I am a huge fan of the value vs momentum framework that
Avi Felman mentions very often

Clearly the momentum has been killed on BTC, so now we are waiting on value buyers to show up.

They usually tend to step in when we are making new lows vs the past the 2 months : $108k-$111k

Also don't forget that we went basically up only from $75k to $110k, that was some pretty insane PA and a +50% move in like 45 days. It takes some time to digest this.

$110k was looking like a stretch when we were trading at $80k just 5 months ago, and it's now the current price. But this time it's the bottom of a range so people are freaking out about it.

What the crime is going on

$SAROS

He's back at selling $MSTR shares as if the mNAV guidance had never existed

I think he realized it was not a good idea to issue it in the first place

Maybe he got some calls from large shareholders (these are not the people fuding MSTR on CT but people with actual size kek)

What's obvious though is that the narrative about the ATM keeping the price down was clearly stupid : the MSTR/IBIT ratio went DOWN after Saylor said he wouldn't sell MSTR shares below 2.5x mNAV, and didn't sell MSTR shares for 3 weeks.

Was it a good idea to issue the mNAV guidance initially ?

No

Was it a good idea to rectify it as soon as possible ?

Yes

The number of smart people who are bullish on $BTC but think that $MSTR should trade at 1x mNAV is a clear indication that the MSTR trade is not over

How many times are we going to fade this thing that works so well ?

Why is BERA strong ?

Because people are frontrunning a $BERA DAT

HyperLiquid spot market for $BTC where the whale is selling BTC to buy ETH

With $HYPE you must ignore the FDV so that you don't get FUDed out of your long, but you can't completely forget it to avoid having unrealistic targets

It's a slow coin that is always healthily trending up, which makes it a comfortable asset to hold and trade

"The upcoming bear market is going to be so juicy in terms of short opportunities"

Most coins are always in a bear market, dawg

Great to see this

$STRC

At some point people will understand that this thing has a magnet to $100 and they will be willing to take the arb closer and closer to $100

And then

Flywheel

Do you know what happens to the MSTR preferred shares when the rates get cut and decrease ?

Their yield becomes more interesting, so their price should go up

Which means Saylor can accretively issue more of them to purchase $BTC

It doesn't make any sense to be bullish on BTC and expect rate cuts while also expecting MSTR to collapse.

Each time $SOL taps this trendline, it's a short

Is this time different ?

The bull case is that there is a clear acceleration in the frequency of the trendline hits

I want to short it

I just don't know if it goes for another leg first

$PYTH

In that situation I open a short but if it reaches an invalidation I would close half of it

I don’t think there should be a lot of continuation on this GDP news but who knows. CRO has ran extremely hard after the Trump Media news

$BIO
$NMR
$CRO
$PYTH
$ALU
$ZORA

Each time a coin spikes massively, you should add it to your watchlist for potential shorts

It's obviously not easy to spot when they are exhausted, but gravity does its job at some point

The ETHBTC whale has rotated 37k $BTC into $ETH so far and still holds 47k BTC

Almost halfway through if we expect him to rotate all of his stack, which is not certain at all

Every time $BTC suddenly starts selling off 'sharply' on the 1-minute candle, you can go check if there is volume on the Hyperliquid spot contract to confirm that it's once again the ETHBTC rotating whale