RR The Wire 1500Z October 28, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 150028Z OCT 23
ICOD: 140028Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAELI ADVANCE MEETS HEAVY RESISTANCE IN NORTHERN GAZA. REGIONAL PLAYERS BEGIN INTENSIFYING CONFLICT.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Information warfare takes center stage as all sides seek to amplify their gains, and downplay losses. Israeli forces have declared they are jamming much of the EM spectrum and spoofing GPS signals, resulting in some of the most significant EW effects seen in years.
Pro-Palestinian fighters have amassed on the Iraq/Jordan border in substantial numbers. Egyptian and Israeli fighter aircraft have reportedly engaged in foreign relations, with pilots using aggressive maneuvers towards each other over the border/waters between the two countries.
In Lebanon, the US Embassy urges all US citizens to immediately leave the country. Similar travel alerts are routinely being established by most European nations regarding much of the Middle East.
The UN General Assembly adopts a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. In response, Israel’s Ambassador states that “the UN holds not even one ounce of legitimacy”.
Vodafone has announced that they are setting up emergency cell towers in Egypt, on the border with Gaza, with the intent to provide data services for those documenting combat actions within Gaza. Elon Musk requests any aid groups in Gaza to make contact with Starlink services, but as of now no ground terminal in Gaza has requested a satellite link.
-HomeFront-
USA: In Maine, Robert Card found dead following extensive search. Details are extremely limited, but he was reportedly found in a dumpster with two GSW to the head. NFI ATT.
-Analyst Comments-
Despite the sparse flow of information, it is possible that the Israeli advance slowed last night shortly after a multi-pronged assault into northern Gaza.
Hamas, claims the advance was halted due to their defensive efforts. Within a few minutes of this announcement, Israeli pundits/influencers claimed the halt in the North was voluntary, and that the “real attack” will occur at a different time and place. After a few hours, IDF officials have claimed that the start of the military operation has not yet been declared. Either way, speed will likely not be a deciding factor in this fight, and though video evidence indicates extremely intense fighting the losses from either side are not known.
None of the claims by either side will likely be verified within time for operational success to practically be gauged. By the time information becomes verified, it is Overcome by Events (OBE) and no longer relevant. What is more clear is that multiple assaults on Gaza are ongoing, and that statements from IDF officials claiming the assault hasn’t begun yet are likely gaslighting attempts intended to save face resulting from losses taken by heavy resistance. Amphibious landings have occurred in the West and armored and infantry advances in the North, East, and South. If this “not-yet-begun” conflict is a feint or a ruse, it is unclear as to where the “real” attack will take place, as Gaza is already being engaged on all fronts.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2300Z October 30, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230030Z OCT 23
ICOD: 223030Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: FEW DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING GAZA GROUND INVASION. ISRAEL CONTINUES TARGETING IN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli invasion of Gaza continues with little information regarding the progress of the advance. Information from the Palestinians has slowed to a crawl following comms blackouts, the lack of electricity, airstrikes, etc. Hamas has allegedly been engaged in significant combat actions in the North, though details from the front are not clear ATT. Hamas rocket attacks have remained fairly constant since the beginning of this war, but have increased in number immediately following substantial Israeli strikes, or strikes on facilities that would ordinarily be considered CAT 1 NSE (hospitals, schools, Mosques, community centers, etc).
This morning, Wikileaks released leaked internal IDF documents that suggest Israel is planning to expel the entire Palestinian population from Gaza, to be resettled in the Egyptian Sinai. Though these documents cannot be independently verified with 100% certainty ATT, these very early reports corroborate earlier analysis that indicates Israel is not seeking to stop at the destruction of Hamas, but is actually invested in the removal of all civilian Palestinians from Gaza.
-HomeFront-
USA: In Maine, the circumstances regarding the death of Robert Card remain unclear. Since the finding of his body, much information in the public sphere has been speculatory. Initial reports that Card suffered two GSW to the head remain unprovable. However, as authorities have total control over evidence Chain of Custody, and since authorities have not released any substantial details at all, MSM reporting remains the only sources for most of the information that is public.
-Analyst Comments-
As the Israeli war in Gaza continues, much of the media coverage has focused on atrocity, with both sides seeking to dominate the information space. As such, knowledge of how military targeting works would be beneficial for making informed decisions.
Per JP 3-60, most western nations that abide by US Targeting doctrine are prohibited from striking hospitals, even if used by enemy forces. The Deliberate Targeting process comprises most of US kinetic targeting, and is a rigid data-centric process to ensure legal military targets are struck in accordance with military law. The Dynamic targeting process is an expedited process to be used mostly in situations of immediate self-defense, but is no less legally binding (and is limited in scope to only the munition required for self-defense). Israel is abiding by neither of these processes, and is striking targets that if held to current US military law, are illegal. Population density and the intricacies of point mensuration to develop Joint Desired Points of Impact (JDPIs) in the urban environment, mean that very few of Israel’s strikes conform to US or NATO law. Considering the US and NATO’s overwhelming support for Israel, and the assembly one of the largest military flotillas in NATO history throughout the region, this is an important factor to remember. Hamas, on the other hand, continues to adhere to an insurgent-style model, and does not possess any significant technology that would result in precision targeting. Hamas’ rocket attacks using unguided munitions, are by definition indiscriminate.

Regarding the Maine shooting and the fate of Robert Card, several MSM reports have quietly changed the headline of “two-GSW to the head” to “self-inflicted GSW”, indicating a quiet retraction of this crucial detail. In any case, the public is unlikely to know the truth of Card’s death, which is unfortunate considering the long trail of evidence suggesting Card’s actions were exceptionally predictable, and that he had previously been under investigation for potentially being a mass shooter. The only fact that remains certain is that Robert Card is deceased, and he was a person of interest with regards to the Maine shooting.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2300Z October 31, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230031Z OCT 23
ICOD: 223031Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: YEMENI ATTACKS ON ISRAEL INTENSIFY. ISRAEL TAKES HEAVY CASUALTIES, MAKES SLOW PROGRESS IN NORTHERN GAZA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The first few days of the Israeli invasion of Gaza have resulted in fierce resistance, and slow progress. Video evidence indicates Hamas has regularly and effectively targeted Israeli MBTs, IFVs, and APCs during the advance. Israeli DM Gallant confirms via press conference that IDF has suffered heavy losses, though the exact numbers of casualties/losses is unknown.
Missile attacks from Yemen have increased following the declaration of War issued by the rebel-held government sector. It is difficult to determine the effectiveness (or existence) of many of these extremely long-range attacks; many reports of random missile impacts in Israel have been reported without any indication of a point of origin.
Earlier today, IDF officials claimed responsibility for a substantial airstrike on the Jabalia Refugee Camp in Northern Gaza. IDF officials claim the strike was targeting one Hamas leader, and many civilian casualties have been reported.
Elon Musk’s claims of Starlink support for Gaza backtrack as he claims that Starlink will only be provided for Gaza after investigation and permission from the US and Israel is granted. It is unclear as to if connections and internet traffic will be monitored by Starlink to ensure that their services are only being used for humanitarian purposes. AC: Based on these conditions, in the remote chance someone has Starlink in Gaza, it is extraordinarily unlikely to be allowed to function. For information exchange, infrastructure that does not rely on Israeli or American resources would be the most reliable form of communication in and out of Gaza.
-Analyst Comments-
Israel’s battle plan appears to be centered around an invasion of Northern Gaza on all fronts, followed by a southern push to the Sinai. Whether or not Israel will be able to obtain these goals is unclear, as overwhelming rhetoric from Israeli officials has attempted to temper expectations and prepare for a long campaign. Per long-standing Israeli defense doctrine, Israel is likely expecting long-term logistical support from the US, as the IDF has already expended substantial munitions in this war so far. Per IDF officials the Iron Dome missile supply is running low, resulting in prioritizing defensive coverage of heavily populated areas.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2300Z November 01, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230001Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223001Z NOV 23
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BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES ADVANCE INTO GAZA. CASUALTIES MOUNT ON ALL SIDES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues to take casualties in their advance on Gaza City as Information Operations from both sides obfuscate the situation on the ground. Demonstrations throughout Israel intensify as Israelis protest in opposition to the invasion of Gaza. So far, most counter-government protests have been swiftly put down by authorities.
In the South, Israeli forces have engaged in a western advance to the sea, and are expected to reach the beach by tomorrow. This maneuver will result in the isolation of Gaza City into a northern pocket, and allow a south-north advance from central Gaza into Gaza City. AC: This will also effectively cut off any evacuation south for the millions of Palestinians who have not been able to leave Gaza City. It is not clear as to if Israel will allow fleeing civilians through their lines to the south, but this is unlikely for now as the situation remains highly dynamic.
Western Asia: Pakistan begins the process of deporting hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees who fled the country following the Taliban takeover two years ago. Last month, Pakistan announced that by Nov 1, all undocumented persons within the country would be deported. An estimated 1.7 million Afghan refugees currently reside in Pakistan and are facing deportation.
-Analyst Comments-
Israeli forces themselves have claimed “heavy casualties”, but it is not clear as to what Israel considers to be heavy casualties. Though statistics are impossible to verify, the IDF has publicly declared 16 casualties since the invasion of Gaza began. By contrast, roughly 10,000 Palestinian casualties have been reported since the start of this conflict. Note that Palestinian civilian casualties are difficult to discern from Hamas casualties. However, since militants are seeking refuge in long-established tunnels deep underground, the overwhelming majority of casualties in Gaza so far have been civilians.
Rumors are circulating on social media alleging Iran’s direct involvement in the Israeli War is to begin soon. So far, there are few indications that Iran’s actions are anything more than saber-rattling responses to Israel’s actions in Gaza. Most Arab States are preparing for this conflict to escalate, but all of this hinges on Israel’s actions in Gaza. If Israel continues to strike civilian centers, the excuse of Hamas using “human shields” is not an argument that is going to cut it with most of the world. As such, high-profile airstrikes resulting in substantial CIVCAS are likely to warrant a response from Middle Eastern nations that so far, have been biding their time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z November 02, 2023

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DTG: 220002Z NOV 23
ICOD: 210002Z NOV 23
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BLUF: ISRAELI ENCIRCLEMENT OF GAZA CITY COMPLETE. YEMENI STRIKES DRAW IRE FROM ARAB STATES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: This morning, Israeli forces in central Gaza reached the Med, completing the encirclement of Gaza City. It is unclear if this encirclement will be effective as the vast majority of Hamas’ combat strength lies underground. Throughout this invasion, many reports detail Hamas militants suddenly appearing in areas that were already cleared, or engaging IDF soldiers from multiple directions. As such the “front line” is likely not as solidified as the IDF would like to believe.
Jordanian and Saudi leaders have expressed concern with Yemen’s efforts to target Israel, as these attacks are carried out through their airspace. Jordan called the attacks “reckless” as Yemen is engaging Israel with extremely long-range cruise missiles in a manner which poses a threat to other Arab nations.
France has stated that they will send additional naval vessels to the region to assist with evacuation efforts and medical care for Palestinians. It is unclear as to which vessels will be sent ATT, though the number of NATO vessels already in theatre is substantial.
-HomeFront-
USA: Multiple strange incidents possibly related to domestic terror attempts have been reported over the past few weeks. Questionable details remain surrounding the Maine shooting and the fate of Robert Card, which have only raised more questions about his previous mental health incidents. Last week an alleged potential mass shooter was found deceased in a restroom at an amusement park in Colorado, with the words “I am not a killer” allegedly etched into the wall beside his body. AC: Though the lack of data results in significant intelligence gaps that don’t allow any substantial analysis of these events, the potential for false-flag operations being extremely high means that any questionable incident cannot be viewed at face value.
-Analyst Comments-
Questions remain about the fate of Palestinians who reside in Gaza City. Any accuracy with regards to casualties is not possible due to the sheer scale of the bombing campaign seen so far. Strikes have changed significant portions of geography making the geolocation of video/photo evidence difficult, and the true casualty count impossible to verify.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z November 03, 2023

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DTG: 233003Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223003Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST, HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN GAZA WORSENS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: The situation in Northern Gaza remains fluid as the invasion continues. Hamas has made claims that Israeli forces have withdrawn numerous times in response to failed assaults, whereas Israel has not addressed specific engagements during this invasion. The UN reports that the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza is not enough, and fuel shortages in particular have resulted in substantial issues at UN hospitals.
This afternoon, the Pentagon has reportedly suspended all official Congressional flights into Israel citing the deterioration of the security situation on the ground. Dozens of members of Congress have visited Israel via AIPAC-sponsored delegations since the war began.
Pacific: The US conducted a test of the LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBM last night. The test was a failure which resulted in the US Air Force safely terminating the exercise. The last failure of this missile system was in 2021, in which the test was aborted on the ground. The last in-flight failure of this system was in 2018.
-HomeFront-
USA: Domestic threats remain a constant as Pro-Palestine protests/rallies continue around the US. Since hostilities in the Middle East began, many domestic terror groups such as ANTIFA/BLM have been observed to increase hostile online rhetoric, to include direct threats of terrorism.
SC: An assailant tried to breach the perimeter of the Oconee Nuclear Station last night by conducting a vehicle ramming attack on the ECP. After his unsuccessful breach attempt he fled the facility where a local homeowner fired warning shots at him as he attempted to trespass down their driveway, before fleeing again. Local authorities have identified the suspect as Doyle Wayne Whisenhunt, who remains at large. A BOLO notice has been issued for his 2002 Toyota Camry with Arkansas plate: 380-VDR.
-Analyst Comments-
Notes on sources: As Palestinian civilians continue to be targeted by Israeli forces, most of the least-biased information sources on the ground are UN aid workers. Ordinarily the UN would not be considered to be a reliable information source, but in this special circumstance official press statements are the best we can do, as most media on all sides remains agenda-driven. Consequently, UN workers are going to become a primary source for documenting the increasingly desperate humanitarian crisis that has resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees.
If the cessation of official Congressional flights into Israel is true, this is likely related to Hezbollah and/or Hamas increasing usage of MANPADs. So far, several Igla-1 (NATO: SA-18 GROUSE) and Strela-2 (NATO: SA-7 GRAIL) launches have been confirmed by posts on social media. Details on the success of these attacks have been largely unverifiable, though Hamas has claimed to have downed several IDF helicopters and drones.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1830Z November 04, 2023

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DTG: 183004Z NOV 23
ICOD: 170004Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: RUMORS OF PEACE TALKS IN UKRAINE SURFACE. DOMESTIC US PROTESTS IN SUPPORT OF PALESTINE CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Satellite imagery indicates Israel has made some progress in Northern Gaza, but resistance remains significant. Hamas rocket and mortar attacks continue, and Hamas regularly engages Israeli armor with ATGMs. Israel continues conducting airstrikes in areas that result in substantial CIVCAS, to include refugee camps.
Ukraine: Rumors of peace efforts surface as it becomes socially acceptable to recognize the reality that Ukraine is not likely to meet their military objectives in this war.
-HomeFront-
SC: Doyle Whisenhunt is in custody following his alleged attack on the Oconee Nuclear Station Thursday night. He was found by a local homeowner hiding in a vacant structure.
CA: Protestors in Oakland disrupt the deployment of the M/V CAPE ORLANDO as demonstrators claimed the vessel was tasked to transport arms to Israel. Three protestors who gained access to the ship were detained by the USCG, and the vessel continued its journey to Tacoma, WA.
-Analyst Comments-
Though the protest involving the M/V CAPE ORLANDO is interesting and does highlight the inherent risks to critical infrastructure, this incident also brings to light that an older ship from the mothball fleet was re-activated into active service for the task of supposedly transporting arms to Israel. This is yet another indicator of the quiet increase in military traffic worldwide that is indicative of the US preparing for involvement in a major war.
In the Middle East, information warfare has resulted in not just obfuscating the situation on the ground, but also altering and warping perceptions of all previous warfare doctrine, laws, and regulations. Both sides have sought to justify their actions by using logical fallacies to shape the narrative in their favor, ignoring key facts that are pertinent to the legality of the situation on the ground.
Among Israeli politics, questions persist regarding Israeli intelligence capabilities, and how the lead up to the October 7 attack was a complete intelligence failure…but somehow Israeli intelligence now has forensic evidence beyond reasonable doubt confirming the exact GPS coordinates of Hamas targets to kinetically strike. This contradiction has resulted in domestic complaints, and PM Netanyahu has mentioned that those responsible for the intelligence “failures” on October 7 will be held accountable.
However, social constraints will limit analytical efforts as all sides seek to push their own narrative, making a neutral examination of the evidence undesirable by most people. Consequently, the threats of deplatforming becoming a more direct threat to independent journalists is likely to result in the effects of narrative shaping becoming more serious over time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z November 06, 2023

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DTG: 233006Z NOV 23
ICOD: 220006Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. DEMONSTRATIONS ON HOMEFRONT INTENSIFY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israeli invasion of Gaza continues as before. Jordan begins paradropping aid supplies in Gaza. Egypt reportedly closes Rafah border crossing, no further details on which citizens are allowed to enter Egypt, if any. Rocket attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon have increased in frequency, and have begun to strike deeper into Israel. Israel’s Arrow defense system was reportedly successful in it’s first operational test, intercepting a Yemeni ballistic missile in space for the first time. Yemen has continued to launch a variety of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles toward Israel, prompting US Navy Aegis ships in the Red Sea to intercept the launches.
The International Committee of the Red Cross/Red Crescent and the UN are working to secure a safe evacuation corridor following an Israeli strike on a medical convoy. The IDF claims Hamas fighters were in the convoy, but the UN has denied these claims and is working with the ICRC to provide escorts to prevent future targeting of medical convoys and facilities. So far, attempts at establishing a humanitarian corridor have failed as no mitigating factors (such as the Red Cross or UN paint schemes/flags) have resulted in any sort of protection from strikes.
In politics, Amichay Eliyahu the Minister of Heritage for the Jewish Power Party openly calls for the use of nuclear weapons in Gaza. PM Netayahu suspends Eliyahu based on these comments. AC: Though this rhetoric is extremely concerning, the use of nuclear weapons by Israel in Gaza is unlikely ATT, as traditional conventional weapons have so far been extremely effective in targeting Palestinians.
-HomeFront-
USA: Threats of domestic terrorism remain elevated as Pro-Palestinian protests remain kinetic. So far, large demonstrations have taken place in most US cities. On Friday night, demonstrators caused a riot at the White House. Though riots doctrinally remain low-intensity conflict, the groups that are participating in Pro-Palestine demonstrations are the groups that have demonstrated willingness to carry out more deliberate, targeted attacks. ANTIFA and BLM groups have increased hostile online rhetoric, and have used this opportunity to share tactics and host educational content that instructs members on how to carry out more traditional terror attacks.
-Analyst Comments-
As a reminder, Gaza is one of the most population dense locations on Earth. This differentiates this conflict from those in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria that many Americans have grown weary of. Gaza City, despite being only 18 square miles, has a higher population density than New York City. Israel has claimed to have dropped 6,000 bombs (of roughly 4,000 metric tons worth) within just the first five days of the war, and has been dropping thousands of tons per week since. Almost all of these airstrikes have been in heavily populated areas, leading to the UN claiming a casualty count of over 10,000.

Admin Note: The information warfare and speech targeting that we saw during the Ukrainian War does not hold a candle to that which we are seeing as humanity’s oldest and most intense conflict remains kinetic in the Middle East. With the Ukrainian War, most journalists and analysts who failed to support the official narrative were faced with ostracization and the loss of their livelihood. With this conflict, in addition to the constraints of social norms, there are also hate-speech laws that make some observations illegal. In some nations, even a mainstream news article can describe the situation on the ground in the most objective and neutral way possible, and still be considered to be illegal hate speech. Direct quotes from elected officials, when repeated online, can also be viewed the same way by authorities. This complicates analytical work and results in very few open and honest denoscriptions of what is going on, on the ground. As such, not only are most information sources unreliable, but the legal implications of speech are also likely to result in the situation becoming more unclear as the war continues.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2100Z November 07, 2023

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DTG: 210007Z NOV 23
ICOD: 200007Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: US, RUSSIA WITHDRAW FROM CFE TREATY. NASHVILLE SHOOTER MANIFESTO REVEALS SECURITY RISKS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: The US and Russia have both withdrawn from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). This treaty (among other things) limited the number of troops in the European Theater, in an attempt to provide a barrier to massive troop deployments that may escalate diplomatic tensions. AC: This is a serious deterioration of the diplomatic situation between the US/NATO and Russia.
Middle East Front: A tentative evacuation corridor has been opened along the width of Salah al-Din Road, linking Gaza City with southern Gaza. The IDF has been allowing limited groups of civilians south along this road during limited hours. However, both Hamas and the IDF continue to conduct strikes along this road, making the humanitarian corridor extremely unsafe. So far, it is unclear as to if any UN or ICRC vehicles have attempted to use this corridor yet, which would indicate the safety of this route. Despite this uncertainty many Palestinians try to make their way south, while many more remain in place in Gaza City.
-HomeFront-
USA: The US military continues to prepare for war. Recruiting jobs continue to be heavily pressed on service members, amid the continuance of the years-long recruiting crisis. Ad campaigns for the military have suddenly dropped DEI initiatives, focusing on the traditional demographic for recruiting efforts.
Limited reporting also indicates the DoD has expanded eligibility for CAO programs to include junior officers, warrant officers, and senior NCOs. This is the program that notifies next of kin in the event of a mass casualty or a LSCO. AC: Expanding eligibility of this program indicates either a severe staffing shortage, or the preparation for major casualties, but likely is a combination of both factors.
TN: The Nashville shooter’s manifesto was leaked to independent journalists. Though the content of the leak is incomplete so far, and referenced a 10 minute “video tape” that has not been revealed, the motive of the shooter remains extraordinarily clear. The FBI and all LE involved with the case still maintain that the motive of the shooter is unclear. The Nashville PD is currently investigating the source of the leak and Google, Reddit, and Meta have heavily censored the documents themselves.
-Analyst Comments-
Operationally, the Nashville shooter’s manifesto is worth examination as it directly lists specific motivations for the attack, which are critical Indications and Warnings for other attacks. The shooter meticulously detailed specific items, possessions, ideology, and physical attributes of people who were selected to be targets. The shooter also directly stated hesitance to commit the attack if security was present, and included a check for security personnel in the pre-attack checklist. If LE had released this document immediately, these plans would have given critical insight into the mind and threat profile of similar killers, which may have aided victims of potential copycat attacks, and allowed security personnel to fill gaps in security plans. As is, this document was withheld from the public beyond the scope of LE investigative secrecy for political reasons. The Nashville PD and the FBI directly lied to the public and feigned ignorance of the motive for the attack, concealing security vulnerabilities and targeting information that could have been exploited (and may have been exploited) by other shooters. No LE notice or memo was released warning citizens of these attack vectors, security gaps, or target selection criteria.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z November 08, 2023
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DTG: 223008Z NOV 23
ICOD: 213008Z NOV 23
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BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA AS SUBSTANTIAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: In Germany, the Saxony-Anhalt branch of the far-right (by German standards) Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) political party has been labeled as an extremist group. This designation sets into motion a set of procedures that allows for German law enforcement and intelligence agencies to begin substantial intelligence collection efforts of party members and officials. This move comes one day after the AfD party topped the polls, becoming the most popular political party in this region.
Middle East Front: Yemeni forces reportedly shoot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. NFI ATT.
Gaza: The UN updates the following casualty figures as of November 5th: In Israel, 1,400 people have been killed as a result of Hamas/Hezbollah attacks, and thousands have been wounded. Allegedly a total of 200 people have been taken hostage (however, many have been killed in airstrikes and some have been released). In Palestine, approximately 9,500 people have been killed, and 23,000 wounded mostly resulting from Israeli airstrikes. Included in this figure are 89 UN aid workers. In addition, 2.2 million Palestinians have no access to food, water, or electricity. Concerning displacement, from October 7th until now, tens of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced from their homes.
For Hamas, casualty figures are very difficult to verify. Israel has confirmed that 60 Hamas fighters have been killed, but have referenced potentially thousands more that have been killed without SSE or forensic analysis of remains. Hamas regularly notifies the press of the deaths of fighters, but sometimes references a number without providing names. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has a sophisticated mortuary services division, and regularly releases reliable information on the deaths of militants that is more verifiable. So far, very few Hezbollah casualties have been reported through official channels, but the fighting along the Lebanese border has not been as severe as in Gaza.
South Pacific: Cyberattack causes widespread telecom outage throughout Australia. Reports from the affected telecom provider (Optus) indicate that critical infrastructure was affected severely, in addition to consumer internet connections.
-HomeFront-
PA: Voting machines are currently under investigation as voters reported their votes switching after being cast. The machines were allegedly taken offline following these complaints.
WA: Reports of a suspicious substance found at an election office in Spokane County caused the evacuation of several other election offices. NFI ATT.
TX: This morning explosions and a major fire were reported at a chemical plant in Shepherd, TX. A shelter in place order was issued for the local area, as the fire consumed many hazardous chemicals that were produced by the company such as paint, industrial coatings, and various other HAZMAT that are necessary for POL production facilities. The cause of the incident is not yet confirmed, but the company President stated it likely resulted from a “forklift incident”.
-Analyst Comments-
Election irregularities continue to be a concern for many Americans. Both local and mid-term electoral procedures have not resulted in any reassurances of secure means of participating in the political system. This will remain a substantial concern for most as 2024 approaches.

Rumors of peace in Ukraine intensify as funding dries up, or is diverted to Israel. The Ukrainian War is too substantial of a war, with too many international actors, to simply remove from the news cycle in the hopes of shifting focus to Israel. However, the capitulation of Ukraine (probably to involve territorial loss due to annexation by Russia) is likely to occur quickly when it does happen. This will likely result in substantial information warfare tactics, as shifting such a large narrative quickly is likely to cause domestic political problems in the US. The narrative of Ukrainian victory has been pushed on the US populace for many years now, but a peace deal is likely to be ironed out within a much shorter time frame. When this hammer drops, it is almost certain to occur before the 2024 election.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2000Z November 09, 2023
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DTG: 200009Z NOV 23
ICOD: 193009Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. POLITICAL TARGETING RAMPS UP AROUND THE WORLD.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: In Spain, prominent politician Alejo Vidal-Quadras, the founder of the far-right (by Spanish standards) VOX party was shot in the head on the street in Madrid. He remains in critical condition at a local hospital. This incident came a few hours after he tweeted his opposition to the formation of a coalition government between the Socialist Party and the Junts, that allowed for Pedro Sanchez (the leader of the Socialist Party) to remain Prime Minister under the new coalition government.
Middle East Front: President Biden states there is “no possibility” for a ceasefire in Gaza. However, Israel has allegedly implemented a daily 4-hour “humanitarian pause” in which citizens of Gaza City are expected to flee south through the previously described humanitarian corridor. AC: As of right now, it is not clear as to what this “pause” is supposed to do, or if it is the same announcement from a few days ago, as the humanitarian corridor that was established days ago has not resulted in any marked cessation of the targeting of civilians. Israel continues to strike clearly marked UN facilities, hospitals, schools, and aid convoys in and near the pre-established Salah al-Din Road “humanitarian” corridor. Conversely, Hamas remains committed to insurgency-style warfare, complicating the situation on the ground even further.
-HomeFront-
TX: Sarah Fields, a journalist for The Publica, continues to face targeting by the FBI for her journalistic efforts to expose a Hamas training camp that was recently active near the US/Mexico border. Her sources for this reporting are confidential, but allegedly Hamas maintained a sophisticated training camp in Matamoros, Mexico in which militants would receive training before infiltrating across the US border to serve as sleeper agents. This camp was allegedly shut down in 2022. AC: The nature of FBI involvement is reportedly not to obtain more information on this training camp, but to determine how the journalist obtained this information, as well as wanting to know the names of Field’s sources.
-Analyst Comments-
Uncomfortable truths are becoming very difficult to ignore as the war in Gaza remains extremely intense. Atmospherics from within the UN indicate exasperation at the futility of establishing even the most basic humanitarian efforts in Gaza. What is going on in Gaza right now fits the definition of Total War, in which no aspect of a population is spared from the conflict, and unrestricted warfare tactics are the norm. Total War in a Counter-Insurgency (COIN) environment results in mostly civilian casualties. For instance, more civilians have been killed in Gaza in 30 days, than were killed in the past 20 months of the Ukrainian War (per UN data).The failure of a populace to understand this importance and severity is likely to result in no hesitation from political world leaders in continuing this war.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z November 10, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213010Z NOV 23
ICOD: 203010Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ELECTORAL IRREGULARITIES REMAIN CONSTANT. TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH IN EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: Large scale protests break out in response to the shooting of VOX party leader Alejo Vidal-Quadras yesterday. AC: Though separate issues, these protests are difficult to distinguish from Pro-Palestine protests, which continue to be daily occurrences throughout most of Europe.
Middle East Front: Israel continues consolidating the pocket in Northern Gaza, and has made limited gains south, along the coast. The IDF continues to strengthen the salient to the sea in central Gaza. Airstrikes continue along the humanitarian corridor on Salah al-Din Road. It is currently unclear as to how many citizens are successfully passing through this corridor.
-HomeFront-
WA: Additional details emerge regarding the incidents at election offices on Wednesday. A series of suspicious letters were sent to multiple election offices, some of which contained a white powder substance. In the letter sent to Spokane County, the substance was identified as fentanyl. In the letter sent to Pierce County, the substance was baking soda. In addition to the letters sent in Washington, the FBI has indicated that letters were also received at election facilities in Oregon, California, Nevada, and Georgia. All of the letters reportedly included direct threats to election drop boxes, and contained general sentiments calling for the removal of elections. In the Pierce County letter (the only one released to the public so far) several ANTIFA symbols, verbiage, and slogans were present in the text.
NJ: J6 participant Gregory Yetman is in custody following a multi-day manhunt that resulted from the FBI being unable to locate him to serve a warrant for his presence at the events at the US Capitol on J6. AC: Yetman was reportedly not part of initial J6 targeting. In March, USA Today doxed him based on photographs and open-source methods, which resulted in targeting by the FBI. It is important to note that per USA Today’s own reporting, Yetman had already been identified and interrogated by the FBI for his actions on J6, with no charges being filed. This new manhunt appears to not be based on any new evidence, but rather the direct result of media corporations heavily influencing the FBI.
-Analyst Comments-
Election targeting will likely continue as before, as evidence of electoral irregularities becomes a norm. More direct election harassment from independent groups is extremely likely as 2024 approaches.
Since J6, thousands of “journalists” have been combing tens of thousands of photos in an attempt to aid federal investigators, and even prompt investigations where none existed prior. Over 1,000 arrests have been made, and continue to be made as more citizens become identified via official investigations, or via doxing by media companies.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1530Z November 11, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 153011Z NOV 23
ICOD: 143011Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MOODY’S DOWNGRADES ASSESSMENT OF US ECONOMY. PROTESTS CONTINUE WORLDWIDE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: Throughout the continent, protests, demonstrations, and riots continue related to a variety of issues. Protests and demonstrations increase in severity in Spain as citizens continue to express dissatisfaction with the ruling Socialist party. Protests in the U.K. continue in support of Palestine, but counterprotests also continue regarding the migrant crisis, and subsequently the flood of immigrants from the Middle East and Africa.
Middle East Front: Disclosure of IDF casualties has essentially come to a halt, with no new data for the past several days. The Ministry of Health in Gaza claims the casualty count has reached 11,078 deaths, 4,506 of which are children. AC: This figure has not yet been corroborated with the UN or third party NGOs.
-HomeFront-
USA: Moody’s Corporation downgrades US economic rating from “stable” to “negative”, citing increasing debt and “continued political polarization” in Congress. AC: This is not necessarily an indicator of immediate financial collapse, but is rather the public admission of a declining economy, which in turn is fairly obvious to anyone who makes or spends income in the US. Moody’s is the third and final financial rating agency to downgrade the US’s economic status from the top ratings the US had enjoyed for decades.
CA: In Los Angeles, a chemical spill impacts 33 people, hospitalizing one. Initial reports were that the spill involved a 55 gallon drum filled with ammonia, but as of this report the contents of the drum are not yet confirmed.
-Analyst Comments-
On social media, much of the discourse surrounding the conflict in Gaza has effectively been discouraged. Hamas has published many videos showing ATGM attacks on tanks, so the IDF’s hesitance to admit to casualties is a strong indicator that casualties are likely higher than anticipated. Conversely, Israel’s encirclement of Gaza City (and the subsequent logistical isolation) are likely to result in substantial Hamas losses as the northern pocket is consolidated.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1530Z November 13, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 153013Z NOV 23
ICOD: 143013Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. DOMESTIC U.S. CRIME INTENSIFIES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Various militant groups continue rocket and drone attacks on US military bases in Iraq and Syria. In northern Israel, attacks by Hezbollah intensify following the continued Israeli advance on Gaza City. AC: At this point, Hezbollah seems to be involved to the point of effectively opening up a second front for Israel. Attacks by Hezbollah are regular and deliberate, as are Israeli strikes into Lebanon.
In the Eastern Med, Five US military personnel were killed in a helicopter crash during a routine aerial refueling training exercise. Most details of this event have not been disclosed to the public ATT.
-HomeFront-
USA: Domestically, crime and social violence remain major concerns for many Americans following several high-profile incidents.
NV: Las Vegas teenager Jonathan Lewis succumbed to his wounds after being severely beaten by other students near his high school on Nov 1. AC: Lewis was beaten to death by a mob of black students for defending another boy who was being assaulted by the same group. No arrests have been made.
NY: John Rote has been arrested following his defense of a woman being mugged on the NYC subway system. Rote fired two warning shots at the mugger (which did not result in the mugger leaving), stalling for time to allow the victim to escape. The shooting prompted a statement by Transit official Richard Davey, who said “we don’t tolerate this kind of conduct in NYC Transit, period”.
NCR: US Secret Service agents protecting Naomi Biden engaged three carjackers in Georgetown as they attempted to break into their unmarked Secret Service vehicle. None of the attackers were hit, and all three evaded capture. AC: This incident appears to be the result of routine street crime rather than any deliberate targeting attempt.
CA: General Secretary of the CCP, Xi Jinping, conducts a State visit to CA in advance of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit. AC: Though the diplomatic visit is more indicative of international atmospherics, local citizens have been focused on the preparations for this visit, rather than the Summit itself. CA officials and LE have removed major homeless encampments in San Francisco, after years of these camps serving as a central point of friction among citizens. These encampments have resulted in many CA cities becoming infamous for the dystopian landscapes that have spread over virtually every sidewalk and public place.
-Analyst Comments-
Regarding the NYC subway mugging incident, statements by officials have all been in condemnation of Rote’s use of a firearm, not the mugging. Rote was identified and turned in by a friend who recognized him from security footage. The victim of the mugging, who remains unidentified, spoke with the New York Post and condemned Rote’s actions to defend her with a firearm, stating “it’s scary to think that people are carrying guns around the city”.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2030Z November 14, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 203014Z NOV 23
ICOD: 193014Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. DEMONSTRATIONS COMPLICATE HISTORIC TRENDS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues invasion of Gaza. Israeli forces continue to push south along the coast, and are expected link up with forces in Central Gaza soon.
European Front: Protests and demonstrations continue related to a variety of issues. Pro-Palestine protests continue in opposition to the Israeli invasion of Gaza. These events have resulted in thousands of Arab/Africans taking to the streets, the sheer number of which has prompted Anti-Immigration protests. AC: In Europe, some protests are leading to other protests, as social issues snowball into much larger problems, and as individuals seek to occupy opposing political viewpoints.
-HomeFront-
USA: Much consternation abounds following the realization that the Corporate Transparency Act comes into fruition on January 1, 2024. This Act, passed with bipartisan support, was quietly placed into the National Defense Authorization Act for FY21. An estimated 80 million small businesses are affected by this law. All public companies and corporations that employ more than 20 people are exempt from this law. AC: As many people finally finish reading the thousands of pages of budgetary laws passed over the past few years, Acts like this one are being discovered. This Act requires most small business LLCs to register with the U.S. Treasury department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), providing identification documents and ownership data. This is used to create a Law Enforcement registry of all small business owners in the U.S.
CA: In San Francisco, a Czech news crew covering the preparations for the upcoming APEC summit was robbed at gunpoint on the street as they were filming B roll for an upcoming newscast. The three armed assailants stole their camera equipment and so far have evaded capture.
-Analyst Comments-
As many demonstrations continue around the world, complex social issues dominate and confuse the situation. The “enemy of my enemy” mindset is not accurate in describing the social concerns that are resulting in protests around Europe. Pro-Palestine protests draw both extreme-left, and extreme-right protestors. For instance, both ANTIFA and Far-Right groups have demonstrated support for Palestine…two groups that have historically had an adversarial relationship. Likewise, some Pro-Palestine protests draw significant Anti-Immigration groups, which also do not support Israel. As strange and sometimes cognitively dissonant demonstrations continue, these will likely continue to be high-risk events, as current events complicate traditional and historical rivalries.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2300Z November 15, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230015Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223015Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: DOMESTIC US SURVEILLANCE CONTINUES. MANY WESTERN NATIONS REJECT CALLS FOR GAZA CEASEFIRE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues consolidation of the northern pocket around Gaza City. Israeli airstrikes continue as before.
European Front: U.K. Parliament votes 293-125 against calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Anti-Socialism protests continue with intensity in Spain.
-HomeFront-
USA: Congress passes a bipartisan resolution in support of Israel. House Speaker says calls for a ceasefire in Gaza are “outrageous”. The TSA’s Quiet Skies watchlist program has reportedly expanded to include the family members of J6 participants. This came to light after AJ Fischer’s family (a J6 defendant) noticed the secret TSA codes on his infant child’s boarding pass. AC: Though this specific incident relies on single-source reporting at the moment, it is worthy of consideration as this event highlights the continued targeting of J6 participants. This targeting, and the expansion of investigations, arrests, and raids has continued with virtually zero MSM coverage. The Quiet Skies program is a substantial TSA surveillance program that was revealed to the public in 2018 after years of secrecy. Anyone flying in the US can check their boarding pass for special characters, such as “SSSS” which indicates they have been flagged as being a national security risk and will likely be subjected to additional screening.
CA: CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping arrives for the APEC summit.
-Analyst Comments-
Israeli rhetoric remains extremely inflammatory. For instance, in a televised interview a few days ago Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir stated: "To be clear, when we say that Hamas should be destroyed, it also means those who celebrate, those who support & those who hand out candy. They're all terrorists and they should also be destroyed". This highlights what has been indicated by thousands of similar statements from dozens of Israeli government officials, that the targeting of civilians in Palestine is deliberate due to Israel not distinguishing between militants and noncombatants. This is almost certainly why the CIVCAS in this conflict has been proportionately higher than any war in recent memory. At best, Israel by their own admission does not care about CIVCAS; at worst, the IDF is deliberately targeting civilians.
Conversely, Pro-Palestine demonstrations around the world remain high-risk events for everyday citizens as cultures clash. Most of the world being revolted by the deliberate targeting of civilians is expected…this is why Pro-Palestine protests have had such a universal message to many different cultures. However, as more diverging cultures take part in Pro-Palestine protests, conflicts are likely as the recent calls for humanitarianism are probably not uniting enough to stifle deeply-set cultural grievances over time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2100Z November 16, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 210016Z NOV 23
ICOD: 200016Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: ATF BANS PYROTECHNICS. APEC SUMMIT CONTINUES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: In Gaza the information war continues, effectively restricting the overwhelming majority of information regarding the situation on the ground. In Gaza City, Israel has reportedly captured al Shifa hospital. AC: Al Shifa hospital is the largest medical center in Gaza, and according to IDF officials was allegedly the “beating heart” of Hamas’ operations and intelligence for the entirety of Gaza. For years, Israel has touted that Hamas maintained a large bunker complex beneath the hospital. Israeli officials are certain of the exitance of this complex because Israel built it in 1983. Following the raid on the hospital, Israel released photos of the SSE that strongly indicate that only 10 rifles have been found so far in this vast underground complex.
European Front: The Guardian removes Bin Laden’s Letter to America from their website, which was posted to their website over 20 years ago. This letter went viral on TikTok a few days ago, resulting in the removal of this document due to the implications contained in the text. Note on sources: The “Letter to America” that has been mentioned in several viral videos is not the “Letter to America” that was taken down. Bin Laden wrote multiple open letters to the American public, and many of the viral videos mention one of his final letters, which mentions Obama being president, and therefore cannot be a 20 year old document. The letter that was removed by The Guardian was Bin Laden’s first letter, which has completely different content. The removed letter can be found (for now) via the Internet Archive.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – In a declaration dated November 2, but is just now becoming public, The ATF issued a blanket ban on all consumer smoke grenades and civilian flashbang devices.
CA: Demonstrators gather in San Fransisco in support of Xi Jinping and the CCP during the APEC Summit. Though unconfirmed ATT, limited reporting indicates many of these supporters may have been paid by Chinese diplomats to show support for Jinping.
-Analyst Comments-
From time to time, historical events resurface to the public consciousness, much like Bin Laden’s Letter to America has done in the past few days. Unfortunately, the lack of critical thinking on most of social media, coupled with the wrong document being discussed, has resulted in many analytical leaps regarding Bin Laden’s legacy.
Regarding the recent ATF actions, in usual fashion the ATF’s declaration is extremely vague and subjective. It is unclear as to how this ban will affect maritime safety devices, which are mandated by the USCG on most classes of vessel. It is also unclear as to how this will affect consumer grade fireworks, the HVAC repair industry, or the film industry due to the vague wording on potential exemptions. The ban is probably intended for “tactical”-style devices, but due to the lack of forethought and contradictory stance characteristic of the ATF, the potentially wide-ranging effects of this ban are currently unknown.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z November 17, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233017Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223017Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: FCC VOTES TO EXERCISE CONTROL OVER INTERNET PROVIDERS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: In Gaza, the death toll tops 12,000. AC: This figure has not yet been verified by the UN or the ICRC.
European Front: Pro-Palestine protests continue to increase in size, frequency, and severity. In the U.K. war memorials have been desecrated by Pro-Palestine demonstrators (beginning in earnest on Remembrance Day), and in Italy the Palestinian flag was hung from the Leaning Tower of Pisa.
-HomeFront-
GA: In Atlanta a CSX train carrying diesel fuel derails, causing a fire. It is unclear as to what caused the derailment, or if there are any HAZMAT concerns.
Washington D.C. – The FCC votes to implement Biden’s plans to further restrict internet access and communications. The list of powers granted to the FCC under this new mandate are nearly infinite, with the current FCC Commissioner stating: “The Biden Administration’s plan empowers the FCC to regulate every aspect of the Internet sector for the first time ever” and that “It reads like a planning document drawn up in the faculty lounge of a university’s Soviet Studies Department”.
-Analyst Comments-
As further restrictions on all internet-based communications continue to affect most citizens around the world, investing time to improve one’s knowledge of alternative communications methods is always recommended. The targeting experienced by journalists around the world for covering the conflict in Gaza should be a strong indicator of the power of information, and the personal danger many people are taking on in order to tell the truth.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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