Hate it or love it, but you don't get bearish on $ETH when the $BMNR mNAV is expanding
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It feels like we're repeating the BTC short squeeze move to $123K on $ETH now
(I am not saying that it'll mark a local top but rather that we are getting a lot of fuel from shorts getting liquidated here)
(I am not saying that it'll mark a local top but rather that we are getting a lot of fuel from shorts getting liquidated here)
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We're reaching price levels on $ETH where the drawdown risk is too large to feel comfy on any dip
And the upside is unclear to me, we could go to $4.5k, $6k, or more, I personally don't have conviction on price targets
I'll mostly react on what signs I get from the tradfi side (ETH tco + ETFs) as they are the ones determining our fate
And the upside is unclear to me, we could go to $4.5k, $6k, or more, I personally don't have conviction on price targets
I'll mostly react on what signs I get from the tradfi side (ETH tco + ETFs) as they are the ones determining our fate
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The fact that $STRF was trading at $85 at some point is great evidence that the MSTR preferred stocks are very misunderstood, and mispriced.
They will go higher in price, Saylor will be able to issue more, he will buy more $BTC, the mNAV will increase, and $MSTR will outperform BTC
What the last earnings call suggested is that they are simply going to lever up with prefs, which is the best form of leverage they have discovered for a BTC treasury company
They have a lot of room to grow these prefs and increase their leverage ratio.
They will go higher in price, Saylor will be able to issue more, he will buy more $BTC, the mNAV will increase, and $MSTR will outperform BTC
What the last earnings call suggested is that they are simply going to lever up with prefs, which is the best form of leverage they have discovered for a BTC treasury company
They have a lot of room to grow these prefs and increase their leverage ratio.
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Take the 50 highest FDV coins launched in 2024/2025
At least 2/3 of them look like decent inverse investments
(paired against BTC+ETH to reduce risk)
At least 2/3 of them look like decent inverse investments
(paired against BTC+ETH to reduce risk)
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Crypto Narratives
The new preferred share of Saylor, $STRC had an IPO price of $90, is currently trading at $94, and is supposed to float around $100 "Free" 6% arb ? I'd say so :)
The free arb was free
Once $STRC will be trading at $100, Saylor will be able to issue more into the market, and all that money will be funneled into $BTC
I wonder how much capacity he's going to have in the coming weeks. It will probably be very slow in the beginning
Once $STRC will be trading at $100, Saylor will be able to issue more into the market, and all that money will be funneled into $BTC
I wonder how much capacity he's going to have in the coming weeks. It will probably be very slow in the beginning
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$BMNR bought $1.2bn worth of $ETH last week lmao
And given the performance of the stock, they are going to do it again this week
I believe BMNR is the most important asset to track right now to have a short-term view on crypto prices
And given the performance of the stock, they are going to do it again this week
I believe BMNR is the most important asset to track right now to have a short-term view on crypto prices
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Crypto Narratives
It just looks very unlikely to me that the ETH treasury companies mania can only last 2 weeks They should clearly still be able to deploy more, which will push $ETH price higher
Despite the early August dump, it was correct to expect the ETH treasury company mania to last for longer
The momentum in alts has been killed in late July though, and we are now in a very strange situation where the clear leader of this market is $ETH
We are very reliant on people bidding the ETH treasury companies. It feels like it's quite early, but things are going so fast that we can expect the trend to exhaust early too
The great thing about treasury companies is that when the mNAV compresses to 1, there should theoretically be more and more buyers looking for a "cheap entry". So we can very well see the mNAV collapse and then bounce again for another leg, just like a week ago.
I tend to think the ETH treasury trade is still not over, but I am also not particularly bulled up about alts, so mostly running long BTC+ETH / short alts, with a bullish skew.
Alts are decently strong (their price action vs BTC is surprisingly resilient), but it's essentially a second order effect of ETH pumping, so I would argue it's somewhat of a "fake" strength. The evidence for that is the OTHERS/ETH chart being down only.
Strange situation and market, especially in the middle of August.
The momentum in alts has been killed in late July though, and we are now in a very strange situation where the clear leader of this market is $ETH
We are very reliant on people bidding the ETH treasury companies. It feels like it's quite early, but things are going so fast that we can expect the trend to exhaust early too
The great thing about treasury companies is that when the mNAV compresses to 1, there should theoretically be more and more buyers looking for a "cheap entry". So we can very well see the mNAV collapse and then bounce again for another leg, just like a week ago.
I tend to think the ETH treasury trade is still not over, but I am also not particularly bulled up about alts, so mostly running long BTC+ETH / short alts, with a bullish skew.
Alts are decently strong (their price action vs BTC is surprisingly resilient), but it's essentially a second order effect of ETH pumping, so I would argue it's somewhat of a "fake" strength. The evidence for that is the OTHERS/ETH chart being down only.
Strange situation and market, especially in the middle of August.
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$1bn $ETH ETF inflows in one day
$BMNR up 2x in a week
ETH is just speedrunning it all
While most coins are barely moving
Pretty crazy to see
$BMNR up 2x in a week
ETH is just speedrunning it all
While most coins are barely moving
Pretty crazy to see
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It's great to see $ETH giga send in a few weeks with multi billion inflows
But don't forget that your downside risk after this kind of spiky move is much larger vs the steady multi-month uptrend on $BTC
For now we ride, but you should de-risk on the way up instead of the other way around
But don't forget that your downside risk after this kind of spiky move is much larger vs the steady multi-month uptrend on $BTC
For now we ride, but you should de-risk on the way up instead of the other way around
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Have you ever heard about this notion of taking profits in 3 chunks
The first one will usually be before the top, the second close to the top, and the third after the top.
I'd say we are at the first one here
The first one will usually be before the top, the second close to the top, and the third after the top.
I'd say we are at the first one here
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Crypto Narratives
Have you ever heard about this notion of taking profits in 3 chunks The first one will usually be before the top, the second close to the top, and the third after the top. I'd say we are at the first one here
I am mostly talking about $ETH here, no spot TP on BTC at these prices for me
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Given the size of the ETH wick on Hyperliquid, I think the $ETH bottom should be in locally
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Crypto Narratives
Despite the early August dump, it was correct to expect the ETH treasury company mania to last for longer The momentum in alts has been killed in late July though, and we are now in a very strange situation where the clear leader of this market is $ETH We…
Long BTC+ETH / short alts is the trade I feel the safest in
I run it with a bullish skew (ie I am net long), I add a few alt longs on the ones I like, and I try to mostly target weak alts for shorts
I run it with a bullish skew (ie I am net long), I add a few alt longs on the ones I like, and I try to mostly target weak alts for shorts
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Different categories of good altcoin shorts :
- Old coin that is still very large in mcap, was hot several months ago but not anymore (RNDR)
- Coin that got recently crimed up until a squeeze climax (LAYER)
- High FDV low float large cap (WLD)
- High FDV low float mid cap (KAITO)
- Coin that recently pumped hard but momentum died (MOODENG)
- Coin that had an event-driven unsustainable vertical pump (HYPER)
- Coin that is selling some news (IP)
- Coin that was pushed up in a very hot narrative that is now dead (AI16Z)
- Old coin with low mindshare (MINA)
- New coin that pumped very hard immediately after TGE and now has gravity (M)
- Old coin that is still very large in mcap, was hot several months ago but not anymore (RNDR)
- Coin that got recently crimed up until a squeeze climax (LAYER)
- High FDV low float large cap (WLD)
- High FDV low float mid cap (KAITO)
- Coin that recently pumped hard but momentum died (MOODENG)
- Coin that had an event-driven unsustainable vertical pump (HYPER)
- Coin that is selling some news (IP)
- Coin that was pushed up in a very hot narrative that is now dead (AI16Z)
- Old coin with low mindshare (MINA)
- New coin that pumped very hard immediately after TGE and now has gravity (M)
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