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Admin Note: The information warfare and speech targeting that we saw during the Ukrainian War does not hold a candle to that which we are seeing as humanity’s oldest and most intense conflict remains kinetic in the Middle East. With the Ukrainian War, most journalists and analysts who failed to support the official narrative were faced with ostracization and the loss of their livelihood. With this conflict, in addition to the constraints of social norms, there are also hate-speech laws that make some observations illegal. In some nations, even a mainstream news article can describe the situation on the ground in the most objective and neutral way possible, and still be considered to be illegal hate speech. Direct quotes from elected officials, when repeated online, can also be viewed the same way by authorities. This complicates analytical work and results in very few open and honest denoscriptions of what is going on, on the ground. As such, not only are most information sources unreliable, but the legal implications of speech are also likely to result in the situation becoming more unclear as the war continues.
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Analyst: S2A
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RR The Wire 2100Z November 07, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 210007Z NOV 23
ICOD: 200007Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: US, RUSSIA WITHDRAW FROM CFE TREATY. NASHVILLE SHOOTER MANIFESTO REVEALS SECURITY RISKS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: The US and Russia have both withdrawn from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). This treaty (among other things) limited the number of troops in the European Theater, in an attempt to provide a barrier to massive troop deployments that may escalate diplomatic tensions. AC: This is a serious deterioration of the diplomatic situation between the US/NATO and Russia.
Middle East Front: A tentative evacuation corridor has been opened along the width of Salah al-Din Road, linking Gaza City with southern Gaza. The IDF has been allowing limited groups of civilians south along this road during limited hours. However, both Hamas and the IDF continue to conduct strikes along this road, making the humanitarian corridor extremely unsafe. So far, it is unclear as to if any UN or ICRC vehicles have attempted to use this corridor yet, which would indicate the safety of this route. Despite this uncertainty many Palestinians try to make their way south, while many more remain in place in Gaza City.
-HomeFront-
USA: The US military continues to prepare for war. Recruiting jobs continue to be heavily pressed on service members, amid the continuance of the years-long recruiting crisis. Ad campaigns for the military have suddenly dropped DEI initiatives, focusing on the traditional demographic for recruiting efforts.
Limited reporting also indicates the DoD has expanded eligibility for CAO programs to include junior officers, warrant officers, and senior NCOs. This is the program that notifies next of kin in the event of a mass casualty or a LSCO. AC: Expanding eligibility of this program indicates either a severe staffing shortage, or the preparation for major casualties, but likely is a combination of both factors.
TN: The Nashville shooter’s manifesto was leaked to independent journalists. Though the content of the leak is incomplete so far, and referenced a 10 minute “video tape” that has not been revealed, the motive of the shooter remains extraordinarily clear. The FBI and all LE involved with the case still maintain that the motive of the shooter is unclear. The Nashville PD is currently investigating the source of the leak and Google, Reddit, and Meta have heavily censored the documents themselves.
-Analyst Comments-
Operationally, the Nashville shooter’s manifesto is worth examination as it directly lists specific motivations for the attack, which are critical Indications and Warnings for other attacks. The shooter meticulously detailed specific items, possessions, ideology, and physical attributes of people who were selected to be targets. The shooter also directly stated hesitance to commit the attack if security was present, and included a check for security personnel in the pre-attack checklist. If LE had released this document immediately, these plans would have given critical insight into the mind and threat profile of similar killers, which may have aided victims of potential copycat attacks, and allowed security personnel to fill gaps in security plans. As is, this document was withheld from the public beyond the scope of LE investigative secrecy for political reasons. The Nashville PD and the FBI directly lied to the public and feigned ignorance of the motive for the attack, concealing security vulnerabilities and targeting information that could have been exploited (and may have been exploited) by other shooters. No LE notice or memo was released warning citizens of these attack vectors, security gaps, or target selection criteria.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z November 08, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223008Z NOV 23
ICOD: 213008Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA AS SUBSTANTIAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES CONTINUE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: In Germany, the Saxony-Anhalt branch of the far-right (by German standards) Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) political party has been labeled as an extremist group. This designation sets into motion a set of procedures that allows for German law enforcement and intelligence agencies to begin substantial intelligence collection efforts of party members and officials. This move comes one day after the AfD party topped the polls, becoming the most popular political party in this region.
Middle East Front: Yemeni forces reportedly shoot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. NFI ATT.
Gaza: The UN updates the following casualty figures as of November 5th: In Israel, 1,400 people have been killed as a result of Hamas/Hezbollah attacks, and thousands have been wounded. Allegedly a total of 200 people have been taken hostage (however, many have been killed in airstrikes and some have been released). In Palestine, approximately 9,500 people have been killed, and 23,000 wounded mostly resulting from Israeli airstrikes. Included in this figure are 89 UN aid workers. In addition, 2.2 million Palestinians have no access to food, water, or electricity. Concerning displacement, from October 7th until now, tens of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced from their homes.
For Hamas, casualty figures are very difficult to verify. Israel has confirmed that 60 Hamas fighters have been killed, but have referenced potentially thousands more that have been killed without SSE or forensic analysis of remains. Hamas regularly notifies the press of the deaths of fighters, but sometimes references a number without providing names. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has a sophisticated mortuary services division, and regularly releases reliable information on the deaths of militants that is more verifiable. So far, very few Hezbollah casualties have been reported through official channels, but the fighting along the Lebanese border has not been as severe as in Gaza.
South Pacific: Cyberattack causes widespread telecom outage throughout Australia. Reports from the affected telecom provider (Optus) indicate that critical infrastructure was affected severely, in addition to consumer internet connections.
-HomeFront-
PA: Voting machines are currently under investigation as voters reported their votes switching after being cast. The machines were allegedly taken offline following these complaints.
WA: Reports of a suspicious substance found at an election office in Spokane County caused the evacuation of several other election offices. NFI ATT.
TX: This morning explosions and a major fire were reported at a chemical plant in Shepherd, TX. A shelter in place order was issued for the local area, as the fire consumed many hazardous chemicals that were produced by the company such as paint, industrial coatings, and various other HAZMAT that are necessary for POL production facilities. The cause of the incident is not yet confirmed, but the company President stated it likely resulted from a “forklift incident”.
-Analyst Comments-
Election irregularities continue to be a concern for many Americans. Both local and mid-term electoral procedures have not resulted in any reassurances of secure means of participating in the political system. This will remain a substantial concern for most as 2024 approaches.
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Rumors of peace in Ukraine intensify as funding dries up, or is diverted to Israel. The Ukrainian War is too substantial of a war, with too many international actors, to simply remove from the news cycle in the hopes of shifting focus to Israel. However, the capitulation of Ukraine (probably to involve territorial loss due to annexation by Russia) is likely to occur quickly when it does happen. This will likely result in substantial information warfare tactics, as shifting such a large narrative quickly is likely to cause domestic political problems in the US. The narrative of Ukrainian victory has been pushed on the US populace for many years now, but a peace deal is likely to be ironed out within a much shorter time frame. When this hammer drops, it is almost certain to occur before the 2024 election.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2000Z November 09, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 200009Z NOV 23
ICOD: 193009Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. POLITICAL TARGETING RAMPS UP AROUND THE WORLD.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: In Spain, prominent politician Alejo Vidal-Quadras, the founder of the far-right (by Spanish standards) VOX party was shot in the head on the street in Madrid. He remains in critical condition at a local hospital. This incident came a few hours after he tweeted his opposition to the formation of a coalition government between the Socialist Party and the Junts, that allowed for Pedro Sanchez (the leader of the Socialist Party) to remain Prime Minister under the new coalition government.
Middle East Front: President Biden states there is “no possibility” for a ceasefire in Gaza. However, Israel has allegedly implemented a daily 4-hour “humanitarian pause” in which citizens of Gaza City are expected to flee south through the previously described humanitarian corridor. AC: As of right now, it is not clear as to what this “pause” is supposed to do, or if it is the same announcement from a few days ago, as the humanitarian corridor that was established days ago has not resulted in any marked cessation of the targeting of civilians. Israel continues to strike clearly marked UN facilities, hospitals, schools, and aid convoys in and near the pre-established Salah al-Din Road “humanitarian” corridor. Conversely, Hamas remains committed to insurgency-style warfare, complicating the situation on the ground even further.
-HomeFront-
TX: Sarah Fields, a journalist for The Publica, continues to face targeting by the FBI for her journalistic efforts to expose a Hamas training camp that was recently active near the US/Mexico border. Her sources for this reporting are confidential, but allegedly Hamas maintained a sophisticated training camp in Matamoros, Mexico in which militants would receive training before infiltrating across the US border to serve as sleeper agents. This camp was allegedly shut down in 2022. AC: The nature of FBI involvement is reportedly not to obtain more information on this training camp, but to determine how the journalist obtained this information, as well as wanting to know the names of Field’s sources.
-Analyst Comments-
Uncomfortable truths are becoming very difficult to ignore as the war in Gaza remains extremely intense. Atmospherics from within the UN indicate exasperation at the futility of establishing even the most basic humanitarian efforts in Gaza. What is going on in Gaza right now fits the definition of Total War, in which no aspect of a population is spared from the conflict, and unrestricted warfare tactics are the norm. Total War in a Counter-Insurgency (COIN) environment results in mostly civilian casualties. For instance, more civilians have been killed in Gaza in 30 days, than were killed in the past 20 months of the Ukrainian War (per UN data).The failure of a populace to understand this importance and severity is likely to result in no hesitation from political world leaders in continuing this war.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z November 10, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213010Z NOV 23
ICOD: 203010Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ELECTORAL IRREGULARITIES REMAIN CONSTANT. TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH IN EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: Large scale protests break out in response to the shooting of VOX party leader Alejo Vidal-Quadras yesterday. AC: Though separate issues, these protests are difficult to distinguish from Pro-Palestine protests, which continue to be daily occurrences throughout most of Europe.
Middle East Front: Israel continues consolidating the pocket in Northern Gaza, and has made limited gains south, along the coast. The IDF continues to strengthen the salient to the sea in central Gaza. Airstrikes continue along the humanitarian corridor on Salah al-Din Road. It is currently unclear as to how many citizens are successfully passing through this corridor.
-HomeFront-
WA: Additional details emerge regarding the incidents at election offices on Wednesday. A series of suspicious letters were sent to multiple election offices, some of which contained a white powder substance. In the letter sent to Spokane County, the substance was identified as fentanyl. In the letter sent to Pierce County, the substance was baking soda. In addition to the letters sent in Washington, the FBI has indicated that letters were also received at election facilities in Oregon, California, Nevada, and Georgia. All of the letters reportedly included direct threats to election drop boxes, and contained general sentiments calling for the removal of elections. In the Pierce County letter (the only one released to the public so far) several ANTIFA symbols, verbiage, and slogans were present in the text.
NJ: J6 participant Gregory Yetman is in custody following a multi-day manhunt that resulted from the FBI being unable to locate him to serve a warrant for his presence at the events at the US Capitol on J6. AC: Yetman was reportedly not part of initial J6 targeting. In March, USA Today doxed him based on photographs and open-source methods, which resulted in targeting by the FBI. It is important to note that per USA Today’s own reporting, Yetman had already been identified and interrogated by the FBI for his actions on J6, with no charges being filed. This new manhunt appears to not be based on any new evidence, but rather the direct result of media corporations heavily influencing the FBI.
-Analyst Comments-
Election targeting will likely continue as before, as evidence of electoral irregularities becomes a norm. More direct election harassment from independent groups is extremely likely as 2024 approaches.
Since J6, thousands of “journalists” have been combing tens of thousands of photos in an attempt to aid federal investigators, and even prompt investigations where none existed prior. Over 1,000 arrests have been made, and continue to be made as more citizens become identified via official investigations, or via doxing by media companies.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1530Z November 11, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 153011Z NOV 23
ICOD: 143011Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: MOODY’S DOWNGRADES ASSESSMENT OF US ECONOMY. PROTESTS CONTINUE WORLDWIDE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
European Front: Throughout the continent, protests, demonstrations, and riots continue related to a variety of issues. Protests and demonstrations increase in severity in Spain as citizens continue to express dissatisfaction with the ruling Socialist party. Protests in the U.K. continue in support of Palestine, but counterprotests also continue regarding the migrant crisis, and subsequently the flood of immigrants from the Middle East and Africa.
Middle East Front: Disclosure of IDF casualties has essentially come to a halt, with no new data for the past several days. The Ministry of Health in Gaza claims the casualty count has reached 11,078 deaths, 4,506 of which are children. AC: This figure has not yet been corroborated with the UN or third party NGOs.
-HomeFront-
USA: Moody’s Corporation downgrades US economic rating from “stable” to “negative”, citing increasing debt and “continued political polarization” in Congress. AC: This is not necessarily an indicator of immediate financial collapse, but is rather the public admission of a declining economy, which in turn is fairly obvious to anyone who makes or spends income in the US. Moody’s is the third and final financial rating agency to downgrade the US’s economic status from the top ratings the US had enjoyed for decades.
CA: In Los Angeles, a chemical spill impacts 33 people, hospitalizing one. Initial reports were that the spill involved a 55 gallon drum filled with ammonia, but as of this report the contents of the drum are not yet confirmed.
-Analyst Comments-
On social media, much of the discourse surrounding the conflict in Gaza has effectively been discouraged. Hamas has published many videos showing ATGM attacks on tanks, so the IDF’s hesitance to admit to casualties is a strong indicator that casualties are likely higher than anticipated. Conversely, Israel’s encirclement of Gaza City (and the subsequent logistical isolation) are likely to result in substantial Hamas losses as the northern pocket is consolidated.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1530Z November 13, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 153013Z NOV 23
ICOD: 143013Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. DOMESTIC U.S. CRIME INTENSIFIES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Various militant groups continue rocket and drone attacks on US military bases in Iraq and Syria. In northern Israel, attacks by Hezbollah intensify following the continued Israeli advance on Gaza City. AC: At this point, Hezbollah seems to be involved to the point of effectively opening up a second front for Israel. Attacks by Hezbollah are regular and deliberate, as are Israeli strikes into Lebanon.
In the Eastern Med, Five US military personnel were killed in a helicopter crash during a routine aerial refueling training exercise. Most details of this event have not been disclosed to the public ATT.
-HomeFront-
USA: Domestically, crime and social violence remain major concerns for many Americans following several high-profile incidents.
NV: Las Vegas teenager Jonathan Lewis succumbed to his wounds after being severely beaten by other students near his high school on Nov 1. AC: Lewis was beaten to death by a mob of black students for defending another boy who was being assaulted by the same group. No arrests have been made.
NY: John Rote has been arrested following his defense of a woman being mugged on the NYC subway system. Rote fired two warning shots at the mugger (which did not result in the mugger leaving), stalling for time to allow the victim to escape. The shooting prompted a statement by Transit official Richard Davey, who said “we don’t tolerate this kind of conduct in NYC Transit, period”.
NCR: US Secret Service agents protecting Naomi Biden engaged three carjackers in Georgetown as they attempted to break into their unmarked Secret Service vehicle. None of the attackers were hit, and all three evaded capture. AC: This incident appears to be the result of routine street crime rather than any deliberate targeting attempt.
CA: General Secretary of the CCP, Xi Jinping, conducts a State visit to CA in advance of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit. AC: Though the diplomatic visit is more indicative of international atmospherics, local citizens have been focused on the preparations for this visit, rather than the Summit itself. CA officials and LE have removed major homeless encampments in San Francisco, after years of these camps serving as a central point of friction among citizens. These encampments have resulted in many CA cities becoming infamous for the dystopian landscapes that have spread over virtually every sidewalk and public place.
-Analyst Comments-
Regarding the NYC subway mugging incident, statements by officials have all been in condemnation of Rote’s use of a firearm, not the mugging. Rote was identified and turned in by a friend who recognized him from security footage. The victim of the mugging, who remains unidentified, spoke with the New York Post and condemned Rote’s actions to defend her with a firearm, stating “it’s scary to think that people are carrying guns around the city”.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2030Z November 14, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 203014Z NOV 23
ICOD: 193014Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. DEMONSTRATIONS COMPLICATE HISTORIC TRENDS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues invasion of Gaza. Israeli forces continue to push south along the coast, and are expected link up with forces in Central Gaza soon.
European Front: Protests and demonstrations continue related to a variety of issues. Pro-Palestine protests continue in opposition to the Israeli invasion of Gaza. These events have resulted in thousands of Arab/Africans taking to the streets, the sheer number of which has prompted Anti-Immigration protests. AC: In Europe, some protests are leading to other protests, as social issues snowball into much larger problems, and as individuals seek to occupy opposing political viewpoints.
-HomeFront-
USA: Much consternation abounds following the realization that the Corporate Transparency Act comes into fruition on January 1, 2024. This Act, passed with bipartisan support, was quietly placed into the National Defense Authorization Act for FY21. An estimated 80 million small businesses are affected by this law. All public companies and corporations that employ more than 20 people are exempt from this law. AC: As many people finally finish reading the thousands of pages of budgetary laws passed over the past few years, Acts like this one are being discovered. This Act requires most small business LLCs to register with the U.S. Treasury department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), providing identification documents and ownership data. This is used to create a Law Enforcement registry of all small business owners in the U.S.
CA: In San Francisco, a Czech news crew covering the preparations for the upcoming APEC summit was robbed at gunpoint on the street as they were filming B roll for an upcoming newscast. The three armed assailants stole their camera equipment and so far have evaded capture.
-Analyst Comments-
As many demonstrations continue around the world, complex social issues dominate and confuse the situation. The “enemy of my enemy” mindset is not accurate in describing the social concerns that are resulting in protests around Europe. Pro-Palestine protests draw both extreme-left, and extreme-right protestors. For instance, both ANTIFA and Far-Right groups have demonstrated support for Palestine…two groups that have historically had an adversarial relationship. Likewise, some Pro-Palestine protests draw significant Anti-Immigration groups, which also do not support Israel. As strange and sometimes cognitively dissonant demonstrations continue, these will likely continue to be high-risk events, as current events complicate traditional and historical rivalries.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2300Z November 15, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230015Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223015Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: DOMESTIC US SURVEILLANCE CONTINUES. MANY WESTERN NATIONS REJECT CALLS FOR GAZA CEASEFIRE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel continues consolidation of the northern pocket around Gaza City. Israeli airstrikes continue as before.
European Front: U.K. Parliament votes 293-125 against calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Anti-Socialism protests continue with intensity in Spain.
-HomeFront-
USA: Congress passes a bipartisan resolution in support of Israel. House Speaker says calls for a ceasefire in Gaza are “outrageous”. The TSA’s Quiet Skies watchlist program has reportedly expanded to include the family members of J6 participants. This came to light after AJ Fischer’s family (a J6 defendant) noticed the secret TSA codes on his infant child’s boarding pass. AC: Though this specific incident relies on single-source reporting at the moment, it is worthy of consideration as this event highlights the continued targeting of J6 participants. This targeting, and the expansion of investigations, arrests, and raids has continued with virtually zero MSM coverage. The Quiet Skies program is a substantial TSA surveillance program that was revealed to the public in 2018 after years of secrecy. Anyone flying in the US can check their boarding pass for special characters, such as “SSSS” which indicates they have been flagged as being a national security risk and will likely be subjected to additional screening.
CA: CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping arrives for the APEC summit.
-Analyst Comments-
Israeli rhetoric remains extremely inflammatory. For instance, in a televised interview a few days ago Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir stated: "To be clear, when we say that Hamas should be destroyed, it also means those who celebrate, those who support & those who hand out candy. They're all terrorists and they should also be destroyed". This highlights what has been indicated by thousands of similar statements from dozens of Israeli government officials, that the targeting of civilians in Palestine is deliberate due to Israel not distinguishing between militants and noncombatants. This is almost certainly why the CIVCAS in this conflict has been proportionately higher than any war in recent memory. At best, Israel by their own admission does not care about CIVCAS; at worst, the IDF is deliberately targeting civilians.
Conversely, Pro-Palestine demonstrations around the world remain high-risk events for everyday citizens as cultures clash. Most of the world being revolted by the deliberate targeting of civilians is expected…this is why Pro-Palestine protests have had such a universal message to many different cultures. However, as more diverging cultures take part in Pro-Palestine protests, conflicts are likely as the recent calls for humanitarianism are probably not uniting enough to stifle deeply-set cultural grievances over time.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2100Z November 16, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 210016Z NOV 23
ICOD: 200016Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ATF BANS PYROTECHNICS. APEC SUMMIT CONTINUES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: In Gaza the information war continues, effectively restricting the overwhelming majority of information regarding the situation on the ground. In Gaza City, Israel has reportedly captured al Shifa hospital. AC: Al Shifa hospital is the largest medical center in Gaza, and according to IDF officials was allegedly the “beating heart” of Hamas’ operations and intelligence for the entirety of Gaza. For years, Israel has touted that Hamas maintained a large bunker complex beneath the hospital. Israeli officials are certain of the exitance of this complex because Israel built it in 1983. Following the raid on the hospital, Israel released photos of the SSE that strongly indicate that only 10 rifles have been found so far in this vast underground complex.
European Front: The Guardian removes Bin Laden’s Letter to America from their website, which was posted to their website over 20 years ago. This letter went viral on TikTok a few days ago, resulting in the removal of this document due to the implications contained in the text. Note on sources: The “Letter to America” that has been mentioned in several viral videos is not the “Letter to America” that was taken down. Bin Laden wrote multiple open letters to the American public, and many of the viral videos mention one of his final letters, which mentions Obama being president, and therefore cannot be a 20 year old document. The letter that was removed by The Guardian was Bin Laden’s first letter, which has completely different content. The removed letter can be found (for now) via the Internet Archive.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – In a declaration dated November 2, but is just now becoming public, The ATF issued a blanket ban on all consumer smoke grenades and civilian flashbang devices.
CA: Demonstrators gather in San Fransisco in support of Xi Jinping and the CCP during the APEC Summit. Though unconfirmed ATT, limited reporting indicates many of these supporters may have been paid by Chinese diplomats to show support for Jinping.
-Analyst Comments-
From time to time, historical events resurface to the public consciousness, much like Bin Laden’s Letter to America has done in the past few days. Unfortunately, the lack of critical thinking on most of social media, coupled with the wrong document being discussed, has resulted in many analytical leaps regarding Bin Laden’s legacy.
Regarding the recent ATF actions, in usual fashion the ATF’s declaration is extremely vague and subjective. It is unclear as to how this ban will affect maritime safety devices, which are mandated by the USCG on most classes of vessel. It is also unclear as to how this will affect consumer grade fireworks, the HVAC repair industry, or the film industry due to the vague wording on potential exemptions. The ban is probably intended for “tactical”-style devices, but due to the lack of forethought and contradictory stance characteristic of the ATF, the potentially wide-ranging effects of this ban are currently unknown.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z November 17, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233017Z NOV 23
ICOD: 223017Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: FCC VOTES TO EXERCISE CONTROL OVER INTERNET PROVIDERS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: In Gaza, the death toll tops 12,000. AC: This figure has not yet been verified by the UN or the ICRC.
European Front: Pro-Palestine protests continue to increase in size, frequency, and severity. In the U.K. war memorials have been desecrated by Pro-Palestine demonstrators (beginning in earnest on Remembrance Day), and in Italy the Palestinian flag was hung from the Leaning Tower of Pisa.
-HomeFront-
GA: In Atlanta a CSX train carrying diesel fuel derails, causing a fire. It is unclear as to what caused the derailment, or if there are any HAZMAT concerns.
Washington D.C. – The FCC votes to implement Biden’s plans to further restrict internet access and communications. The list of powers granted to the FCC under this new mandate are nearly infinite, with the current FCC Commissioner stating: “The Biden Administration’s plan empowers the FCC to regulate every aspect of the Internet sector for the first time ever” and that “It reads like a planning document drawn up in the faculty lounge of a university’s Soviet Studies Department”.
-Analyst Comments-
As further restrictions on all internet-based communications continue to affect most citizens around the world, investing time to improve one’s knowledge of alternative communications methods is always recommended. The targeting experienced by journalists around the world for covering the conflict in Gaza should be a strong indicator of the power of information, and the personal danger many people are taking on in order to tell the truth.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1800Z November 18, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 180018Z NOV 23
ICOD: 170018Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: TWITTER/X CRACKS DOWN ON CONTENT AS CONFLICT CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Questions mount as BBC coverage of recent Israeli actions casts doubt on official narratives. As Israel consolidates the northern pocket around Gaza City, very little evidence surfaces of what was allegedly a Hamas stronghold under al Shifa Hospital. AC: Hamas almost certainly uses every subterranean structure in Gaza, to some degree. MSM reporting has indicated that this degree is somewhat overstated by Israeli forces. Finding ~10 rifles does seem to confirm Hamas presence…but this is not evidence of what is supposed to be a major stronghold. Of course, the grand question remains: How much equipment is being moved prior to Israeli forces overrunning Hamas positions? At this time, this cannot be known. However, most Counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine indicates that the withdrawal of equipment is probably unlikely, as most militants tend to emplace weapons in caches, moving between each cache unarmed. This would mean that if Hamas used a location, there would likely be substantial evidence of it. However, the lack of clarity of the situation on the ground is likely playing a factor as well; for every known COIN tactic, there is an alternative opinion. For instance, the IDF has only identified a few rocket launch sites, yet we know Hamas uses these munitions as their main ranged weapons.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestine protests begin to increase in severity. The DNC HQ in Washington D.C. was targeted by demonstrators, along with many key landmarks around the city. Public transportation services have consistently been disrupted due to demonstrations in many major US cities.
On Twitter/X, Elon Musk reverses his content moderation position on the conflict in Gaza as advertisers threaten to remove advertising accounts. This follows Musk’s recent observations on the severe rhetoric on the platform. AC: In less than 24 hours after Musk’s comments, X will now begin suspending accounts that post Pro-Palestine phrases. It is unclear as to if the severe rhetoric that prompted Musk’s original comments will also be deleted.
-Analyst Comments-
Admin Note for Posterity: As mentioned previously, the Israel/Palestine conflict is one of the oldest and most severe conflicts in human history. This results in anyone who gets too close to the issue being targeted by organized governmental action, private companies, or cancel culture from one’s own supporter base.
Unlike the Ukrainian War, in which some level of dissenting opinion was socially acceptable (if nothing else on a technical and tactical level), in this conflict neutrality is not socially acceptable by either side. On the one hand, most who are not 110% supportive of Israel will likely face dire financial consequences. On the other hand, Pro-Palestine movements and groups do not necessarily embody a worldview that is compatible with much of western society. For now, the calls for the cessation of the targeting of civilians are a uniting factor for most of the world…but in due time age-old cultural differences will begin to fracture this unity, and result in more conflict than before.
As such, most journalistic content regarding this conflict has never been more carefully worded. This will likely result in future coverage of the Gaza war (more specifically the information war) being watered-down or slowing as the risks of sharing information unfortunately outweigh the necessity of sharing the whole truth. After several years of people losing their jobs for doing what they believe is right, with very few people willing to support such endeavors in the long run, the coverage of the most intensely vitriolic topic in human history is not something to be taken lightly.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1600Z November 20, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 160020Z NOV 23
ICOD: 150020Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: BORDER TENSIONS MOUNT IN EUROPE. SMALL FRACTION OF J6 TAPES RELEASED.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: In Yemen, Houthi rebels have begun intensifying maritime piracy operations. Last night, Yemen seized the M/V GALAXY LEADER as part of their ongoing war with Israel. The ship is Japanese flagged and operated by Ray Car Carriers, a company registered in the Isle of Man. AC: Ray Car Carriers was founded by Abraham “Rami” Ungar, one of the richest men in Israel. This is likely why this vessel was targeted by Yemen.
European Front: Tensions mount in Northern Europe as nations continue to quietly enhance their border security. Tensions remain between Estonia and Russia, the former accusing the latter of contributing to immigration woes. Finland has announced the closure of 4 border crossings with Russia, allegedly also due to immigration issues. Last week, Sweden announced plans to bolster border checkpoints in the wake of Quran burning incidents, which have inflamed significant numbers of refugees/immigrants in the region, resulting in clashes at border checkpoints.
-HomeFront-
USA: Some of the J6 tapes have been released. Though the House Speaker claims to have authorized the release of almost 44,000 hours of footage, at this time only 89 videos have been released comprising of 12 hours, 35 minutes, and 25 seconds of footage. If the 44,000 hours are intended to be the final goal for release, this means that 0.03% of the tapes have been released. Additionally, the Committee on House Administration uploaded these files to their Dropbox page, last editing them on September 7th, 2023. AC: Theoretically, if keeping the same upload schedule as demonstrated so far, and if an equal amount of footage is uploaded today, simple arithmetic indicates that roughly 12.5 hours of footage being released every 74 days means that it will take approximately 713.64 years for all of the files to be released. Using a more representative scenario, assuming the release of these tapes was the first action of Speaker Johnson (which it wasn’t, his first official action was to support a resolution in support of Israel), it still took 25 days to release 12.5 hours of footage. Using these figures, it would take 241 years to release the full archive. It is possible that other tapes have been released on other platforms, however, per the Committee on House Administration website, this is the total amount of footage released so far.
-Analyst Comments-
Announcing the full release of the J6 tapes, while only releasing a tiny fraction so far results in political capital being gained, while not actually resulting in any real action. Even so far, the few hours of footage that have been released have disproven years of narrative shaping operations.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z November 21, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223021Z NOV 23
ICOD: 213021Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: DOMESTIC U.S. SURVEILLANCE PROGRAMS CONTINUE TO BE REVEALED. TARGETING OF POLITICIANS CONTINUES IN EUROPE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Yemen releases footage of their hijacking of M/V GALAXY LEADER, confirming the operation involved a heliborne boarding.
European Front: Several high-profile politicians have been targeted over the past few weeks, usually coinciding with elections or polling results. Last night, Dutch politician Thierry Baudet (of the nationalist FvD party) was attacked with a bottle. This attack came two days before the election and is his second attack within as many months. In Spain, Alejo Vidal-Quadras remains in hospital following his assassination attempt via GSW to the head two weeks ago. This attack came within hours of him tweeting opposition to the new Socialist coalition government. Last month, German AfD party member Tino Chrupalla was stabbed with an unknown object (possibly a syringe) at a campaign rally. This attack came three days before the election. AC: German police originally stated there was “no evidence” of this attack taking place. However, follow on reporting after the incident indicates he noted pain in his arm, collapsed soon afterward, and was hospitalized for nausea, cramps, and dizziness, with ER doctors noting an injection mark on his arm.
-HomeFront-
USA: MSM becomes aware of the Data Analytical Services (DAS) program via a Congressional letter sent to AG Garland. This is a secret surveillance program that allows LE at local, state, and federal levels to conduct intelligence collection on every phone number in the US without a warrant. AC: This program, first becoming known to the public in 2013 under a different name, is one of many that occasionally are re-mentioned by the MSM. Though largely “old news”, these do confirm the overwhelming persistent warrantless surveillance that all Americans are subjected to and that even after a period of public outrage, these surveillance programs continue on unaffected.
-Analyst Comments-
The denoscription and capabilities of Yemen are complicated by international diplomacy. Yemen is currently ruled by what is effectively a military junta which controls the capitol region, the military, and virtually the entire country. This means that the international community, most of whom do not recognize this ruling authority, still refer to what is in effect the legitimate military as “Houthi rebels”. This confuses readers as many people have an insurgent force in mind when reading the word “rebels”. In reality, the military force in Yemen is capable of complicated maritime boarding operations, using extremely long-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, etc. This creates operational risks for any entity operating within Yemen’s sphere of influence; risks which are sometimes downplayed due to diplomatic wording obscuring Yemen’s true capabilities.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1730Z November 22, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 173022Z NOV 23
ICOD: 170022Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: WHISTLEBLOWER INDICATES US AIR MARSHAL SURVEILLANCE OF INNOCENT CITIZENS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
USA: In an interview with Fox News, the Director of the Air Marshal National Council, Sonya LaBosco highlighted the terrorism travel risks due to taskings that have allegedly removed Air Marshals from almost all flights. According to LaBosco almost all Air Marshals have either been tasked to assist illegals at the border (in non-LE roles, such as distributing water), or to continue surveillance on J6 travelers. AC: Though the goal of this interview was to discuss illegal immigration, this possibly inadvertent revelation of a secret surveillance program was obviously the more important disclosure. Though this is single-source reporting from an F-level source (meaning Reliability Cannot be Judged), LaBosco would be in a position to know of this surveillance program due to sentiments expressed directly by Air Marshals.
She claims that most Air Marshals have been tasked with following and surveilling citizens who traveled to Washington D.C. on J6 for completely benign reasons. According to LaBosco, persons traveling into Washington D.C. on or around the J6 event are still currently under surveillance by US Air Marshals, despite not having participated in any J6 events at all. She specifically states that citizens are on the Quiet Skies terror watchlist for attending a job interview or flying in to visit family. She mentioned specifically one case where a person traveled to Washington D.C. for a funeral, and yet has been under surveillance and on the Quiet Skies terror watchlist since January, 2021. She specifically mentions that the targets for surveillance have not committed any crime whatsoever.
-Analyst Comments-
Right now, this rather unexpected and grave security revelation has not been pressed by the MSM, despite the possibly Watergate-level nature of this leak. As these statements carry extremely severe implications, no one seems to know what to do with this information yet. Specifically mentioning individual surveillance cases, if corroborated via other sources, is indicative of the source having direct first-hand knowledge of classified information within this surveillance program. Even as illegal surveillance programs remain persistent and regularly revealed by the media, this is the largest and most direct confession as of late. This is the only recent revelation that directly mentions cases of individual targeted surveillance.
Regarding genuine terrorism concerns, enhanced situational awareness is recommended this holiday season as political targeting and criminal negligence on the part of counterterrorism agencies increases risks for everyone. As tensions remain high in the Middle East, the potential for lone-wolf-style attacks remains increased. Organized, complex terror attacks have historically remained unlikely. However, individual attacks (such as stabbings, shootings, and vehicle ramming attacks) are becoming more common. These attacks are extremely predictable as almost all terrorists are now known to LE before the attack. However, these indications and warnings are almost never present in intelligence collection efforts undertaken by citizens who do not have access government-level surveillance methods.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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PP The Wire 2000Z November 22, 2023
PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 200022Z NOV 23
ICOD: 193022Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: INCIDENT INVOLVING EXPLOSION CLOSES USA/CANADA BORDER CROSSING IN NY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
NY: At approximately 12:30pm a possible attack was conducted on the Rainbow Bridge linking Canada and the US at Niagara Falls. Allegedly, two unidentified persons were attempting to enter the US when their vehicle exploded. So far, authorities indicate two occupants of the vehicle were killed, no word on an injuries among CBP personnel. Border crossings IVO Buffalo, NY have been closed ATT, and various agencies and critical infrastructure locations around NY have increased their security posture. The FBI has deployed Joint Terrorism Task Force personnel to all NY points of entry. Authorities are also allegedly searching for a second vehicle of interest involved with the blast earlier today.
-Analyst Comments-
As this is a developing situation, details are extremely unconfirmed and subject to change. No agency so far has described the incident as a deliberate VBIED attack, but all MSM reporting so far has claimed “unnamed sources” referring to the incident as a deliberate terror attack. However, early footage of the incident indicates this may have been a vehicle ramming attack that resulted in an explosion. ATT it is too early to determine what happened via open source methods.
Considering the highly dynamic nature of this incident so far, and from a personal security and risk assessment standpoint, it would behoove citizens to assume this was a deliberate attack until proven otherwise.
This incident follows multiple generalized warnings of elevated terrorism risks from multiple entities, but no specific indicators were present to the general public regarding this specific incident. Increased situational awareness and vigilance continues to be recommended during this period of heightened risk.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1500Z November 24, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 150024Z NOV 23
ICOD: 143024Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: RIOTING IN IRELAND FOLLOWS TERROR ATTACK. NIAGARA INCIDENT LIKELY NOT TERRORISM.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ireland: Stabbing attack in Dublin injures several children near a school in Parnell Square East. The assailant was reportedly an immigrant from Algeria. Following the attack, heavy rioting has broken out as anti-immigration sentiments reach a tipping point. The lack-luster response from politicians regarding both the initial terrorist attack, and the larger immigration issue has resulted in further escalation among the populace.
France: Details emerge following the stabbing attack in Crepol, France a few days ago. In choosing a target, the 20+ attackers specifically told the victims during the incident that the attack was racially motivated. 17 were wounded, 1 was killed in the attack.
Middle East: Attacks against US military presence in the region continues to escalate. Various insurgent and/or state-sponsored groups have targeted US military bases regularly in Iraq and Syria since the Israeli war began in earnest. US Navy vessels continue to both be directly targeted by insurgents, in addition to providing missile defense in the Red Sea. In Israel, a 4-day ceasefire allegedly has gone into effect. As of the first few hours, the ceasefire appears to be holding.
-HomeFront-
NY: Follow on information regarding the Rainbow Bridge explosion incident indicate the vehicle in question was not traveling into the US through the checkpoint, but was traveling along the road toward the checkpoint on the US side of the border. Officials have been slow in releasing details, but based on statements so far, this incident is likely not terrorism. However, it is unclear as to what caused the vehicle to approach the border crossing at high speed, which resulted in an explosion. It is not clear if the incident was intentional or accidental.
KY: Train derailment results in sulfur spill IVO Livingston. A state of emergency has been declared and evacuations have been encouraged for the towns of Livingston and Piney Branch due to the hazardous nature of the spill.
-Analyst Comments-
Admin Note: Thankfully, the NY incident is likely not a deliberate attack. This does not mean that the incident was completely benign either. There is enough analytical uncertainty to assess that this incident is not as cut and dry as one might think. Based on the rapid involvement of multiple counterterrorism agencies, officials clearly thought this was a more complex, deliberate terror attack at first. Authorities are still very tight-lipped regarding the circumstances of the event, leading to increased doubts of the official story. Right now it seems unlikely that the explosion was the result of a high-order HME blast. However, statements are still somewhat conflicting as to whether or not traces of explosives were or were not found among the debris.
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Though the details of this incident are sketchy at best, this is a great learning opportunity for all. The concepts of risk assessment and reticence are lacking from much public discourse surrounding similar events. For many people, narrative shaping operations take priority over basic concerns for safety and situational awareness. As people rush to “debunk” one detail or another, many lose sight of perspective and of the art of balancing information in today’s unique threat environment. Having genuine concern regarding potential terror attacks is legitimate…but sensationalizing fear is not productive. Having concern for false-flag attacks is justified…but doing so to the point of downplaying genuine terror threats is not a good idea. Finger pointing does no good in the heat of the moment. Neither does shaming people for increasing their threat posture appropriately in response to what real-time operational intelligence suggested might have been a more substantial event. This is not sensationalism; this is operational prudence. Sometimes events turn out to be nothing, but sometimes not. As potentially life-altering incidents become more daily occurrences, having the open mind to rationally assess risk (and change threat postures accordingly) is a very valuable skill.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1430Z November 25, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 143025Z NOV 23
ICOD: 133025Z NOV 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SITUATION REMAINS TENSE IN IRELAND. DEREK CHAUVIN ATTACKED IN FEDERAL PRISON.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Ireland: In response to Thursday’s terror attack near a children’s venue, civil unrest has remained constant. Rioting and looting broke out in Dublin Thursday night. Police have stated that they are not treating this attack as terrorism. Irish PM Leo Varadkar has vowed to crack down on demonstrators and implement new hate speech laws that protect immigrants. AC: The Irish government’s decision to stand by immigrants while targeting the speech of taxpaying Irish citizens has resulted in nearly universal outrage among the Irish population, and will likely lead to more demonstrations and riots over the coming days.
Middle East: Thursday night, the M/V CMA CGM Symi was targeted by a drone in the Indian Ocean. Photos have emerged indicating a large fire onboard the vessel, and though no crew were injured, the status of the vessel remains unknown ATT. AC: The attack is suspected to be Iranian in origin as this vessel has ties to Israel, and the crew denoscription of the aircraft matches the Iranian Shahed 136 kamikaze drone. However, this is not confirmed ATT.
-HomeFront-
NY: Very little information has been made public following the Niagara border crossing incident. Despite all officials stating that the incident was not a terror attack, many agencies remain at an elevated threat posture. Counterterrorism force-projection measures and presence patrols continue as well. Authorities have released the identities of the two occupants killed in the explosion as Kurt and Monica Villani.
AZ: Derek Chauvin was stabbed multiple times at the Federal Correctional Institution in Tucson. As of this morning his condition is stable, and he is expected to survive the attack. AC: There is no indication of how a high-risk prisoner would have been in a situation for this attack to occur. The timing of this attack is also highly suspect, when viewed in the context of recent developments with his case. This incident comes two weeks after Chauvin filed a motion to request a new trial on his civil rights count, citing new witness testimony that would have exonerated him on that count. This incident also comes a few days after Chauvin filed for appeal of his murder conviction with the US Supreme Court on the grounds that the original judge refused to sequester the jury, the media appearances by several jurors that indicated irregularities, and at least one juror who lied about being affiliated with the BLM movement during the trial, and that the same juror had attended a rally in support of George Floyd before the trial. The US Supreme Court denied this appeal without comment five days before his attack.
-Analyst Comments-
Gaslighting as become the chief form of international diplomacy, as evidenced by everything from the Israeli war, to the terror attack in Dublin. For instance, the NY Times ran the following headline this morning: [‘It Snowballed’: How a Knife Attack in Dublin Led to a Riot. The violence in Ireland’s capital on Thursday night was fueled by far-right agitators who spread rumors online about an attack on three children earlier that day.]. The content of the article suggests that the “rumors” cited in the subheading refer to the man’s Algerian descent (which has not been officially confirmed by authorities). However, the wording of this subheading alone indicates that the attack itself was the rumor. This is a textbook gaslighting attempt intended to downplay the severity of the terror attack.
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All MSM corporations have been covering the riots, but very little coverage exists regarding the attacker. As authorities have released almost zero details officially (such as the attacker’s name), unofficial reports and unconfirmed HUMINT is really the best we can do ATT. However, some media outlets have specific details about the attacker as he was allegedly known to police in the area. Though single-source reporting that cannot be confirmed ATT, some media outlets are reporting that the suspect was charged with the possession of a knife in May, but was not convicted due to mental issues.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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