Bitcoin Insights #2 📣

The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path that will end in the destruction of the currency, rampant inflation, and increased risk of bankruptcy.

In this video, I take a look at the federal budget, its components, and the projected future path.

https://youtu.be/ss-U7rE3Dac

Heavy sell pressure on the bitcoin ETFs today

🚨 Market turmoil got you concerned?

Check out this article by our COO Sina who breaks down why the markets are crashing – recession fears, major trades blowing up, and geopolitical tensions.

https://21stcapital.com/three-reasons-why-the-markets-are-crashing/

Futures capitulation is beginning!!!

Long capitulating and the bias of the market is turning bearish.

Why are the markets crashing?

The S&P & Dow had their worst day since 2022, and investors are panic selling due to a confluence of three deadly forces crushing hopes for a soft landing.

In this 12-min video, I explain these factors & how I think they will play out.

https://x.com/Sina_21st/status/1820623837404311683

The job market is teetering on the edge of a cliff.

We have had three months of back-to-back declines in job creation, which, if continued, could trigger a recession.

#Clip

Now available on Youtube. Please, subscribe to our YT channel if you find value in our videos.

https://youtu.be/zkw5K_KDVYQ

This is what triggered a global-scale sell-off of every major asset class.

This is how unstable the system is.

S&P + 6% Bitcoin > NASDAQ

Analysis: What would happen if you add Bitcoin to an S&P 500 portfolio?

- At 6% BTC you get to the same performance as Nasdaq with less vol
- The more BTC you blend, the better CAGR but also higher vol. The more tolerance for volatility, the more reward in CAGR.
- Bonds and traditional 60-40 are just lower-risk positions on the same vol-return curve.
- Russell has been volatile and low-return: worst!

(analysis period: 2020-01-01 to now)

UPDATE: Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index

- The chart got a new look & rescaled to 0-100.
- VPLI is at 42 right now, indicating the market is cool, and Bitcoin is undervalued.
- The Power Law fair value at $73K, significantly higher than the current price of $61K.

1008 institutions have already reported holding Bitcoin ETFs in Q2 in their 13F disclosures.

This compares to 874 institutions in Q1, or a 15% increase.

This is despite the market trading downward in Q2.

This is our Nostr pubkey!

We're now available on Nostr!

Show us some love! 🧡💜

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Is Mr. 100 for real?

https://x.com/sina_21st/status/1825962704319950872?s=46&t=6I9aEqV-RwcladB-FBo9kg

The Fed is Finally Cutting the Interest Rate. Is it Bullish for Asset Prices?

In today's video, I'll discuss the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed rate cuts, inflation data, labor market, recession risks, and what the market might do next.

Everything you need to about the Fed actions in 16 minutes.

Check it out!

@TwentyFirstCapital

https://youtu.be/gCeZdgYbt8g

On August 30th, Michael Saylor unveiled a suite of Bitcoin models forecasting its price over the coming decades under bear, base, and bull scenarios.

Giovanni Santostasi and Sina dive into these models, exploring their assumptions and price predictions.

Giovanni is the creator of the Bitcoin Power Law theory, which is a powerful tool for modeling and predicting Bitcoin price.

https://youtu.be/v6QObGxqMCM

@TwentyFirstCapital

Bitcoin Price follows an interest pattern

What really matters for Bitcoin's price appreciation is its age, not pure calendar time!

The rate of return is proportional to age.

Here I show that Bitcoin goes 15x higher with every 85% increase in age.

After all, Bitcoin's growth is not that volatile.

https://x.com/sina_21st/status/1831492454748713342