기승전인플레

(받은글)

중국 리오프닝 -> 유가/천연가스 상승 -> 인플레
중국 락다운 -> 공급망 악화 -> 인플레
우크라이나 전쟁 -> 공급망 악화 -> 인플레
우크라이나 휴전 -> 재건수요 증가 -> 인플레
양적긴축 -> 공급망이랑 노상관 -> 인플레
양적완화 -> 유동성 증가 -> 인플레

금일 아주 중요한 이벤트가 있습니다. 러시아 원유 부족분을 opec+가 증산을 해주느냐 그렇지 않느냐 기로에 있는 중요한 이벤트입니다.
증산을 해주면 인플레 우려를 한 시름 놓고 가겠지요.
분명히 6월(5월 물가)cpi는 5월(4월 물가)보다 높게 나올 확률이 높아 보입니다. 미국 가솔린, 디젤 그리고 여객 운임도 4월보다 높은 상황입니다.
바이든도 사우디와의 관계 개선을 위해 사우디 방문을 추진하고 있습니다. 부디 잘 해결되길 바래 봅니다. (그런데 러샤도 사우디를 방문 했습니다. 누구 편을 들어 줄 것인지....)

OPEC+ 쪼개지나…"러시아 빼고 증산합의 저울질"
https://www.mk.co.kr/news/world/view/2022/06/482533/

“바이든, 사우디 방문 추진”…얼어붙은 미-사우디 관계 풀릴까
https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/international/america/1045438.html

아래는 파이낸셜 타임즈 기사 원문 일부입니다.

Saudi Arabia ready to pump more oil if Russian output sinks under ban

But that could change as the global economic recovery from Covid-19, including the reopening of major cities in China, boosts demand, while the likelihood of Russia’s oil output declining substantially has increased. Russia was producing more than 10 per cent of global crude before its invasion of Ukraine.

There have been tensions between the US and the Saudi leadership, including with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly rejected calls from the White House and the G7 to accelerate production increases immediately.

But several visits in recent weeks from a high-level US delegation, including Brett McGurk, White House co-ordinator for Middle East policy, and Amos Hochstein, White House energy envoy, have helped improve the relationship, according to a person familiar with the diplomacy.

People familiar with the talks said Saudi Arabia had agreed to a shift in tone to try to calm prices as part of a rapprochement with Joe Biden’s administration. It has also offered reassurances that it would eventually respond by raising production should a supply crunch hit the oil market.

“Such steps are in the realm of the possible in response to materially positive movement on the US side,” said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator familiar with the leadership’s thinking, referring to efforts to smooth relations ahead of a possible visit by President Biden this year.

One diplomatic source said there had been discussions about an immediate increase in production from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which could be announced at Thursday’s Opec+ meeting. But nothing has yet been finalised, and Opec+ could still stick with its production plan that has been in place since the beginning of the Covid crisis.

Production increases scheduled for September would be brought forward to July and August, the source said, although the group would have to approve the change.

Christyan Malek, head of oil and gas at JPMorgan, said Saudi Arabia was still “wary of using up all its spare capacity” as “it believes it needs enough in reserve to be able to respond to what may well develop in the market”.

“While burning through all its spare capacity now would be premature, they are willing to respond if the market starts to get out of control. They view spare capacity as the last line of defence against the recessionary risk of oil spiralling higher.”

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the half-brother of the crown prince, has emphasised that he still views Russia as a critical partner in the Opec+ alliance. The countries have led the expanded oil producers group since 2016.

However, Moscow could be offered an exemption from its output target should its production decline substantially. Both Libya and Iran have previously been made exempt from Opec+ targets when war and sanctions hampered their ability to produce.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is visiting Riyadh this week, meeting his Saudi and UAE counterparts. They reaffirmed their agreement to keep co-operating in Opec+. The oil exporters’ group cut output sharply in April 2020 but has been adding back some production each month.

“Even as Saudi-US relations move towards rapprochement, the kingdom is not going to turn its back on Russia,” said Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects, a consultancy.