective in targeting Palestinians.
-HomeFront-
USA: Threats of domestic terrorism remain elevated as Pro-Palestinian protests remain kinetic. So far, large demonstrations have taken place in most US cities. On Friday night, demonstrators caused a riot at the White House. Though riots doctrinally remain low-intensity conflict, the groups that are participating in Pro-Palestine demonstrations are the groups that have demonstrated willingness to carry out more deliberate, targeted attacks. ANTIFA and BLM groups have increased hostile online rhetoric, and have used this opportunity to share tactics and host educational content that instructs members on how to carry out more traditional terror attacks.
-Analyst Comments-
As a reminder, Gaza is one of the most population dense locations on Earth. This differentiates this conflict from those in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria that many Americans have grown weary of. Gaza City, despite being only 18 square miles, has a higher population density than New York City. Israel has claimed to have dropped 6,000 bombs (of roughly 4,000 metric tons worth) within just the first five days of the war, and has been dropping thousands of tons per week since. Almost all of these airstrikes have been in heavily populated areas, leading to the UN claiming a casualty count of over 10,000.
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Admin Note: The information warfare and speech targeting that we saw during the Ukrainian War does not hold a candle to that which we are seeing as humanity’s oldest and most intense conflict remains kinetic in the Middle East. With the Ukrainian War, most journalists and analysts who failed to support the official narrative were faced with ostracization and the loss of their livelihood. With this conflict, in addition to the constraints of social norms, there are also hate-speech laws that make some observations illegal. In some nations, even a mainstream news article can describe the situation on the ground in the most objective and neutral way possible, and still be considered to be illegal hate speech. Direct quotes from elected officials, when repeated online, can also be viewed the same way by authorities. This complicates analytical work and results in very few open and honest denoscriptions of what is going on, on the ground. As such, not only are most information sources unreliable, but the legal implications of speech are also likely to result in the situation becoming more unclear as the war continues.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2100Z November 07, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 210007Z NOV 23
ICOD: 200007Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: US, RUSSIA WITHDRAW FROM CFE TREATY. NASHVILLE SHOOTER MANIFESTO REVEALS SECURITY RISKS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: The US and Russia have both withdrawn from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). This treaty (among other things) limited the number of troops in the European Theater, in an attempt to provide a barrier to massive troop deployments that may escalate diplomatic tensions. AC: This is a serious deterioration of the diplomatic situation between the US/NATO and Russia.
Middle East Front: A tentative evacuation corridor has been opened along the width of Salah al-Din Road, linking Gaza City with southern Gaza. The IDF has been allowing limited groups of civilians south along this road during limited hours. However, both Hamas and the IDF continue to conduct strikes along this road, making the humanitarian corridor extremely unsafe. So far, it is unclear as to if any UN or ICRC vehicles have attempted to use this corridor yet, which would indicate the safety of this route. Despite this uncertainty many Palestinians try to make their way south, while many more remain in place in Gaza City.
-HomeFront-
USA: The US military continues to prepare for war. Recruiting jobs continue to be heavily pressed on service members, amid the continuance of the years-long recruiting crisis. Ad campaigns for the military have suddenly dropped DEI initiatives, focusing on the traditional demographic for recruiting efforts.
Limited reporting also indicates the DoD has expanded eligibility for CAO programs to include junior officers, warrant officers, and senior NCOs. This is the program that notifies next of kin in the event of a mass casualty or a LSCO. AC: Expanding eligibility of this program indicates either a severe staffing shortage, or the preparation for major casualties, but likely is a combination of both factors.
TN: The Nashville shooter’s manifesto was leaked to independent journalists. Though the content of the leak is incomplete so far, and referenced a 10 minute “video tape” that has not been revealed, the motive of the shooter remains extraordinarily clear. The FBI and all LE involved with the case still maintain that the motive of the shooter is unclear. The Nashville PD is currently investigating the source of the leak and Google, Reddit, and Meta have heavily censored the documents themselves.
-Analyst Comments-
Operationally, the Nashville shooter’s manifesto is worth examination as it directly lists specific motivations for the attack, which are critical Indications and Warnings for other attacks. The shooter meticulously detailed specific items, possessions, ideology, and physical attributes of people who were selected to be targets. The shooter also directly stated hesitance to commit the attack if security was present, and included a check for security personnel in the pre-attack checklist. If LE had released this document immediately, these plans would have given critical insight into the mind and threat profile of similar killers, which may have aided victims of potential copycat attacks, and allowed security personnel to fill gaps in security plans. As is, this document was withheld from the public beyond the scope of LE investigative secrecy for political reasons. The Nashville PD and the FBI directly lied to the public and feigned ignorance of the motive for the attack, concealing security vulnerabilities and targeting information that could have been exploited (and may have been exploited) by other shooters. No LE notice or memo was released warning citizens of these attack vectors, security gaps, or target selection criteria.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 210007Z NOV 23
ICOD: 200007Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: US, RUSSIA WITHDRAW FROM CFE TREATY. NASHVILLE SHOOTER MANIFESTO REVEALS SECURITY RISKS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: The US and Russia have both withdrawn from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). This treaty (among other things) limited the number of troops in the European Theater, in an attempt to provide a barrier to massive troop deployments that may escalate diplomatic tensions. AC: This is a serious deterioration of the diplomatic situation between the US/NATO and Russia.
Middle East Front: A tentative evacuation corridor has been opened along the width of Salah al-Din Road, linking Gaza City with southern Gaza. The IDF has been allowing limited groups of civilians south along this road during limited hours. However, both Hamas and the IDF continue to conduct strikes along this road, making the humanitarian corridor extremely unsafe. So far, it is unclear as to if any UN or ICRC vehicles have attempted to use this corridor yet, which would indicate the safety of this route. Despite this uncertainty many Palestinians try to make their way south, while many more remain in place in Gaza City.
-HomeFront-
USA: The US military continues to prepare for war. Recruiting jobs continue to be heavily pressed on service members, amid the continuance of the years-long recruiting crisis. Ad campaigns for the military have suddenly dropped DEI initiatives, focusing on the traditional demographic for recruiting efforts.
Limited reporting also indicates the DoD has expanded eligibility for CAO programs to include junior officers, warrant officers, and senior NCOs. This is the program that notifies next of kin in the event of a mass casualty or a LSCO. AC: Expanding eligibility of this program indicates either a severe staffing shortage, or the preparation for major casualties, but likely is a combination of both factors.
TN: The Nashville shooter’s manifesto was leaked to independent journalists. Though the content of the leak is incomplete so far, and referenced a 10 minute “video tape” that has not been revealed, the motive of the shooter remains extraordinarily clear. The FBI and all LE involved with the case still maintain that the motive of the shooter is unclear. The Nashville PD is currently investigating the source of the leak and Google, Reddit, and Meta have heavily censored the documents themselves.
-Analyst Comments-
Operationally, the Nashville shooter’s manifesto is worth examination as it directly lists specific motivations for the attack, which are critical Indications and Warnings for other attacks. The shooter meticulously detailed specific items, possessions, ideology, and physical attributes of people who were selected to be targets. The shooter also directly stated hesitance to commit the attack if security was present, and included a check for security personnel in the pre-attack checklist. If LE had released this document immediately, these plans would have given critical insight into the mind and threat profile of similar killers, which may have aided victims of potential copycat attacks, and allowed security personnel to fill gaps in security plans. As is, this document was withheld from the public beyond the scope of LE investigative secrecy for political reasons. The Nashville PD and the FBI directly lied to the public and feigned ignorance of the motive for the attack, concealing security vulnerabilities and targeting information that could have been exploited (and may have been exploited) by other shooters. No LE notice or memo was released warning citizens of these attack vectors, security gaps, or target selection criteria.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2230Z November 08, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223008Z NOV 23
ICOD: 213008Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA AS SUBSTANTIAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: In Germany, the Saxony-Anhalt branch of the far-right (by German standards) Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) political party has been labeled as an extremist group. This designation sets into motion a set of procedures that allows for German law enforcement and intelligence agencies to begin substantial intelligence collection efforts of party members and officials. This move comes one day after the AfD party topped the polls, becoming the most popular political party in this region.
Middle East Front: Yemeni forces reportedly shoot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. NFI ATT.
Gaza: The UN updates the following casualty figures as of November 5th: In Israel, 1,400 people have been killed as a result of Hamas/Hezbollah attacks, and thousands have been wounded. Allegedly a total of 200 people have been taken hostage (however, many have been killed in airstrikes and some have been released). In Palestine, approximately 9,500 people have been killed, and 23,000 wounded mostly resulting from Israeli airstrikes. Included in this figure are 89 UN aid workers. In addition, 2.2 million Palestinians have no access to food, water, or electricity. Concerning displacement, from October 7th until now, tens of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced from their homes.
For Hamas, casualty figures are very difficult to verify. Israel has confirmed that 60 Hamas fighters have been killed, but have referenced potentially thousands more that have been killed without SSE or forensic analysis of remains. Hamas regularly notifies the press of the deaths of fighters, but sometimes references a number without providing names. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has a sophisticated mortuary services division, and regularly releases reliable information on the deaths of militants that is more verifiable. So far, very few Hezbollah casualties have been reported through official channels, but the fighting along the Lebanese border has not been as severe as in Gaza.
South Pacific: Cyberattack causes widespread telecom outage throughout Australia. Reports from the affected telecom provider (Optus) indicate that critical infrastructure was affected severely, in addition to consumer internet connections.
-HomeFront-
PA: Voting machines are currently under investigation as voters reported their votes switching after being cast. The machines were allegedly taken offline following these complaints.
WA: Reports of a suspicious substance found at an election office in Spokane County caused the evacuation of several other election offices. NFI ATT.
TX: This morning explosions and a major fire were reported at a chemical plant in Shepherd, TX. A shelter in place order was issued for the local area, as the fire consumed many hazardous chemicals that were produced by the company such as paint, industrial coatings, and various other HAZMAT that are necessary for POL production facilities. The cause of the incident is not yet confirmed, but the company President stated it likely resulted from a “forklift incident”.
-Analyst Comments-
Election irregularities continue to be a concern for many Americans. Both local and mid-term electoral procedures have not resulted in any reassurances of secure means of participating in the political system. This will remain a substantial concern for most as 2024 approaches.
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223008Z NOV 23
ICOD: 213008Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA AS SUBSTANTIAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: In Germany, the Saxony-Anhalt branch of the far-right (by German standards) Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) political party has been labeled as an extremist group. This designation sets into motion a set of procedures that allows for German law enforcement and intelligence agencies to begin substantial intelligence collection efforts of party members and officials. This move comes one day after the AfD party topped the polls, becoming the most popular political party in this region.
Middle East Front: Yemeni forces reportedly shoot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. NFI ATT.
Gaza: The UN updates the following casualty figures as of November 5th: In Israel, 1,400 people have been killed as a result of Hamas/Hezbollah attacks, and thousands have been wounded. Allegedly a total of 200 people have been taken hostage (however, many have been killed in airstrikes and some have been released). In Palestine, approximately 9,500 people have been killed, and 23,000 wounded mostly resulting from Israeli airstrikes. Included in this figure are 89 UN aid workers. In addition, 2.2 million Palestinians have no access to food, water, or electricity. Concerning displacement, from October 7th until now, tens of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced from their homes.
For Hamas, casualty figures are very difficult to verify. Israel has confirmed that 60 Hamas fighters have been killed, but have referenced potentially thousands more that have been killed without SSE or forensic analysis of remains. Hamas regularly notifies the press of the deaths of fighters, but sometimes references a number without providing names. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has a sophisticated mortuary services division, and regularly releases reliable information on the deaths of militants that is more verifiable. So far, very few Hezbollah casualties have been reported through official channels, but the fighting along the Lebanese border has not been as severe as in Gaza.
South Pacific: Cyberattack causes widespread telecom outage throughout Australia. Reports from the affected telecom provider (Optus) indicate that critical infrastructure was affected severely, in addition to consumer internet connections.
-HomeFront-
PA: Voting machines are currently under investigation as voters reported their votes switching after being cast. The machines were allegedly taken offline following these complaints.
WA: Reports of a suspicious substance found at an election office in Spokane County caused the evacuation of several other election offices. NFI ATT.
TX: This morning explosions and a major fire were reported at a chemical plant in Shepherd, TX. A shelter in place order was issued for the local area, as the fire consumed many hazardous chemicals that were produced by the company such as paint, industrial coatings, and various other HAZMAT that are necessary for POL production facilities. The cause of the incident is not yet confirmed, but the company President stated it likely resulted from a “forklift incident”.
-Analyst Comments-
Election irregularities continue to be a concern for many Americans. Both local and mid-term electoral procedures have not resulted in any reassurances of secure means of participating in the political system. This will remain a substantial concern for most as 2024 approaches.
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Rumors of peace in Ukraine intensify as funding dries up, or is diverted to Israel. The Ukrainian War is too substantial of a war, with too many international actors, to simply remove from the news cycle in the hopes of shifting focus to Israel. However, the capitulation of Ukraine (probably to involve territorial loss due to annexation by Russia) is likely to occur quickly when it does happen. This will likely result in substantial information warfare tactics, as shifting such a large narrative quickly is likely to cause domestic political problems in the US. The narrative of Ukrainian victory has been pushed on the US populace for many years now, but a peace deal is likely to be ironed out within a much shorter time frame. When this hammer drops, it is almost certain to occur before the 2024 election.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2000Z November 09, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 200009Z NOV 23
ICOD: 193009Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. POLITICAL TARGETING RAMPS UP AROUND THE WORLD.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: In Spain, prominent politician Alejo Vidal-Quadras, the founder of the far-right (by Spanish standards) VOX party was shot in the head on the street in Madrid. He remains in critical condition at a local hospital. This incident came a few hours after he tweeted his opposition to the formation of a coalition government between the Socialist Party and the Junts, that allowed for Pedro Sanchez (the leader of the Socialist Party) to remain Prime Minister under the new coalition government.
Middle East Front: President Biden states there is “no possibility” for a ceasefire in Gaza. However, Israel has allegedly implemented a daily 4-hour “humanitarian pause” in which citizens of Gaza City are expected to flee south through the previously described humanitarian corridor. AC: As of right now, it is not clear as to what this “pause” is supposed to do, or if it is the same announcement from a few days ago, as the humanitarian corridor that was established days ago has not resulted in any marked cessation of the targeting of civilians. Israel continues to strike clearly marked UN facilities, hospitals, schools, and aid convoys in and near the pre-established Salah al-Din Road “humanitarian” corridor. Conversely, Hamas remains committed to insurgency-style warfare, complicating the situation on the ground even further.
-HomeFront-
TX: Sarah Fields, a journalist for The Publica, continues to face targeting by the FBI for her journalistic efforts to expose a Hamas training camp that was recently active near the US/Mexico border. Her sources for this reporting are confidential, but allegedly Hamas maintained a sophisticated training camp in Matamoros, Mexico in which militants would receive training before infiltrating across the US border to serve as sleeper agents. This camp was allegedly shut down in 2022. AC: The nature of FBI involvement is reportedly not to obtain more information on this training camp, but to determine how the journalist obtained this information, as well as wanting to know the names of Field’s sources.
-Analyst Comments-
Uncomfortable truths are becoming very difficult to ignore as the war in Gaza remains extremely intense. Atmospherics from within the UN indicate exasperation at the futility of establishing even the most basic humanitarian efforts in Gaza. What is going on in Gaza right now fits the definition of Total War, in which no aspect of a population is spared from the conflict, and unrestricted warfare tactics are the norm. Total War in a Counter-Insurgency (COIN) environment results in mostly civilian casualties. For instance, more civilians have been killed in Gaza in 30 days, than were killed in the past 20 months of the Ukrainian War (per UN data).The failure of a populace to understand this importance and severity is likely to result in no hesitation from political world leaders in continuing this war.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 200009Z NOV 23
ICOD: 193009Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. POLITICAL TARGETING RAMPS UP AROUND THE WORLD.
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-International Events-
European Front: In Spain, prominent politician Alejo Vidal-Quadras, the founder of the far-right (by Spanish standards) VOX party was shot in the head on the street in Madrid. He remains in critical condition at a local hospital. This incident came a few hours after he tweeted his opposition to the formation of a coalition government between the Socialist Party and the Junts, that allowed for Pedro Sanchez (the leader of the Socialist Party) to remain Prime Minister under the new coalition government.
Middle East Front: President Biden states there is “no possibility” for a ceasefire in Gaza. However, Israel has allegedly implemented a daily 4-hour “humanitarian pause” in which citizens of Gaza City are expected to flee south through the previously described humanitarian corridor. AC: As of right now, it is not clear as to what this “pause” is supposed to do, or if it is the same announcement from a few days ago, as the humanitarian corridor that was established days ago has not resulted in any marked cessation of the targeting of civilians. Israel continues to strike clearly marked UN facilities, hospitals, schools, and aid convoys in and near the pre-established Salah al-Din Road “humanitarian” corridor. Conversely, Hamas remains committed to insurgency-style warfare, complicating the situation on the ground even further.
-HomeFront-
TX: Sarah Fields, a journalist for The Publica, continues to face targeting by the FBI for her journalistic efforts to expose a Hamas training camp that was recently active near the US/Mexico border. Her sources for this reporting are confidential, but allegedly Hamas maintained a sophisticated training camp in Matamoros, Mexico in which militants would receive training before infiltrating across the US border to serve as sleeper agents. This camp was allegedly shut down in 2022. AC: The nature of FBI involvement is reportedly not to obtain more information on this training camp, but to determine how the journalist obtained this information, as well as wanting to know the names of Field’s sources.
-Analyst Comments-
Uncomfortable truths are becoming very difficult to ignore as the war in Gaza remains extremely intense. Atmospherics from within the UN indicate exasperation at the futility of establishing even the most basic humanitarian efforts in Gaza. What is going on in Gaza right now fits the definition of Total War, in which no aspect of a population is spared from the conflict, and unrestricted warfare tactics are the norm. Total War in a Counter-Insurgency (COIN) environment results in mostly civilian casualties. For instance, more civilians have been killed in Gaza in 30 days, than were killed in the past 20 months of the Ukrainian War (per UN data).The failure of a populace to understand this importance and severity is likely to result in no hesitation from political world leaders in continuing this war.
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Analyst: S2A
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