One of the best risk-adjusted strategies to make large gains is to get very exposed at the beginning of an uptrend, and lower the risk progressively as prices go up.
The recent price action suggests that the bottom (54k) is very likely in, so what we're targeting is new highs. (That's my assumption at least)
Now the question is : how do we get there ? Up swiftly ? Or more chop first ?
In the last 12 months, we've had two periods of uptrends, one started in late October 2023 and one in late January 2024.
In both cases, the market did not offer any meaningful drawdown once it started pumping. So there's a high likelihood that the same is happening this time.
We already pumped from $57k to $65k without pullbacks. Of course, getting positioned very long below $58k would have been the best way to maximize exposure early in an uptrend, but that's now a thing of the past anyway.
The recent price action suggests that the bottom (54k) is very likely in, so what we're targeting is new highs. (That's my assumption at least)
Now the question is : how do we get there ? Up swiftly ? Or more chop first ?
In the last 12 months, we've had two periods of uptrends, one started in late October 2023 and one in late January 2024.
In both cases, the market did not offer any meaningful drawdown once it started pumping. So there's a high likelihood that the same is happening this time.
We already pumped from $57k to $65k without pullbacks. Of course, getting positioned very long below $58k would have been the best way to maximize exposure early in an uptrend, but that's now a thing of the past anyway.
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Does it still make sense to be allocated aggressively right now ? If you think that : 1/ we're targeting new highs and 2/ we're going up without offering significant dips, then yes it makes a lot of sense.
It would not be shocking either to form a higher low below the current price, but that would be too forgiving for sidelined people ? Then there's also the risk that this wasn't the bottom... which would be catastrophic for the portfolio of the bulls, but seems unlikely. And the other scenario is 'more chop in this range', but that would also surprise me.
Anyway, make sure to have invalidations for the trade you are taking based on the scenario that looks the more likely to you, AND also make sure that you don't flip giga bull much later in the uptrend, because that would be much more risky.
It would not be shocking either to form a higher low below the current price, but that would be too forgiving for sidelined people ? Then there's also the risk that this wasn't the bottom... which would be catastrophic for the portfolio of the bulls, but seems unlikely. And the other scenario is 'more chop in this range', but that would also surprise me.
Anyway, make sure to have invalidations for the trade you are taking based on the scenario that looks the more likely to you, AND also make sure that you don't flip giga bull much later in the uptrend, because that would be much more risky.
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Crypto Narratives
Since mid-April : S&P500 up roughly +10% $BTC down roughly -10% Time for a tradfi -> crypto rotation ? !pray
Since I posted this tweet :
S&P500 down -2%
$BTC up +16%
Run the rotation baby
S&P500 down -2%
$BTC up +16%
Run the rotation baby
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Crypto Narratives
Some freaking dino coins are in a bull run vs the altcoin market $TRX $XMR $XRP $ADA
If you've been using dino coins as hedge shorts (like me) for your longs, then June and the first half of July have not been comfortable on this front.
We should be back to 'business as usual' now, and they should underperform again, as they often do in bullish environments.
We should be back to 'business as usual' now, and they should underperform again, as they often do in bullish environments.
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Forwarded from Shitcoins and Gems by Viktor
$JOE and $SPX seem to be the clear winners from this list
Their charts look very good and very similar.
It’s kind of crazy how slow they move compared to say Solana memecoins (both are still below $25M mcap), but these consolidations with higher lows seem very healthy to me, and remind me of $MOG’s multi-month ranging before its giga pump.
Their charts look very good and very similar.
It’s kind of crazy how slow they move compared to say Solana memecoins (both are still below $25M mcap), but these consolidations with higher lows seem very healthy to me, and remind me of $MOG’s multi-month ranging before its giga pump.
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Now that $ZRO has pumped (and is likely to push higher), people will be looking for similar coins.
Similar can be same category (bridge ?), beta (LayerZero ecosystem ?), or similar launch timing.
I am mostly interested in the VC coins that launched at about the same time.
The full list is : $ZK $TAIKO $ATH $IO $BLAST
In this list, I mostly like $ZK (I wrote a few times that it was undervalued on a relative basis), $TAIKO (no strong opinion on it but it simply shows strength), and now also $BLAST.
BLAST is a VC coin, an L2, and it still trades below $2bn FDV, which seems really low given its large mindshare, and potential for a hated rally.
TAIKO FDV is 30% higher while being way less known and way smaller in TVL. BLAST has also been trading at something like $5-$6bn in pre-markets a few months ago iirc, and I think it definitely could get back there if the market remains risk-on.
Similar can be same category (bridge ?), beta (LayerZero ecosystem ?), or similar launch timing.
I am mostly interested in the VC coins that launched at about the same time.
The full list is : $ZK $TAIKO $ATH $IO $BLAST
In this list, I mostly like $ZK (I wrote a few times that it was undervalued on a relative basis), $TAIKO (no strong opinion on it but it simply shows strength), and now also $BLAST.
BLAST is a VC coin, an L2, and it still trades below $2bn FDV, which seems really low given its large mindshare, and potential for a hated rally.
TAIKO FDV is 30% higher while being way less known and way smaller in TVL. BLAST has also been trading at something like $5-$6bn in pre-markets a few months ago iirc, and I think it definitely could get back there if the market remains risk-on.
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It's become clear now that the funding rates are not providing very valuable info anymore, mostly because of Ethena that mechanically pushes it down.
This means that it's harder to know when the market is over-leveraged, but in the same time, you don't have to pay insane funding fees for weeks, and that is pretty cool.
This means that it's harder to know when the market is over-leveraged, but in the same time, you don't have to pay insane funding fees for weeks, and that is pretty cool.
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Dips are shallow and quickly bought
Lots of people are still sidelined and mentally ready to short / derisk
It makes sense to remain bullish and ready to buy dips
Don't do the mistake of getting more bullish as price goes up, though
Lots of people are still sidelined and mentally ready to short / derisk
It makes sense to remain bullish and ready to buy dips
Don't do the mistake of getting more bullish as price goes up, though
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The new meta when you are a token that everybody wants to short because of some meaningful unlock coming is to change the vesting one day before just to fck the short sellers.
It's quite sneaky and won't save your 10% float token.
If you want to short these things, be aware that you are in a PvP both versus the other traders and the team.
It's quite sneaky and won't save your 10% float token.
If you want to short these things, be aware that you are in a PvP both versus the other traders and the team.
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Mt. Gox BTC being distributed on Kraken (only a portion of all gox coins) with $BTC barely moving
5% of Grayscale ETH already sold on day 1
100M net inflows on day one for $ETH ETF
Yep, dips are for buying
5% of Grayscale ETH already sold on day 1
100M net inflows on day one for $ETH ETF
Yep, dips are for buying
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In early June, $BTC was unable to pump on good news
Now, $BTC is unable to dump on bad news
I dunno, I just can't bring myself to be anything else than bullish
It will feel obvious in hindsight
Now, $BTC is unable to dump on bad news
I dunno, I just can't bring myself to be anything else than bullish
It will feel obvious in hindsight
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Crypto Narratives
In early June, $BTC was unable to pump on good news Now, $BTC is unable to dump on bad news I dunno, I just can't bring myself to be anything else than bullish It will feel obvious in hindsight
Another dip eaten in 24h on $BTC
One of the bear cases is that people are short-term positioned for Trump's speech at the BTC conference and that they are going to sell the news
I remain bullish though
One of the bear cases is that people are short-term positioned for Trump's speech at the BTC conference and that they are going to sell the news
I remain bullish though
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Crypto Narratives
Another dip eaten in 24h on $BTC One of the bear cases is that people are short-term positioned for Trump's speech at the BTC conference and that they are going to sell the news I remain bullish though
-4% dip on $BTC and we already retraced 60% of that drawdown
The target is a new ATH for BTC
The target is a new ATH for BTC
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There have only been 3 altcoin narratives that stood out in terms of performance in the last 2 weeks :
- $SOL and its ecosystem coins
- Cat coins (MEW POPCAT MOG)
- Ordinals (SATS RATS ORDI)
- $SOL and its ecosystem coins
- Cat coins (MEW POPCAT MOG)
- Ordinals (SATS RATS ORDI)
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I am usually not too interested in the memecoins that all of CT talk about 10h after launch
Besides $NEIRO, the 'recent' examples I can think of are :
$BALD
$BOME
$SLERF
$DJT
They can either 10x in a few hours or go to zero swiftly
Usually these coins quickly have a lot of holders with 6 or 7 fig profits and that's why they have the cabale vibes (among other things)
I like it WAY MORE when the meme develops progressively or when there are long periods of consolidation/range and the supply gets distributed into stronger hands with higher timeframes
Some people are trading the exact opposite way : ape the new launches very early and sometimes you will get a 100x in a day. You just have to know what your trading style is, and where your edge is.
Besides $NEIRO, the 'recent' examples I can think of are :
$BALD
$BOME
$SLERF
$DJT
They can either 10x in a few hours or go to zero swiftly
Usually these coins quickly have a lot of holders with 6 or 7 fig profits and that's why they have the cabale vibes (among other things)
I like it WAY MORE when the meme develops progressively or when there are long periods of consolidation/range and the supply gets distributed into stronger hands with higher timeframes
Some people are trading the exact opposite way : ape the new launches very early and sometimes you will get a 100x in a day. You just have to know what your trading style is, and where your edge is.
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