Surprise surprise

$SAROS

To me it's screamingly obvious that Tom Lee is not a better Saylor (and ETH not a better r/r long than BTC over 1y)... at least YET.
Maybe in a few years, who knows.

But right now, Saylor is considered as the madman who would rather file for bankruptcy rather than sell a single BTC.
Tom Lee ? A trader who is a profit maxi, and doesn't give the feeling that he's a diamond hand.

You simply can't build 2 years of trust in 3 months.
Saylor is a BTC maxi, his only focus is MSTR and BTC, whereas Bitmine is not even the sole focus of Tom Lee, he is still managing Fundstrat and offering equities ETFs.

This massively exacerbates the downside risk on ETH vs BTC

And you can feel that with market participants :

- BTC bulls are absolutely unbothered when BTC dips, no price target, this thing is going to $1M

- On the ETH side, any dip is met with unease and 'cycle top?' concerns, and most people are looking to offload above $5k, they don't want to be holding it during the ETH bear market

The biggest copium argument to justify ETH treasury companies being fundamentally better than BTC treasury companies is the staking yield.

The ETH staking yield is way too small to be relevant.

It is an order of magnitude too small compared to the "financial engineering yield" a treasury company can generate during the good times. (75% increase in BTC per share for MSTR in 2024...)

And it is also an order of magnitude too small to prevent the mNAV to trade at a discount during the hard times. (MSTR mNAV went to 0.5x-0.6x in 2022, it's not a 2% staking yield that would help a lot in this situation).

At the end of the day, the most important factor is the CAGR of the underlying.

If you think the long term CAGR is higher for ETH than for BTC, then just say that, but don't invent a narrative where the staking yield explains that higher CAGR...

I don't think we're going down another -20% as in early 2025 but that fractal is making bears wet

I am a huge fan of the value vs momentum framework that
Avi Felman mentions very often

Clearly the momentum has been killed on BTC, so now we are waiting on value buyers to show up.

They usually tend to step in when we are making new lows vs the past the 2 months : $108k-$111k

Also don't forget that we went basically up only from $75k to $110k, that was some pretty insane PA and a +50% move in like 45 days. It takes some time to digest this.

$110k was looking like a stretch when we were trading at $80k just 5 months ago, and it's now the current price. But this time it's the bottom of a range so people are freaking out about it.

What the crime is going on

$SAROS

He's back at selling $MSTR shares as if the mNAV guidance had never existed

I think he realized it was not a good idea to issue it in the first place

Maybe he got some calls from large shareholders (these are not the people fuding MSTR on CT but people with actual size kek)

What's obvious though is that the narrative about the ATM keeping the price down was clearly stupid : the MSTR/IBIT ratio went DOWN after Saylor said he wouldn't sell MSTR shares below 2.5x mNAV, and didn't sell MSTR shares for 3 weeks.

Was it a good idea to issue the mNAV guidance initially ?

No

Was it a good idea to rectify it as soon as possible ?

Yes

The number of smart people who are bullish on $BTC but think that $MSTR should trade at 1x mNAV is a clear indication that the MSTR trade is not over

How many times are we going to fade this thing that works so well ?

Why is BERA strong ?

Because people are frontrunning a $BERA DAT

HyperLiquid spot market for $BTC where the whale is selling BTC to buy ETH

With $HYPE you must ignore the FDV so that you don't get FUDed out of your long, but you can't completely forget it to avoid having unrealistic targets

It's a slow coin that is always healthily trending up, which makes it a comfortable asset to hold and trade

"The upcoming bear market is going to be so juicy in terms of short opportunities"

Most coins are always in a bear market, dawg

Great to see this

$STRC

At some point people will understand that this thing has a magnet to $100 and they will be willing to take the arb closer and closer to $100

And then

Flywheel

Do you know what happens to the MSTR preferred shares when the rates get cut and decrease ?

Their yield becomes more interesting, so their price should go up

Which means Saylor can accretively issue more of them to purchase $BTC

It doesn't make any sense to be bullish on BTC and expect rate cuts while also expecting MSTR to collapse.

Each time $SOL taps this trendline, it's a short

Is this time different ?

The bull case is that there is a clear acceleration in the frequency of the trendline hits

I want to short it

I just don't know if it goes for another leg first

$PYTH