Crypto Narratives
Best memecoins below $1bn MC : $MOG $TRUMP $POPCAT And then I also like : $PONKE $TOSHI $SLERF $DOG $BITCOIN
The market is showing its hands on memecoins :
$MOG and $POPCAT are the hottest ones right now
It will be very interesting to see how long this continues, and how the 'Big Four' (PEPE WIF FLOKI BONK) will react to this.
One possibility is that MOG and POPCAT continue outperforming until they converge to the Big Four valuations (ie at least $1bn MC), and then there will be a rotation to these more 'established' ones.
But you can very clearly see how saturation will become an issue for memecoins.
I think $PEPE will be the safest 'long-term' memecoin because it is now the leader, and thus acts as a Schelling point.
$MOG and $POPCAT are the hottest ones right now
It will be very interesting to see how long this continues, and how the 'Big Four' (PEPE WIF FLOKI BONK) will react to this.
One possibility is that MOG and POPCAT continue outperforming until they converge to the Big Four valuations (ie at least $1bn MC), and then there will be a rotation to these more 'established' ones.
But you can very clearly see how saturation will become an issue for memecoins.
I think $PEPE will be the safest 'long-term' memecoin because it is now the leader, and thus acts as a Schelling point.
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I would be terrified to sell my long-term spot positions on "weekly trend shift" exactly because of what just happened in the last 7 days
You end up selling at a terrible price and then market gets momentum back and you feel stupid
But one day it will indeed 'be different' and then selling will be the good idea
You end up selling at a terrible price and then market gets momentum back and you feel stupid
But one day it will indeed 'be different' and then selling will be the good idea
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$WLD doing WLD things
Down -86% from top to bottom
Up +75% from bottom
A coin that likes to fck both sizes
Their scheme of yesterday (changing vesting from 3 yr to 5 yr for some unlocking tokens) does not change the preordained destination for the price of $WLD
Which is down and to the right.
But of course, first they have a lot of late short sellers to squeeze.
The more this squeezes, the safer you can feel shorting it. It's tricky to time it, though.
Down -86% from top to bottom
Up +75% from bottom
A coin that likes to fck both sizes
Their scheme of yesterday (changing vesting from 3 yr to 5 yr for some unlocking tokens) does not change the preordained destination for the price of $WLD
Which is down and to the right.
But of course, first they have a lot of late short sellers to squeeze.
The more this squeezes, the safer you can feel shorting it. It's tricky to time it, though.
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Drawdown and post-bottom bounce on a few tokens :
$TIA : -80% / +56%
$DYM : -89% / +95%
$SAGA : -88% / +86%
$ALT : -85% / +38%
$REZ : -75% / +37%
$ICP : -72% / +71%
$CORE : -81% / +66%
$MAVIA : -90% / +145%
$TNSR : -83% / +53%
$ZEUS : -88% / +81%
$TIA : -80% / +56%
$DYM : -89% / +95%
$SAGA : -88% / +86%
$ALT : -85% / +38%
$REZ : -75% / +37%
$ICP : -72% / +71%
$CORE : -81% / +66%
$MAVIA : -90% / +145%
$TNSR : -83% / +53%
$ZEUS : -88% / +81%
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Crypto Narratives
Recap of the last 2 weeks : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-july-17
Narratives of the past 2 weeks :
- $BTC broke down out of its range and bottomed below $54k amidst Germany selling $3bn worth of BTC. After a few days of ranging between $54k and $58k, $BTC pumped to $65k in 4 daily candles, after Trump's failed assassination attempt.
- SEC has scheduled a meeting with Ripple tomorrow, and $XRP has been a top performing altcoin : +40% in a week. Most of the dino coins have been strong on a relative basis during the most recent weeks.
- BlackRock plans to apply for MakerDAO's $1B tokenized treasury plan, and this piece of news lead $MKR to go up +25%. Another DeFi 1.0 coin, $AAVE, has been outperforming too.
- Most of the memecoins have pumped a lot since July 13, but $MOG and $POPCAT are clearly the hottest ones right now.
- July 5 (BTC bottom) was a massive capitulation event for some altcoins, especially the high FDV low float ones. A few of them have bounced very strongly in the recent days. $WLD is up +75% from the lows and is squeezing the short sellers after the announcement of a longer vesting for some tokens.
- $BTC broke down out of its range and bottomed below $54k amidst Germany selling $3bn worth of BTC. After a few days of ranging between $54k and $58k, $BTC pumped to $65k in 4 daily candles, after Trump's failed assassination attempt.
- SEC has scheduled a meeting with Ripple tomorrow, and $XRP has been a top performing altcoin : +40% in a week. Most of the dino coins have been strong on a relative basis during the most recent weeks.
- BlackRock plans to apply for MakerDAO's $1B tokenized treasury plan, and this piece of news lead $MKR to go up +25%. Another DeFi 1.0 coin, $AAVE, has been outperforming too.
- Most of the memecoins have pumped a lot since July 13, but $MOG and $POPCAT are clearly the hottest ones right now.
- July 5 (BTC bottom) was a massive capitulation event for some altcoins, especially the high FDV low float ones. A few of them have bounced very strongly in the recent days. $WLD is up +75% from the lows and is squeezing the short sellers after the announcement of a longer vesting for some tokens.
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The WazirX hacker still holds $80M worth of $SHIB (that he is slowly selling) and the price of SHIB is not even down -10%
There's a large risk of squeeze, and at some point people will start frontrunning the end of the selling, but I think the price still has lower to go
Maybe the least risky way to do this is to short any strong low time frame bounce as long as the hacker still holds a lot of $SHIB
There's a large risk of squeeze, and at some point people will start frontrunning the end of the selling, but I think the price still has lower to go
Maybe the least risky way to do this is to short any strong low time frame bounce as long as the hacker still holds a lot of $SHIB
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Crypto Narratives
The WazirX hacker still holds $80M worth of $SHIB (that he is slowly selling) and the price of SHIB is not even down -10% There's a large risk of squeeze, and at some point people will start frontrunning the end of the selling, but I think the price still…
The hacker just sold almost $15M with a fairly limited impact.
Given that he has $60M left, I am not sure it still makes sense to be short $SHIB as the risk of squeeze increases.
I am out of that short.
Given that he has $60M left, I am not sure it still makes sense to be short $SHIB as the risk of squeeze increases.
I am out of that short.
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One of the best risk-adjusted strategies to make large gains is to get very exposed at the beginning of an uptrend, and lower the risk progressively as prices go up.
The recent price action suggests that the bottom (54k) is very likely in, so what we're targeting is new highs. (That's my assumption at least)
Now the question is : how do we get there ? Up swiftly ? Or more chop first ?
In the last 12 months, we've had two periods of uptrends, one started in late October 2023 and one in late January 2024.
In both cases, the market did not offer any meaningful drawdown once it started pumping. So there's a high likelihood that the same is happening this time.
We already pumped from $57k to $65k without pullbacks. Of course, getting positioned very long below $58k would have been the best way to maximize exposure early in an uptrend, but that's now a thing of the past anyway.
The recent price action suggests that the bottom (54k) is very likely in, so what we're targeting is new highs. (That's my assumption at least)
Now the question is : how do we get there ? Up swiftly ? Or more chop first ?
In the last 12 months, we've had two periods of uptrends, one started in late October 2023 and one in late January 2024.
In both cases, the market did not offer any meaningful drawdown once it started pumping. So there's a high likelihood that the same is happening this time.
We already pumped from $57k to $65k without pullbacks. Of course, getting positioned very long below $58k would have been the best way to maximize exposure early in an uptrend, but that's now a thing of the past anyway.
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Does it still make sense to be allocated aggressively right now ? If you think that : 1/ we're targeting new highs and 2/ we're going up without offering significant dips, then yes it makes a lot of sense.
It would not be shocking either to form a higher low below the current price, but that would be too forgiving for sidelined people ? Then there's also the risk that this wasn't the bottom... which would be catastrophic for the portfolio of the bulls, but seems unlikely. And the other scenario is 'more chop in this range', but that would also surprise me.
Anyway, make sure to have invalidations for the trade you are taking based on the scenario that looks the more likely to you, AND also make sure that you don't flip giga bull much later in the uptrend, because that would be much more risky.
It would not be shocking either to form a higher low below the current price, but that would be too forgiving for sidelined people ? Then there's also the risk that this wasn't the bottom... which would be catastrophic for the portfolio of the bulls, but seems unlikely. And the other scenario is 'more chop in this range', but that would also surprise me.
Anyway, make sure to have invalidations for the trade you are taking based on the scenario that looks the more likely to you, AND also make sure that you don't flip giga bull much later in the uptrend, because that would be much more risky.
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Crypto Narratives
Since mid-April : S&P500 up roughly +10% $BTC down roughly -10% Time for a tradfi -> crypto rotation ? !pray
Since I posted this tweet :
S&P500 down -2%
$BTC up +16%
Run the rotation baby
S&P500 down -2%
$BTC up +16%
Run the rotation baby
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Crypto Narratives
Some freaking dino coins are in a bull run vs the altcoin market $TRX $XMR $XRP $ADA
If you've been using dino coins as hedge shorts (like me) for your longs, then June and the first half of July have not been comfortable on this front.
We should be back to 'business as usual' now, and they should underperform again, as they often do in bullish environments.
We should be back to 'business as usual' now, and they should underperform again, as they often do in bullish environments.
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Forwarded from Shitcoins and Gems by Viktor
$JOE and $SPX seem to be the clear winners from this list
Their charts look very good and very similar.
It’s kind of crazy how slow they move compared to say Solana memecoins (both are still below $25M mcap), but these consolidations with higher lows seem very healthy to me, and remind me of $MOG’s multi-month ranging before its giga pump.
Their charts look very good and very similar.
It’s kind of crazy how slow they move compared to say Solana memecoins (both are still below $25M mcap), but these consolidations with higher lows seem very healthy to me, and remind me of $MOG’s multi-month ranging before its giga pump.
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Now that $ZRO has pumped (and is likely to push higher), people will be looking for similar coins.
Similar can be same category (bridge ?), beta (LayerZero ecosystem ?), or similar launch timing.
I am mostly interested in the VC coins that launched at about the same time.
The full list is : $ZK $TAIKO $ATH $IO $BLAST
In this list, I mostly like $ZK (I wrote a few times that it was undervalued on a relative basis), $TAIKO (no strong opinion on it but it simply shows strength), and now also $BLAST.
BLAST is a VC coin, an L2, and it still trades below $2bn FDV, which seems really low given its large mindshare, and potential for a hated rally.
TAIKO FDV is 30% higher while being way less known and way smaller in TVL. BLAST has also been trading at something like $5-$6bn in pre-markets a few months ago iirc, and I think it definitely could get back there if the market remains risk-on.
Similar can be same category (bridge ?), beta (LayerZero ecosystem ?), or similar launch timing.
I am mostly interested in the VC coins that launched at about the same time.
The full list is : $ZK $TAIKO $ATH $IO $BLAST
In this list, I mostly like $ZK (I wrote a few times that it was undervalued on a relative basis), $TAIKO (no strong opinion on it but it simply shows strength), and now also $BLAST.
BLAST is a VC coin, an L2, and it still trades below $2bn FDV, which seems really low given its large mindshare, and potential for a hated rally.
TAIKO FDV is 30% higher while being way less known and way smaller in TVL. BLAST has also been trading at something like $5-$6bn in pre-markets a few months ago iirc, and I think it definitely could get back there if the market remains risk-on.
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It's become clear now that the funding rates are not providing very valuable info anymore, mostly because of Ethena that mechanically pushes it down.
This means that it's harder to know when the market is over-leveraged, but in the same time, you don't have to pay insane funding fees for weeks, and that is pretty cool.
This means that it's harder to know when the market is over-leveraged, but in the same time, you don't have to pay insane funding fees for weeks, and that is pretty cool.
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Dips are shallow and quickly bought
Lots of people are still sidelined and mentally ready to short / derisk
It makes sense to remain bullish and ready to buy dips
Don't do the mistake of getting more bullish as price goes up, though
Lots of people are still sidelined and mentally ready to short / derisk
It makes sense to remain bullish and ready to buy dips
Don't do the mistake of getting more bullish as price goes up, though
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