Crypto Narratives – Telegram
Crypto Narratives
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Link to my "Crypto Narratives" newsletter : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/

Link to my Twitter profile : https://twitter.com/thedefivillain

Link to the TG degen channel : https://news.1rj.ru/str/shitcoinsandgems
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This is your new risk-on signal
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The fact that there can be so wild swings in the market share of the meme launchpad market should imply a discount on their valuations

There is no moat in these businesses
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$IBIT / $QQQ is up a measly 20% from its March 2024 highs and mfers here calling for a multi-year top on BTC lmao

Not gonna happen
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Someone has been TWAP buying $3M worth of $MYX on Bitget for 3 hours and it stopped around 30 minutes ago

Now the same entity (I suppose?) has filled the orderbook with $600k on the bid side

I guess their plan is to make the perp shorts bleed hard for hours again

And then what are they going to do with their $3M worth of MYX tokens ?
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The main hurdle for Saylor right now is that people don't realize how mispriced the preferred shares are

He wants to lever up but the market is slowing him down

But $STRF and $STRK will re-price higher, I have no doubt about it

Maybe $STRC, their "iPhone moment" according to Saylor, was the instrument needed for everyone to wake up

Floodgates open then
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Crypto Narratives
The main hurdle for Saylor right now is that people don't realize how mispriced the preferred shares are He wants to lever up but the market is slowing him down But $STRF and $STRK will re-price higher, I have no doubt about it Maybe $STRC, their "iPhone…
Just think about how many people would be interested in a 9% APR stablecoin issued by MSTR that is available through their brokerage accounts

Massive demand incoming
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Crypto Narratives
https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-august-7
Recap of past 2 weeks :

- $BTC resisted to the 80k whale selling dump and the FOMC dump but suffered on the early month tradfi dump. Bottomed at $112k, before bouncing back to $117k

- $ETH is very strong and is outperforming BTC, thanks to huge inflows from ETH treasury companies and ETFs. Currently above $3900

- Several altcoin treasury companies announced, they always get frontrun and then the news is sold : $SUI $BNB $LTC $TON. $ENA remains strong and has been the most successful alt tco so far.

- $ZORA reached $1bn FDV after a 12x, and is now looking strong again post dip.

- After 3 weeks of underwhelming PA, $PUMP is progressively rising (up +50% from $2.3bn bottom) and reclaiming market share

- $MYX pumped 20x in 3 days with very negative funding rate : blatant crime

- Saylor IPO'd his new preferred share $STRC and used the $2.5bn proceeds to buy BTC. No more ATM on MSTR below 2.5x mNAV.
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Hate it or love it, but you don't get bearish on $ETH when the $BMNR mNAV is expanding
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It feels like we're repeating the BTC short squeeze move to $123K on $ETH now

(I am not saying that it'll mark a local top but rather that we are getting a lot of fuel from shorts getting liquidated here)
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We're reaching price levels on $ETH where the drawdown risk is too large to feel comfy on any dip

And the upside is unclear to me, we could go to $4.5k, $6k, or more, I personally don't have conviction on price targets

I'll mostly react on what signs I get from the tradfi side (ETH tco + ETFs) as they are the ones determining our fate
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The fact that $STRF was trading at $85 at some point is great evidence that the MSTR preferred stocks are very misunderstood, and mispriced.

They will go higher in price, Saylor will be able to issue more, he will buy more $BTC, the mNAV will increase, and $MSTR will outperform BTC

What the last earnings call suggested is that they are simply going to lever up with prefs, which is the best form of leverage they have discovered for a BTC treasury company

They have a lot of room to grow these prefs and increase their leverage ratio.
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Take the 50 highest FDV coins launched in 2024/2025

At least 2/3 of them look like decent inverse investments

(paired against BTC+ETH to reduce risk)
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Crypto Narratives
The new preferred share of Saylor, $STRC had an IPO price of $90, is currently trading at $94, and is supposed to float around $100 "Free" 6% arb ? I'd say so :)
The free arb was free

Once $STRC will be trading at $100, Saylor will be able to issue more into the market, and all that money will be funneled into $BTC

I wonder how much capacity he's going to have in the coming weeks. It will probably be very slow in the beginning
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$BMNR bought $1.2bn worth of $ETH last week lmao

And given the performance of the stock, they are going to do it again this week

I believe BMNR is the most important asset to track right now to have a short-term view on crypto prices
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Shorting $IP now

Adding more until $6.7
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Crypto Narratives
It just looks very unlikely to me that the ETH treasury companies mania can only last 2 weeks They should clearly still be able to deploy more, which will push $ETH price higher
Despite the early August dump, it was correct to expect the ETH treasury company mania to last for longer

The momentum in alts has been killed in late July though, and we are now in a very strange situation where the clear leader of this market is $ETH

We are very reliant on people bidding the ETH treasury companies. It feels like it's quite early, but things are going so fast that we can expect the trend to exhaust early too

The great thing about treasury companies is that when the mNAV compresses to 1, there should theoretically be more and more buyers looking for a "cheap entry". So we can very well see the mNAV collapse and then bounce again for another leg, just like a week ago.

I tend to think the ETH treasury trade is still not over, but I am also not particularly bulled up about alts, so mostly running long BTC+ETH / short alts, with a bullish skew.

Alts are decently strong (their price action vs BTC is surprisingly resilient), but it's essentially a second order effect of ETH pumping, so I would argue it's somewhat of a "fake" strength. The evidence for that is the OTHERS/ETH chart being down only.

Strange situation and market, especially in the middle of August.
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$1bn $ETH ETF inflows in one day
$BMNR up 2x in a week

ETH is just speedrunning it all

While most coins are barely moving

Pretty crazy to see
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It's great to see $ETH giga send in a few weeks with multi billion inflows

But don't forget that your downside risk after this kind of spiky move is much larger vs the steady multi-month uptrend on $BTC

For now we ride, but you should de-risk on the way up instead of the other way around
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